Not exact matches
Should listings become scarce, their
valuations would climb,
lowering the cost of capital raised on
equity markets and attracting more companies back into the public sphere.
To the extent that
lower Treasury yields are even weakly associated with higher
equity valuations, recognize that this effect is also expressed over time as
lower subsequent stock
market returns.
Indeed, in the past, U.S.
equity markets have been more resilient to tightening monetary conditions if
valuations were flat or
lower over the preceding 12 months.
When
valuations move from elevated levels to historical
lows over the span of several
market cycles, the result is a «secular bear
market» and headlines about the permanent death of
equities.
Now, as many investors worry about a global growth slowdown, rising rates and higher volatility in U.S.
equity markets, dividend growers offer potential opportunities due to their healthy balance sheets, as well as better
valuations, and
lower volatility.
A weaker U.S. dollar, too, has helped in recent months, as have
lower, attractive
valuations relative to developed -
market equities.
Putting aside the performance of bonds during the bear
market beginning in 1980 (both because the starting yields on Treasuries were so high but also because the bear
market was relatively mild as the decline began from relatively
low levels of
valuation), what's interesting about the above chart is how dependably bonds protected a portfolio during
equity bear
markets.
We favor emerging
market (EM)
equities, given structural reforms, improving profitability and
low valuations.
This chart shows the median (because it is less sensitive to outliers) and upper +
lower quartiles of emerging
market equity valuations across countries.
One of my favorite Twitter follows @LadyFOHF shared the below scatter chart from Morgan Stanley that attempted to map areas of the global
market that were both cheap (
valuation ranks at the
lower end of its 10 - year history) and defensive (a
low or negative correlation to global
equities).
Stock
markets are tumbling int he wake of the decision but given the recent strength in
equities, in the face of the rising interest rate expectations, we don't expect a serious move
lower after the decision, despite the
valuation concerns.
The basis for this positioning was our view that international
equities stood to benefit from a longer runway for economic growth, stronger corporate earnings, and
lower valuations relative to the U.S.
market.
One of the great anomalies of investing: The historical long - term outperformance of certain smart beta or factor - based strategies relative to the broader
equity market (think choosing stocks based on their
valuations, momentum,
low volatility or quality metrics such as profitability).
Now, as many investors worry about a global growth slowdown, rising rates and higher volatility in U.S.
equity markets, dividend growers offer potential opportunities due to their healthy balance sheets, as well as better
valuations, and
lower volatility.
Portfolio Manager Mark DeVaul discusses the strength of the U.S. consumer and shares his thoughts on current
market valuations, explaining why he remains optimistic about U.S.
equities in the current
low interest rate environment.
Lower rates do not always and everywhere imply higher
equity valuations — see Japan over the past 25 years — two bear
markets of 60 % each in a ZIRP environment.
And I still prefer European
equities: In my opinion,
lower corporate margins, cheaper
valuations, Europe's position (vs. the US) in the economic cycle, and the ECB's huge & still untapped firepower (vs. that of the Fed), all present a superior risk - reward proposition — in terms of
market upside, and in terms of potential restructuring and M&A.
Moreover, the US stock
market has also been on a multi-year run, which is inducing asset managers to speculate on the sustainability of current
valuations across US capital
markets.1 If a
lower dividend yield is associated with expensive
equities, then a
lower bond yield should indicate expensive Treasuries.
Putting aside the performance of bonds during the bear
market beginning in 1980 (both because the starting yields on Treasuries were so high but also because the bear
market was relatively mild as the decline began from relatively
low levels of
valuation), what's interesting about the above chart is how dependably bonds protected a portfolio during
equity bear
markets.
Low Quality's Round Trip Bad News Bulls Stock Performance Following the Recognition of Recession The Beginning of the Middle Experimenting with the
Market's Median
Valuation Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Expected Misery Index Consumer Spending Break - Down Recessions and the Duration of Bad News Price - to - Sales Ratio May Prove Valuable International
Markets Show Important Divergences Fixed Investment and the Technology Rally Global Yield Curves, Earnings Growth, and Sector Returns Recessions and Stock Prices Adjusting P / E Ratios for the
Market Cycle Private
Equity and
Market Valuation Must Stocks Rise Following a Cut in the Fed Funds Rate?
The outcome is so binary, in hindsight an
equity valuation will be far too
low, or high... I often notice that the
market / investors can ignore debt for long periods of time — i.e. they value a company almost exactly like its debt free peer.
In my opinion, to justify current
equity valuations and experience further gains, stock investors need perpetually
low interest rates and a stable bond
market.
When
market valuations are high the value investor should
lower risk by decreasing portfolio allocation to
equities.
When
market valuations are
low the value investor should take advantage of the improved probability of higher prices by increasing portfolio allocation to
equities.
• Looking at individual
markets again, we see that the most attractive
markets are generally the crisis - ridden European
equity markets and in particular Greece which currently has such
low valuations that real returns over the next five years could come close to 100 %.
Meanwhile, David looks at the
lower interest rate component without specifically considering the high stock
market valuation component (his capital
market expectations are described in Appendix 1, and his stock returns are not related to past stock returns), and he concludes that declining
equity glidepaths are best.