Channel 4 News spoke to former MPs who
lost their marginal seats in May and to candidates who lost, despite standing in seats where there had been a sitting Labour MP.
Channel 4 News spoke to former MPs who
lost their marginal seats in May and to candidates who lost, despite standing in seats where there had been a sitting Labour MP.They all aspire to win back the seats Labour will need to secure if the party is to return to government.
In any analysis of the 2015 general election defeat it would follow logically that the best accounts could be given by those that fought and
lost marginal seats.
Labour
lost the marginal seat of Derby North last year to the Conservatives, after holding it since 1997.
Not exact matches
It clearly shows that in these
marginal seats, the key battleground
seats where the general election will be won and
lost, voters are very concerned about threats to religious liberty and free speech.
Councillors that won
marginal seats on a tide of national popularity for their party are most likely to
lose them when the tide ebbs.
In the key
marginal of Thanet South in Kent, the Conservative party are set to
lose the
seat to Labour with Ukip coming a close second, according to the first of eight new constituency polls.
He is almost as old as I am,
lost three councillors in Eastleigh the other day via defections, Eastleigh is a pretty
marginal seat.
@Don: cut defence spending or Trident and
lose a bunch of
marginal seats — most of the $ on Trident goes to the US, so you could always announce conventional weapons programmes providing the same jobs in whichever docks would
lose out.
cut defence spending or Trident and
lose a bunch of
marginal seats.
Well done, Sunder, for not mentioning Labour's record on tax (up for the lower - paid, down for the rich), ID cards and 3,000 new crimes, increase in inequality,
lost personal data, obsession with targets rather than actual service delivery — and in consequence the fact that in many
marginal seats a couple of dozen Labour activists will be opposing a couple of hundred Tory volunteers...
Although gaining 22
seats, Labour
lost all but one of its MPs in Scotland and ended up with a net loss of 26
seats, failing to win a number of key
marginal seats that it had expected to win comfortably.
My study of the most
marginal seats the Lib Dems were defending against Labour and the Conservatives, published in June, found the party on course to
lose most of its most vulnerable
seats, with a few notable exceptions.
If Nigel Farage wins 2,000 to 3,000 unhappy Tories in each of the key
marginals, he has written, the party could
lose thirty
seats and install Ed Miliband in Number 10 Downing Street.
There will be
marginal seats that Labour unexpectedly holds, and safe
seats it unexpectedly
loses.
But from those that were, we can see a picture that is both grim and variable - Labour
losing its ultra-
marginals, in with half a chance of clinging onto one or two slightly more solid
marginals, in danger of
losing some of its semi-
marginals, and at risk of
losing rock solid safe
seats in long - standing Labour heartlands.
First, the background: the party of the president in office essentially always
loses seats in the mid-term elections (2002 was a post-9 / 11 one - off), a tendency likely to be reinforced in 2010 by the fact that so many Democrats rode the Obama wave to win
marginal districts in» 08.
The pamphlet, by the Labour - affiliated Fabian Society and Policy Network thinktank, admits Labour has
lost ground among the DE bottom social group but says it will only restore its electoral fortunes if it performs better among white - collar and skilled workers, who are strongly represented in
marginal seats in the South and Midlands.
Both the main parties could count on winning hundreds of safe
seats each and the electoral battle would be won or
lost in a smaller number of key
marginal seats.
Every
marginal seat is unique, and the reasons why one
seat is won and another
seat is
lost will vary markedly.
But Labour
lost control of Derby, where the Jeremy Corbyn - supporting Chris Williamson is an MP, and
lost Nuneaton and Bedworth, classic Westminster
marginal territory, for only the second time in 44 years after the Tories gained eight
seats.
The term «Portillo moment» is too often used merely to describe a well - known MP
losing his or her (often
marginal)
seat.
Recent polling of key
marginal seats by Lord Ashcroft found that Cameron's party can afford to
lose no more than 21
seats to Labour in order to remain the largest party in parliament.
«Internet campaigning will never replace personal interaction; knocking on doors and leafleting is still where the battles will be won and
lost - particularly in
marginal seats,» Smith says.
Recent polling of Liberal Democrat
marginals found that while the party faces
losing dozens of
seats to Labour, they could hold on to a surprising number of
seats against the Conservatives.
«In the very close
marginal seats... you will effectively
lose the election for the Labour sitting candidate and get the Tory elected,» he said.
Those guys could vote for Gay marriage without fear of
losing in the future, as opposed to guys in more
marginal seats like Ball or Grisanti.
I'll put up full notional results later on today, but looking at England and Wales as a whole, it looks as if the Conservatives would
lose 10
seats, Labour would
lose 28
seats, the Liberal Democrats would
lose 4 and the Greens would
lose one (by my calculations the new Brighton North would be a close three - way
marginal, with the Conservatives narrowly ahead of Labour).
Among other results, Lord Ashcroft's polls suggested that the growth in SNP support would translate into more than 50
seats; [124] that there was little overall pattern in Labour and Conservative Party
marginals; [125] that the Green Party MP Caroline Lucas would retain her
seat; [126] that both Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and UKIP leader Nigel Farage would face very close races to be elected in their own constituencies; [127] and that Liberal Democrat MPs would enjoy an incumbency effect that would
lose fewer MPs than their national polling implied.
These sorts of distortion can be caused by several factors, including tactical voting (as perhaps in Birmingham), electoral pacts (as perhaps in North East Lincolnshire), one party piling up votes in safe
seats but
losing out in
marginals (as in Leeds), or turnout being particularly low in one party's safe
seats (as in Sefton).
Not sure, if this is undetAnd, labour spent more than the Tories in 2005 75 % of labours spending in 1997 came from the private side, and recall 1979 when the closed shop meant everyone had to joina Union, that union had to give money to the labour party, we knew the next election would be the most vicious since 1992 ′ we win the campaign,
lost the election that time, The Tory press isn't as strong as it was then, the tories haven't got
lost of «extremist» stories about labour they had thrn to smear us now, They're a smaller party not just cos of Ukip, But labour has a lot of keen strong members, and it'll come doen to 70 or so
marginal seats what happens, while not
losing our working class votes in Newcastle, birmingham Luton Rotherham, Scotland, and if they're not abstaining, or voting Ukip, we have to ask why they're voting tory
In most elections all we normally have to do is work out what is happening in the Tory - Labour
marginals, adding in a glance at the handful of
seats the Liberal Democrats might gain or
lose.
Even northern
marginal seats like Pendle,
lost last year and surrounded by other
marginal seats which were also
lost last year like Burnley and Colne Valley, will not be allowed to select.
Despite
losing the
seat by just 103 votes at last year's general election and although the Tories are allegedly holding back their campaign at David Cameron's request, Nick Clegg's party trails by 17 points in two separate surveys of voters in the key
marginal.
The Tories may
lose fewer close
marginal seats to Labour than might be expected given even a regional swing.
The analysis concludes that the party has piled up votes in parts of the country where it would make little difference in a general election, while
losing support in key
marginal seats.
However, it will be won or
lost in the 117
marginal seats we need to win in order to gain an overall majority; and it will be won or
lost on the decisions of swing voters in those constituencies.
Seats are divided into six types: Hopeless —
lost by more than 20 points; Little Chance — those lost by 10 - 20 points; Marginal Lost — lost by 0 - 10 points; Marginal Won — won by 0 - 10 points; Safe — won by 10 - 20 points; and Very Safe — won by more than 20 poi
lost by more than 20 points; Little Chance — those
lost by 10 - 20 points; Marginal Lost — lost by 0 - 10 points; Marginal Won — won by 0 - 10 points; Safe — won by 10 - 20 points; and Very Safe — won by more than 20 poi
lost by 10 - 20 points;
Marginal Lost — lost by 0 - 10 points; Marginal Won — won by 0 - 10 points; Safe — won by 10 - 20 points; and Very Safe — won by more than 20 poi
Lost —
lost by 0 - 10 points; Marginal Won — won by 0 - 10 points; Safe — won by 10 - 20 points; and Very Safe — won by more than 20 poi
lost by 0 - 10 points;
Marginal Won — won by 0 - 10 points; Safe — won by 10 - 20 points; and Very Safe — won by more than 20 points.
Policies, attention and money are focused mostly on a few
marginal seats, because that's where elections are won and
lost.
There were only ten
marginal seats where they came second to the Conservatives in 2015,
losing by less than 10 percentage points.
I agree that one Tory is likely to
lose a
seat in Cheshire but the inference of the study appears to be that the Tories will have a
marginal seat in the Wirral (more likely a safe
seat) whilst two Lib Dem
seats in Stockport becomes one «Lib Dem
marginal» of Stockport South.
Tory MP for Nuneaton, Marcus Jones, said Labour
lost «crucial
marginal seats» and that
seats won at Labour's expense were a «great result.»
He
lost the Dems
seats in»08 when operatives from around the state had to leave
marginal campaigns to help bail out his struggling campaign.
The tories should hold this, UKIP and the liberal democrats will
lose out as in a
marginal seat as such, people usually vote for the main competing
seats.
It's the SNP / Lab gap that remains static and the swing from Conservative is now so significant that of their 13
seats they are now projected to
lose 5 and by a substantial margin in the most
marginal of Stirling.
At least in modern times (the post WW2 era), most cabinet ministers have always had safeish
seats, the main reason being that you generally need to have sat for a couple of parliamentary terms to get into the cabinet and if you have a
marginal seat you tend to
lose it before you get to cabinet level.
There are many MPs around that age in Labour inclined
marginals if things get extremely bad for Labour (so starting to
lose seats)
I don't expect major changes in national vote share in 2020 necessarily but we could see UKIP still around 10 - 15 %,
losing votes to the Tories in
marginal seats but profiting from a post referendum backlash at the Tories expense in Essex, Kent and Lincolnshire etc and old labour areas like Sunderland, county Durham, Rotherham, Oldham etc which the Tories have abandoned.
During that period of results of the early morning I even began to believe several more Labour MPs in
marginal seats would even
lose to the Conservatives.
In 1964, he contested the Torrington
seat as the Labour candidate against the Conservative Party incumbent,
losing in what was a traditional Conservative - Liberal
marginal.