The «smart» component is that the strategy focuses on
low duration bonds, giving a better risk / return profile given where interest rates currently are.
However, currently, extra
low duration bonds and ETFs offer little more than cash for taxable and muni ETFs.
This means that if interest rates rise the price of a high duration bond will fall more than the price of
a low duration bond.
This means that if interest rates rise the price of a high duration bond will fall more than the price of
a low duration bond.
Therefore, you need to hold
lower duration bonds that are not negatively affected as rates rise.
The price of a high duration bond will likely fall more than the price of
a low duration bond when rates rise.
Not exact matches
The
lower a
bond's
duration, i.e. the less «years» of
duration it has, the less volatile its price will be.
In order to understand the impact of longer
duration and
low yields, let's use a real - life example of one of the largest
bond funds today and look back at its history.
Historically, we have seen short
duration bonds have a
lower correlation to stocks, which can be a beneficial ballast when equity markets are down.
My guess is that the
duration is currently a lot
lower, which means that the potential for
bonds to be a buffer if equities sell off is reduced.
DoubleLine Funds for a Rising Rate Environment — Total Return
Bond &
Low Duration Emerging Markets Fixed Income Funds
At that time, the 10 - year Treasury
bond had a
duration of just 6 years (due to the very high coupon payments and yield - to - maturity available), while the S&P 500 had an extraordinarily
low duration of just 16 years.
All else equal, volatility in
bond prices from interest rate moves is higher the longer you go out on the maturity and
duration spectrum and the
lower the level of interest rates.
Interest rate risk Although high yield
bonds have relatively
low levels of interest rate risk for a given
duration or maturity compared to other
bond types, this risk can nevertheless be a factor.
Short
duration bond strategies tend to have
lower yields than long
duration bond strategies, but when interest rates rise, short
duration strategies will experience a smaller price drop.
If the Dollar broke
lower, its likely too that
bonds and
duration would rally; defensives (staples, utes, reits) and growth (tech / biotech / discret) squeeze against crowded value unwinding (fins, energy, indus); yen and euro would squeeze mightily; gold squeezes while copper pukes in a favorite commodities «pair» unwind; HY could reverse weaker vs IG (currently everybody long CCC vs BB on the high beta trade)... this would be the theoretical path to our next pain - trade or even VaR shock.
Low interest rates increase duration, an attribute that helps to describe the price volatility that a bond will exhibit, meaning that low interest rates amplify bond price volatili
Low interest rates increase
duration, an attribute that helps to describe the price volatility that a
bond will exhibit, meaning that
low interest rates amplify bond price volatili
low interest rates amplify
bond price volatility.
The fidelity global inflation linked
bond fund Y has a
duration of 5.5 years which seems to be the
lowest of the funds freely available.
The on - the - run 30 - year
bond has a coupon of 2.25 %, which is about as
low as you can get, which means lots of
duration.
We favor shorter -
duration bonds given their
lower sensitivity to rising rates.
It is a mix of corp
bonds that has a much shorter maturity and
lower duration than do LT treasuries.
The iShares Barclays 10 - 20 Year Treasury
Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TLH) slipped to its
lowest price since March 2012, while its longer -
duration counterpart, the $ 3 billion iShares Barclays 20 + Year Treasury
Bond Fund (NYSEArca: TLT) has erased two years of gains to return to levels not seen since August 2011.
These flows were directed mainly into
lower risk exposures such as shorter
duration bond ETFs and cash equivalent funds.
As there are issues with both money market funds and ultra-short term
bond funds, we recommend that you chose a short - term or
low -
duration bond fund for this purpose.
This also means that triple net lease REITs, which are often used by yield - hungry investors in a
low interest rate environment as
bond alternatives, can be thought of as very long - term
duration bond proxies.
Since interest rates are at historical
lows, we do not recommend investing in long
duration bond funds at this time.
This
lowering of yields has exacerbated another challenge that already existed for traditional
bond portfolios: the spread between
duration and yield, which exacerbates interest rate risk.
Short
duration bond strategies tend to have
lower yields than long
duration bond strategies, but when interest rates rise, short
duration strategies will experience a smaller price drop.
Many investment managers have
lowered the average
duration of their fixed - income investments well below that of the overall
bond market.
The First Asset Long
Duration Fixed Income ETF provides exposure to longer dated government
bonds, with the higher level of income and
lower correlation to equity markets that they provide.
Finally, compared with high - yield corporate
bonds, senior loans offer
lower duration risk, given the floating - rate nature.
Short - term muni
bond investment strategies typically have the shortest
duration targets and the
lowest interest rate risk.
In general, in a rising rate environment the
lower duration favors municipal
bonds.
These flows were directed mainly into
lower risk exposures such as shorter
duration bond ETFs and cash equivalent funds.
Therefore, if you are concerned about price losses on
bonds, you may want to invest in
bonds with
lower durations.
In today's
low - rate environment, the risk - free rate is in the 0.03 % to 2.8 % range, depending on which Treasury instrument with a maturity from one month to 30 years is used (while many models use three - month T - bills, others may use T - notes or T -
bonds depending on the
duration of the analysis period).
The subsequent
low - volatility screening is designed so that
bonds with less risk, as demonstrated by their trading pattern, are selected, while
duration and credit rating are held equal.
Generally, high -
duration bonds will have greater sensitivity to changing interest rates than
lower -
duration bonds.
Usually, yield is higher with these types of
bond strategies than with short
duration, while interest rate risk is
lower than long
duration.
Short
duration bond strategies have historically had
lower yields than long
duration bond strategies, but when interest rates rise, short
duration strategies may experience a smaller price drop.
After a period of about 2 to 3 years, the risk of permanent losses from intermediate
duration bonds is
low.
Each year your
bond moves incrementally closer to maturity, resulting in
lower volatility and shorter
duration and demanding a
lower interest rate.
With a current
duration of 4.85 (Morningstar category average: Investment Grade
Bonds, 6/18/2015), the typical
bond fund is very susceptible to capital losses should interest rates rise from their current
low of 2.35 % to the historical average over the last 30 years of 5.44 %.
Okay, it comes from one simple insight muni investors want
low volatility, which means short
duration bonds, while most municipalities want to lock in long term funding.
Bonds with shorter
durations are less volatile and less sensitive to changes in interest rates, and therefore have a
lower return.
The
bond yields are
lower on the shorter
durations therefore banks get more leverage on the rate side.
Limited
Duration Bond Fund seeks to deliver a high level of current income consistent with
low volatility of principal.
«Emerging markets high - yield
bonds are thus an attractive asset class for the long - term, offering a similarly high yield to US high - yield
bonds, but with a
lower duration and better credit rating.»
Bond prices are impacted by interest rate changes —
bonds with higher
durations carry more risk above and have higher price volatility than
bonds with
lower durations
With the
low duration of its
bond holdings, the fund is clearly trying to protect its investors against rising interest rates.