Not exact matches
Scientific observations show that in the Arctic, warming temperatures have led to a 75 %
loss in
sea ice volume since the 1980s, and recent reports suggest the Arctic Ocean will be nearly free
of summer
sea ice by 2050, said Sullivan.
In comparison, global
sea levels are rising
by about 3 millimetres a year, and a recent study estimated that one - third
of that comes from
ice loss in Antarctica and Greenland.
«I've accepted that the
loss of sea ice, not subsistence [hunting
of the animal] or the oil and gas industries, is the reason for the threat to the polar bears,» which are already protected
by the more stringent Marine Mammal Protection Act
of 1972, Kempthorne said.
«
By refining the spatial pattern
of mass
loss in the world's second largest — and most unstable —
ice sheet, and learning how that pattern has evolved, we are steadily increasing our understanding
of ice loss processes, which will lead to better - informed projections
of sea level rise.»
Antarctic
sea ice saw an early maximum extent in 2016, followed
by a very rapid
loss of ice starting in early September.
He says previous predictive models
of Greenland's
ice loss did not adequately take into account the faster movement
of its southern glaciers, which is accelerating the amount
of ice entering the ocean: «Greenland is probably going to contribute more to
sea level rise, and faster than predicted
by these models.»
The IPCC's latest prediction for
sea level rise — 0.2 to 0.6 metres
by 2100 — takes this
ice loss into account but it is based on the assumption that the rate
of ice loss will remain constant.
Arctic
sea ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next few decades could impact California's rainfall and exacerbate future droughts, according to new research led
by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) scientists.
Ocean waters melting the undersides
of Antarctic
ice shelves, not icebergs calving into the
sea, are responsible for most
of the continent's
ice loss, a study
by UC Irvine and others has found.
Complementary analyses
of the surface mass balance
of Greenland (Tedesco et al, 2011) also show that 2010 was a record year for melt area extent... Extrapolating these melt rates forward to 2050, «the cumulative
loss could raise
sea level
by 15 cm
by 2050 ″ for a total
of 32 cm (adding in 8 cm from glacial
ice caps and 9 cm from thermal expansion)- a number very close to the best estimate
of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009), derived
by linking the observed rate
of sea level rise to the observed warming.
During the later period, when there was less
sea ice, the whales dove significantly longer and deeper than in the earlier period — presumably in search
of prey as the animals, in turn, changed their habits because
of different ocean conditions brought on
by sea ice loss.
The World Conservation Union projects the bears» numbers will drop
by 30 %
by 2050 (pdf) due to continued
loss of Arctic
sea ice.
Screen, J. A. & Francis, J. A. Contribution
of sea ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated
by Pacific Ocean decadal variability.
The estimates
of ice loss also helped them calculate the amount
of sea level rise contributed
by the
ice sheet prior to 1990 — a number missing from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report because
of the lack
of direct observations.
The
loss of Arctic
sea ice caused
by climate warming is having world - wide effects on shipping, fishing, and human life.
Many scientists concede that without drastic emissions reductions
by 2020, we are on the path toward a 4C rise as early as mid-century, with catastrophic consequences, including the
loss of the world's coral reefs; the disappearance
of major mountain glaciers; the total
loss of the Arctic summer
sea -
ice, most
of the Greenland
ice - sheet and the break - up
of West Antarctica; acidification and overheating
of the oceans; the collapse
of the Amazon rainforest; and the
loss of Arctic permafrost; to name just a few.
«The region is profoundly affected
by climate change — including
loss of sea ice, acidification
of the ocean, and increased access for industries that pose significant risks to the ocean environment.»
One study, published in Proceedings
of the National Academy
of Sciences in January, hinted at such a mechanism when it linked
sea ice decline to apparent changes in the Arctic Oscillation during several winters preceded
by large
sea ice losses.
Such research is now becoming urgent as regional climate change is already impacting upon areas
of West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula [30] and colonies in this region may already be affected
by the consequent
loss of sea ice [8].
Total
loss of the Arctic
sea ice, caused
by increasing CO2, will be catastrophic.
The motivation for this time series is to visualize the fact that the long term Arctic - wide
loss of sea ice is not only happening in extent, which is well measured
by satellites, but also in thickness, which isn't.
This
loss is exacerbated by the intensifying Climate Destabilization (reportedly reflecting the start of the «Albedo Loss» feedback due to the decline of Arctic sea - ice and ice caps) which is suppressing subsistence farm yields and some commercial farm yields on a random basis by the impacts of extreme droughts, storms, floods, and heat and cold wa
loss is exacerbated
by the intensifying Climate Destabilization (reportedly reflecting the start
of the «Albedo
Loss» feedback due to the decline of Arctic sea - ice and ice caps) which is suppressing subsistence farm yields and some commercial farm yields on a random basis by the impacts of extreme droughts, storms, floods, and heat and cold wa
Loss» feedback due to the decline
of Arctic
sea -
ice and
ice caps) which is suppressing subsistence farm yields and some commercial farm yields on a random basis
by the impacts
of extreme droughts, storms, floods, and heat and cold waves.
I don't know about the «freakout» claim, but I believe Peter Wadhams» ideas / estimates regarding the
loss of arctic
sea ice are going to prove to be much more accurate than the IPCC estimates that
sea ice will be gone
by midcentury.
The lag between decreases in
sea ice extent during late summer and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation during other seasons (like autumn and winter, when the recent
loss of sea ice is much smaller) have been demonstrated empirically, but have not been captured
by existing dynamical models.
However, the idea is simple, and I've talked about this much in many presentations this winter: Take the amount
of ice you need to get rid
of from Greenland to raise
sea level 2 m in the next century, reduce it
by your best estimate
of the amount that would be removed
by surface mass balance
losses, and try to push the rest out
of the aggregate cross-sectional area
of Greenland's marine - based outlet glaciers.
By my logic I'd apply the precautionary principle rather strongly if there was even a small chance
of major effects such as near future
sea ice loss...
If I understand AMEGs argument correctly, it is that we need to find engineering solutions in the Arctic to alleviate an effective emergency (on a basis
of precautionary principle at very least) posed
by possible majority
loss of sea ice or escalation in methane release.
Although a recent downward trend in coverage is clearly visible
by naked eye inspection, Goddard invites us to believe there has ``... been no net gain or
loss of polar
sea ice since records began.»
Average winter
sea ice volume over the period, weighted
by a
loss of ∼ 3000 km3 between 2007 and 2008, was ∼ 14,000 km3.
Unfortunately, the tough scientific work to clarify
ice and
sea trends and dynamics has largely been obscured online
by coverage focused on an error on Greenland
ice loss that many polar scientists say made it into the new edition
of the Times Comprehensive Atlas
of the World (that's the British Times, just to be clear).
A typo in mine at # 25 is where 40,000 m3 should read 400,000 m3, and an addendum is the reference for the forcing from the Albedo
Loss feedback shown in the satellite record: «Observational determination
of albedo decrease caused
by vanishing Arctic
sea ice» See: http://eisenman.ucsd.edu/publications/Pistone-Eisenman-Ramanathan-2014.pdf
Combined climate /
ice sheet model estimates in which the Greenland surface temperature was as high during the Eemian as indicated
by the NEEM
ice core record suggest that
loss of less than about 1 m
sea level equivalent is very unlikely (e.g. Robinson et al. (2011).
Alarmed at the pace
of change to our Earth caused
by human - induced climate change, including accelerating melting and
loss of ice from Greenland, the Himalayas and Antarctica, acidification
of the world's oceans due to rising CO2 concentrations, increasingly intense tropical cyclones, more damaging and intense drought and floods, including glacial lakes outburst loods, in many regions and higher levels
of sea - level rise than estimated just a few years ago, risks changing the face
of the planet and threatening coastal cities, low lying areas, mountainous regions and vulnerable countries the world over,
It's also worth noting that the area
of sea ice coverage is influenced
by the wind, and the rapid area
loss of last summer was mainly wind - driven — but thin
sea ice is more sensitive to wind forcing than thick
sea ice is.
The fate
of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is determined
by a complicated mix
of factors, including the pressure changes, with the biggest
loss of old thick
ice resulting more from a great «flush»
of floes than melting, Dr. Rigor and many other scientists tracking the region say.
In addition to the
loss of old thick
sea ice, the increased mobility of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea is consistent with the high sea ice mobility seen in the Atlantic sector by the drift of the «TARA» during the DAMOCLES experiment (Gascard, EOS, V
sea ice, the increased mobility
of sea ice in the Beaufort Sea is consistent with the high sea ice mobility seen in the Atlantic sector by the drift of the «TARA» during the DAMOCLES experiment (Gascard, EOS, V
sea ice in the Beaufort
Sea is consistent with the high sea ice mobility seen in the Atlantic sector by the drift of the «TARA» during the DAMOCLES experiment (Gascard, EOS, V
Sea is consistent with the high
sea ice mobility seen in the Atlantic sector by the drift of the «TARA» during the DAMOCLES experiment (Gascard, EOS, V
sea ice mobility seen in the Atlantic sector
by the drift
of the «TARA» during the DAMOCLES experiment (Gascard, EOS, Vol.
The part you are missing is that in the Arctic, the
loss of summer
sea ice, results in a strong reduction in reflection
of the sunlight, and absorption
by the open ocean.
In case
of achieving the 450 Scenario, that for instance requires all industrialised nations to reduce their GHG emissions
by 25 - 40 percent between 1990 and 2020, Arctic summer
sea ice would recover from around 2035 - quite sharply - and establish a new equilibrium state at around 2.5 million square kilometres
of ice, still a
loss of almost 2 million compared to the current situation.
Models created
by experts said such a dramatic
loss of sea ice would cause a sharp drop in the polar bear population and threaten their very survival.
Australian Antarctic Division glaciology program head Ian Allison said
sea ice losses in west Antarctica over the past 30 years had been more than offset by increases in the Ross Sea region, just one sector of east Antarcti
sea ice losses in west Antarctica over the past 30 years had been more than offset
by increases in the Ross
Sea region, just one sector of east Antarcti
Sea region, just one sector
of east Antarctica.
It has come to the point that if we continue losing mass in those areas, the
loss can generate a self - reinforcing feedback whereby we will be losing more and more
ice, ultimately raising
sea levels
by tens
of feet.»
Shaye Wolf, climate science director for the Center for Biological Diversity, the conservation group that launched legal action to get Pacific walruses listed in 2008, told Earther that the agency's claim that walruses will adapt to climate change «is baseless, and simply doesn't match the science showing that walruses are being harmed
by the devastating
loss of their
sea ice habitat.»
A rise in global mean
sea level
of between 0.09 and 0.88 metres
by 2100 has been projected, mainly due to the thermal expansion
of sea water and
loss of mass from
ice caps and glaciers».
By contrast atmospheric temperature amplification is not evident in the Antarctic which is insulated by relatively stable circumpolar winds, persistent sea - ice coverage and the loss of tropospheric ozon
By contrast atmospheric temperature amplification is not evident in the Antarctic which is insulated
by relatively stable circumpolar winds, persistent sea - ice coverage and the loss of tropospheric ozon
by relatively stable circumpolar winds, persistent
sea -
ice coverage and the
loss of tropospheric ozone.
Provided that ocean and atmospheric conditions favor rapid melting in June and July, which we feel are still likely, it is therefore hypothesized that the 2013 fall
sea ice extent will achieve values comparable to those
of 2012, with regional
losses governed
by local wind and
ice conditions and dynamics.
The divergence in timing
of sea ice loss between models and data — decades as represented
by ice volume in Figure 3 — is physically irreconcilable.
The International Conservation Union, in its latest red list
of endangered wildlife, gave polar bears threatened status in May, projecting a decline
of 30 percent
by midcentury from current populations, mainly due to projected
losses of sea ice in a warming world.
The northern melting will likely add to
sea level rise explains lead author, Shfaqat Abbas Khan: «If this activity in northwest Greenland continues and really accelerates some
of the major glaciers in the area — like the Humboldt Glacier and the Peterman Glacier — Greenland's total
ice loss could easily be increased
by an additional 50 to 100 cubic kilometers (12 to 24 cubic miles) within a few years.»
If both Greenland and West Antarctica shed the entirety
of their
ice burden, global
sea levels would rise
by 12 to 14 m. Although these icecaps would not disintegrate within a century, the
loss of even a third
of their mass — quite plausible if the rate
of polar
ice loss continues to double each decade — would force up the oceans
by at least 4 m, with disastrous socioeconomic and environmental consequences.
-LSB-...] In fact, the global
sea -
ice record shows virtually no change throughout the past 30 years, because the quite rapid
loss of Arctic
sea ice since the satellites were watching has been matched
by a near - equally rapid gain
of Antarctic
sea ice.