Of course the future is not the past and I've been worried about the likelihood
of low bond yields in the future.
As a striking example, the relentless global march toward
lower bond yields over the last 40 years is rather unlikely to persist in the decades to come.
He also believes higher - yielding emerging - market bonds are attractive to institutional investors, given very
low bond yields in developed markets.
Yet low nominal gross domestic product growth and aging populations argue
for lower bond yields than in the past — and sustained demand for high quality bonds.
That's
because low bond yields reduce the odds that you will earn a return that keeps pace with inflation in coming years.
If
ever lower bond yields helped drive greater positive returns in all asset classes, the reverse is likely when they rise.
High stock valuation levels can mean lower expected stock returns, and
low bond yields usually point to lower future bond returns.
As the fixed rates continue to remain at an elevated level — compared to
historical low bond yields — the banks are finding other ways to be socially responsible.
So, even allowing for the difficulties of predicting future interest rate changes, history suggests that
low bond yields today are likely to provide low returns in the future.
On a serious note, I was rotating into utilities instead of bonds because
of low bond yields.
Investors seeking income amid
record low bond yields have flocked to stocks with consistent cash return in recent years.
So as the trend is already pointing to, expect lower risk assets at first,
lower bond yields on a flight to quality but then higher yields once his spending plans are digested and an equity market that might at some point benefit from reflationary policies but with greater risks (lower trade and global openness) and higher volatility.
Portugal has been profiting
from lower bond yields, but as the ECB is expected to gradually lower its government bonds purchases, yields and spreads are expected to rise, which could hamper the improvement in government finances.
The stock market has been jumpy too, and
low bond yields make it almost impossible to grow a nest egg safely.
The SNB's «profit was lifted by a trio of positive forces:
Low bond yields preserved the value of its foreign bonds; higher equity prices raised the value of SNB holdings... and the weaker Swiss currency made those foreign assets worth more in franc terms.»
Composite Treasuries Sentiment: Taking a broader view of bond market sentiment (our composite bond market sentiment indicator combines the signal from futures positioning, fund flows, implied volatility, and global bond market breadth), it's readily apparent that bond market sentiment has seen a reset from relatively stretched bearishness to just on the bullish side of neutral (i.e. the indicator is saying participants have gone from expecting higher bond yields to
expecting lower bond yields).
The question for any investor given today's high stock multiples AND
low bond yields globally is how much this matters not only over an intermediate time frame, but over a period potentially
... Today's historically
low bond yields reflect a fully priced stock market and an economy that is at or near a cyclical peak, he explains, adding, «We're entering a period of diminished expectations.»
While state and local governments may base their contributions on the assumption of roughly 8 percent investment returns, private - sector pensions, as well as most public pensions in other countries, are required to value their liabilities using a
much lower bond yield to capture the fact that pension benefits are guaranteed against market or default risk.
The reasons underlying
incredibly low bond yields are complex and multi-faceted, but one is clear: the U.S. government bond market is forecasting very low, and perhaps negative, inflation.
While CDS rates reflect concerns about Japan's fiscal condition,
low bond yields show that investors see a dearth of viable alternatives to Japanese government debt.
As one attendee said, the only time he ever
saw low bond yields over such a long period was Japan between 1999 and 2013.
It does indeed seem that retiring at times with
particularly low bond yields, which can be expected to increase over time, may not favor rising equity glidepaths during retirement.
But
given low bond yields and modest projected returns for stocks in recent years, a number of retirement experts have cautioned that the 4 % rule might not provide the same margin of safety against running out of money as it has in the past.
Debt will be partly reduced by
record low bond yields — allowing Osborne to argue that by sticking with the programme we win market confidence and can afford to direct more money to schools and hospitals.
Advisors should give fixed indexed annuities (FIAs) a serious look because FIAs offer a compelling story in an era
of low bond yields, according to Roger G. Ibbotson, one of the most recognizable names in finance.
Given our expectations
for lower bond yields over the next decade we see the 50/50 and 40/60 portfolios delivering lower returns going forward of potentially 6.4 % and 5.8 %, respectively.
The analysts added that these scenarios could lead to major rallies in rates and thus lead to
lower bond yields.
I noted a week ago that Bernanke had essentially eased monetary policy by spurring a loosening of financial conditions via higher stock prices,
lower bond yields, tighter credit spreads, and a weakening of the U.S. dollar.
Low bond yields and tumultuous equity markets had scuppered many a retirement plan.
I'm suspecting the problem they're really supposed to solve but that nobody wants to come out and admit is
low bond yields.
In May, Fed chair Janet Yellen chose to «highlight that equity market valuations at this point generally are quite high,» adding that «there are potential dangers there» — particularly because valuations may be high partially as a result of
low bond yields, and yields could spike when the Fed raises rates.
So assuming earnings growth is not affected, slower inflation and
lower bond yields might support higher P / E levels.
Quantitative easing is a process via which the Fed purchases mortgage - backed securities (MBS) and other bonds in the open market in order to
lower bonds yields and everyday mortgage rates.
Still, the continued benign monetary environment and
low bond yields should mitigate the size of any correction, and the systematic impact will likely be limited.
For example, leaving aside Japan, among the industrial countries the gap between the country with the highest bond yields and that with
the lowest bond yields has fallen to less than 2 percentage points (Graph 31).
Fed up with
low bond yields, the most conservative investors on the planet have begun to load up on stocks.
«The BoJ's monetary easing... has had a statistically significant impact on
lowering bond yields and improving equity prices, but no notable impact on inflation expectations.»
Even at today's
low bond yields of 2 %, Maria would receive $ 200,000 every year.