«It is now
the longest cyclical bull market on record.
Not exact matches
World growth will remain low on average but negative in the UK and Europe; price inflation will remain sufficiently subdued for a while
longer so as to impose no constraint on monetary expansion; central banks will sustain a regime of negative real interest rates and rapid monetary expansion; the risk of a eurozone collapse is off the table for now; finally, stock
markets should continue to perform better than expected, even though the four - year old
cyclical bull market is
long by historical standards.
After the third
longest bull market advance on record, fresh deterioration in key trend - following components within our measures of
market internals (see Support Drops Away) recently joined this extended, overvalued, overbought, overbullish peak, even as the S&P 500 hovers at the top of its monthly Bollinger bands (two standard deviations above the 20 - period average) and
cyclical momentum rolls over from a 9 - year high.
However, the age of this
bull market does suggest risks are rising, and that to expect it to last much
longer without a
cyclical downturn would be stretching historical probability.
Are we in a short - term
cyclical bull market, one that is already
long in the tooth and coming to an end?
Within these
long trends there are shorter
cyclical bull and bear
market trends that generally last 2 - 3 years.
As you can see, there were
cyclical bull and bear
markets during this
long term secular bear
market.
As you can see, this secular bear
market was typical of most secular bear
markets, such as the one from 1966 - 1982, composed of mostly vicious
cyclical bull and bear
markets that result in a mostly sideways
long term movement.