The study also looked at «long» fire seasons, defined as any season more than one standard deviation
longer than the historical average season for that area.
Not exact matches
World growth will remain low on
average but negative in the UK and Europe; price inflation will remain sufficiently subdued for a while
longer so as to impose no constraint on monetary expansion; central banks will sustain a regime of negative real interest rates and rapid monetary expansion; the risk of a eurozone collapse is off the table for now; finally, stock markets should continue to perform better
than expected, even though the four - year old cyclical bull market is
long by
historical standards.
This leaves roughly 1.4 % of
historical long - term returns which can be attributed to past expansion in the Price / Earnings multiple (i.e. over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster
than the 5.7 %
average rate of earnings growth).
This is interesting because it's different
than what we've seen from the majority of hedgies who as of late are only 25 % net
long, well below the
historical average as hedge funds have been selling equities.
Or even better, «stories could place
long - term growth in
historical perspective, telling voters whether it was better or worse
than average.»
Since 1996, the US CAPE ratio has been above its
long - term simple
average (16.6) 96 % of the time, and above 24, roughly one standard deviation above its
historical norm, more
than two - thirds of the time.
This leaves roughly 1.4 % of
historical long - term returns which can be attributed to past expansion in the Price / Earnings multiple (i.e. over the past 50 years, prices have grown somewhat faster
than the 5.7 %
average rate of earnings growth).
Currently, there is clear evidence that future expectations should be significantly lower
than the
long term
historical averages.