Additionally, we think of value as a forward - looking concept, as opposed to a static or backward -
looking valuation multiple.
Not exact matches
So we took a
look at our data on private market
valuation multiples to see how publicly - traded cloud storage and file - sharing company Box compares to still - private Dropbox.
Given its current
valuation, comparable
valuation multiples and the very high bar for revenue growth required, it
looks like Dropbox is overvalued.
Stocks can see their PE
multiples expand and contract in a manner that has almost nothing to do with changes in EPS, which makes
looking at these metrics a poor indicator of
valuation or future returns.
It doesn't matter whether one
looks at basic measures such as median
valuation multiples over the past (bull market) decade, or whether one uses a more complex discounted cash flow model.
As you can see below, these forward
valuation multiples make the stock
look attractive compared to the kind of
multiples it's traded at in recent years.
A 6.8 x
multiple would imply a
valuation of about $ 8.50 / share when using my estimates for how MEG's capitalization will
look post the BH Media transaction and accounting for BH Media's warrants.
Still, we see the economic and earnings backdrop as positive for equities, with fuller
valuations a potential drag, especially in the U.S. Equities in Japan, the only major region to see
multiple contraction in 2017,
look well positioned.
Finally,
looking at
valuation, European banks traded at a material discount to tangible book value, one standard deviation3 below their historic forward price - earnings
multiple, and near a 20 - year low relative to global banking peers as the year came to a close.4 We are also finding select financial sector values in Asia, in both mature, under - earning banking markets like South Korea and Singapore, as well as underpenetrated, growth - oriented markets like China (particularly in insurance) and India (particularly in banking).
«They are often
looking to capitalize on building a brand capable of commanding the high
valuation multiples that have dominated the industry over the past few years.
Investors
looking for better opportunities with less stretched
valuations should reconsider international markets, particularly Japan, where
multiples can still provide a lift for stocks.
In the case of the latter, he
looks at divesting a business that is either dragging down the companies
valuation multiple or not getting the
multiple it deserves.
Gabelli says he either
looks at recent
valuations of similar acquisitions or applies an appropriate historical industry acquisition
multiple to arrive at the PMV.
Rather than rely on past averages to forecast future returns, we use a building - block approach that adds current yield, likely long - term growth in income, and some mean reversion in
valuation multiples to create forward -
looking returns.
Let's
look at what happened to the change in the CAPE
valuation multiple and its contribution to total returns in the 1960s, which was an environment of low interest rates to start with which moved higher over the decade.
This
valuation looks inexpensive on an absolute basis, and especially when we factor in the high earnings growth expectations: With a PE
multiple of 15.6 and an expected EPS growth rate of 21 % Lowe's trades at a PEG ratio of just 0.74.
A 6.8 x
multiple would imply a
valuation of about $ 8.50 / share when using my estimates for how MEG's capitalization will
look post the BH Media transaction and accounting for BH Media's warrants.
In fact, the Monaghan stake is ultimately responsible for my
valuation premium to Book: A 15 P / E
multiple for this stake may seem aggressive, but it's on what
looks like a temporary profit dip, and the implied
valuation is undemanding considering their recent EUR 100 mio capex programme.
Again, I'll highlight this Barrons piece on YouTube — the numbers are really astonishing — but
looking at some of the
valuations already out there in the market, I can't necessarily disagree YouTube (plus Google Cloud, and possibly other units too) would likely get valued at significantly higher sales
multiples than Alphabet currently commands.