It's also possible that a lower TCR would simply indicate
a longer equilibrium response time.
Not exact matches
A GCM with relatively low transient
response but relatively high
equilibrium sensitivity probably has large thermal inertia, therefore will take
longer to equilibrate, and vice versa.
The disequilibrium referred to comes from the fact that the ocean has a lot of thermal inertia and takes a
long time to warm up, whereas the atmosphere has a short
response time and quickly comes into
equilibrium with any given ocean temperature, corresponding to the current amount of greenhouse gases.
Starting from an old equilbrium, a change in radiative forcing results in a radiative imbalance, which results in energy accumulation or depletion, which causes a temperature
response that approahes
equilibrium when the remaining imbalance approaches zero — thus the
equilibrium climatic
response, in the global - time average (for a time period
long enough to characterize the climatic state, including externally imposed cycles (day, year) and internal variability), causes an opposite change in radiative fluxes (via Planck function)(plus convective fluxes, etc, where they occur) equal in magnitude to the sum of the (externally) imposed forcing plus any «forcings» caused by non-Planck feedbacks (in particular, climate - dependent changes in optical properties, + etc.).)
Physically, C1 can be thought of as representing the concentration of CO2 in
long - term stores such as the deep ocean; C1 + C2 as representing the CO2 concentration in medium - term stores such as the thermocline and the
long - term soil - carbon storage; and C = C1 + C2 + C3 as the concentration of CO2 in those sinks that are also in
equilibrium with the atmosphere on time scales of a year or less, including the mixed layer, the atmosphere itself and rapid -
response biospheric stores.
The
equilibrium climate
response to anthropogenic forcing has
long been one of the dominant, and therefore most intensively studied, uncertainties in predicting future climate change.
The
longer term sensitivity he means needs feedbacks that are slower than the
response of the ocean to come up to an approximate thermal
equilibrium.
This is particularly true for a
long term
response to CO2 forcing, because of the major role of the deep ocean (down to 4000 meters and even below) in
long term heat storage needed for
equilibrium.
For a slow feedback climate sensitivity of 6 C for doubled CO2, the
equilibrium temperature
response would be expected to take much
longer (at least several millennia), since this
response has been shown to be a strong function of climate sensitivity (Hansen et al., 1985).