Trading infrequently, play in the green zone — don't look for momentum,
look for mean reversion.
The contrarian approach is to
look for mean reversion in both fundamentals and valuation.
Claugus is also very interesting in that he generally trades against the market,
looking for mean reversion situations.
Not exact matches
I'm actively
looking at my debt and determining if it makes more sense to pay down mortgages (locking in a guaranteed ~ 4 % return) or investing in bonds (~ 1 % returns if held to maturity) or stocks (uncertain, but I just wrote an article about the current PE ratio and the inevitable
reversion to the
mean and I believe we are likely headed
for 10 years of low single digit returns).
Because of a rougher -
looking schedule than in years (I
mean, who really knows until halfway through the season — it was a big surprise to most that the AFCW wasn't tougher in 2017
for instance, or that the NYG would suck so epically), and no Shazier, and general
reversion to the
mean, and no particular reason to think Ben will be available
for every game... I'll say 10 -5-1 with losses @ Tampa, @ Cin, Carolina, @ Denver, LAC.
Value managers are usually
looking for a
reversion to a
mean; trying to identify assets that they consider undervalued at this point but that they think are going to come back.
Looking at this data, at least, the evidence seems strong that a high CAPE today goes with lower stock returns in future periods, with the
mean reversion becoming stronger
for longer time periods.
All these things
look ripe
for mean reversion, which seems to be a key skill in deep value investing.
It is because of you guys that I have started
looking into
mean reversion strategies
for stocks.
I don't have a lot of faith in the market as a whole, so I am biased toward the green zone,
looking for mean -
reversion, rather than momentum persisting.
So if you are
looking at something like professional swimming and recording the lap time
for Michael Phelps, it won't be a revelation that the outcome (lap timings) stays pretty much consistent with very little scope
for reversion to the
mean.
«
For those reasons, we see a
mean reversion play out over the coming months as players
look to cash in and late - coming bulls are flushed, with support in the $ 400s, at which point a pump and dump cycle may start once again,» he said.