It is currently shown to be in very
low ice concentration in a large embayment formed in the central arctic ice pack.
Low ice concentration should exist from now on in as no heavy Arctic pack ice is available at the entrance to M'Clure Strait to fill it after the summer.
Note open water developing off Siberian and North American coastlines, and areas of
low ice concentration in the central Arctic for the same day as seen in visible - range MODIS imagery (right panel, NASA MODIS Rapid Response System).
Light blues and greens in ocean areas indicate areas of
low ice concentration.
Investigation of sea ice concentrations support this hypothesis with the emergence of
lower ice concentration bands in the southern Beaufort Sea in May 2012 within an increasingly heterogeneous sea ice cover in the Arctic.
Currently (as of July 19), the extent is within 600,000 km2 of that in 2012 and the ice cover has become diffuse (
low ice concentrations) within the Beaufort Sea (Figure 10).
Lower ice concentrations in 2011 relative to 2007 in late May indicate increased sensitivity of the arctic ice cover to atmospheric dynamical forcing, with implications for ice transport during summer.
Because of
the low ice concentrations seen in the Central Arctic Basin I consider a 2012 - like melt scenario still a reasonable possibility.
The AMSR - E image for 5 July (http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/amsre.html) is similar in extent and also shows
lower ice concentrations in the Canadian Beaufort Sea and north along 130 ° E.
The Polarstern reported
low ice concentrations in Baffin Bay at the beginning of August with heavily melted ice remnants (20 - 100m cakes, i.e., small ice floes).
The August update submitted by Arbetter et al. for pan-arctic ice concentration shows
low ice concentrations (1 to 3 - tenths) in the Chukchi Sea in September.
Not exact matches
«While
concentrations measured in Antarctic
ice cores are very
low, the records show that atmospheric
concentrations and deposition rates increased approximately six-fold in the late 1880s, coincident with the start of mining at Broken Hill in southern Australia and smelting at nearby Port Pirie.»
However, the carbon dioxide
concentration in the atmosphere — roughly 290 ppm (parts per million)-- was ca. 110 ppm
lower than the current level, as
ice core data from the Antarctic shows.
Be that as it may, all these studies, despite the large variety in data used, model structure and approach, have one thing in common: without the role of CO2 as a greenhouse gas, i.e. the cooling effect of the
lower glacial CO2
concentration, the
ice age climate can not be explained.
It has long been suspected that the
low solar activity during the Maunder Minimum was one of the causes of the Little
Ice Age, although other factors like a small drop in greenhouse gas
concentrations around 1600 and strong volcanic eruptions during that time likely played a role as well.
NASA's Earth Observatory reports that there was a record
low Arctic sea
ice concentration in June 2005.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its
concentration in the atmosphere, raising temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water /
ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and
ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the global average; decreasing the temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the
lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
Oeschger and his colleagues in Bern were the first to measure the glacial - interglacial change of atmospheric CO2 in
ice cores, showing that atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 during the glacial period was 50 %
lower than the pre-industrial
concentration, a result predicted by Arrhenius nearly a century earlier.
Dr. Archer has worked on the ongoing mystery of the
low atmospheric CO2
concentration during glacial time 20,000 years ago, and on the fate of fossil fuel CO2 on geologic time scales in the future, and its impact on future
ice age cycles, ocean methane hydrate decomposition, and coral reefs.
your evidence for Arctic
ice concentration similar in extent or
lower than current is 1) your personal experience 2) a 1952 ecyclopedia entry describing changing sea
ice cover for one region of the Arctic.
Nevertheless, the record -
low sea
ice concentration is consistent with a shrinking
ice - cap due to a warming.
Alarmed at the pace of change to our Earth caused by human - induced climate change, including accelerating melting and loss of
ice from Greenland, the Himalayas and Antarctica, acidification of the world's oceans due to rising CO2
concentrations, increasingly intense tropical cyclones, more damaging and intense drought and floods, including glacial lakes outburst loods, in many regions and higher levels of sea - level rise than estimated just a few years ago, risks changing the face of the planet and threatening coastal cities,
low lying areas, mountainous regions and vulnerable countries the world over,
With global GHG emissions and
concentrations continuing to increase; with climate change intensifying changes in ecosystems,
ice sheet deterioration, and sea level rise; and with fossil fuels providing more than 80 % of the world's energy, the likelihood seems
low that cooperative actions will prevent increasingly disruptive climate change over the next several decades.
The researchers found a «pronounced change» towards very
low sea
ice concentration in the two seas since 2004.
Therefor, the further you go down in
ice layers, the
lower is the possible max - CO2 -
concentrations.
please read Z. Jaworowski's (with Segalstad and Ono) many papers on this subject of trapped gases in glaciers, where he discusses the over 20 mechanical and chemical processes that make accurate measurements impossible; even in shallow cores above the point where co2 is supposedly permanently trap in
ice cavities in the firn, co2
concentrations are already 20 - 40 %
lower than those measured in air at mauna loa.
Hmmm... tick - tock, ocean heat content goes higher and higher, greenhouse gas
concentrations go higher and higher, Arctic sea
ice volume goes
lower and
lower, ocean PH goes
lower and
lower, Greenland and Antarctic glacial mass goes
lower and
lower... my, that all - powerful AMO better hurry back real soon...
Two papers report analyses of this deep
ice, including the
lowest carbon dioxide
concentration so far measured in an
ice core.
Ice - covered areas range in color from white (highest
concentration) to light blue (
lowest concentration).
Compared to the long - term average, sea
ice concentration north of Alaska and eastern Siberia was especially
low in 2010.
The vulnerable nations declared that they are, «Alarmed at the pace of change to our Earth caused by human - induced climate change, including accelerating melting and loss of
ice from Greenland, the Himalayas and Antarctica, acidification of the world's oceans due to rising CO2
concentrations, increasingly intense tropical cyclones, more damaging and intense drought and floods, including Glacial Lakes Outburst Floods, in many regions and higher levels of sea - level rise than estimated just a few years ago, risks changing the face of the planet and threatening coastal cities,
low lying areas, mountainous regions and vulnerable countries the world over...»
Apparently according to McKay et al 1991
concentrations as
low as 250ppm for extended periods of time (as depicted in the
ice - core) would have led to the extinction of certain C4 plant species and this has not been recorded by paleo - botanists.
Sea
ice concentration from the Hamburg Group, Lars Kaleschke and Tom Agnew suggest that there were large regions of
low sea
ice concentrations (black regions) within the boundary of sea
ice extent at the end of July
2012's sea
ice area and extent were already trending
low this year, but damage done to the thin and
low concentration of
ice by this storm almost ensures that 2012 will eclipse 2007 in all categories as the
lowest sea
ice on record by the time the September
low is set.
Also of note is new data showing large regions of
low sea
ice concentrations within the boundary of sea
ice extent at the end of July.
Arbetter et al. (North American
Ice Service / National
Ice Center); 4.9 Million Square Kilometers; Statistical / Heuristic Despite the reasonably large current extent (14.665 million km2) and compact
concentration (12.461 million km2) in late April, the projected extent for mid-September is another near - record
low (4.852 million km2).
These very
low sea
ice concentration values, however, are not supported by our proxy records (cf., Figs. 3 and 7), suggesting that the Greenland Ice Sheet has probably not strongly deviated from its present hig
ice concentration values, however, are not supported by our proxy records (cf., Figs. 3 and 7), suggesting that the Greenland
Ice Sheet has probably not strongly deviated from its present hig
Ice Sheet has probably not strongly deviated from its present hight.
Whereas the simulations for March and June are all quite similar, the September sea
ice concentration of the central Arctic Ocean is significantly
lower under conditions with a closed Bering Strait and half - flooded shelf seas (Fig. 8, Supplementary Fig. 9).
A marginal
ice zone (MIZ) / polynya situation may also be supported by the presence of
low but significant
concentrations of HBI - III (Fig. 2c).
The other simulations were run under approximated pre-industrial conditions:
lower greenhouse gas
concentrations, cooler sea surface temperatures, and the largest sea
ice extent available from the satellite era (1986/1987).
While sea
ice concentrations were slightly
lower in June during the early LIG (130 ka) and the middle LIG (125 ka) compared to PI
concentrations, the largest difference can be observed in September when sea
ice concentrations during the early and middle LIG were distinctly
lower then those modeled for the PI.
At the end of the melt season, there was a considerable area of
low -
concentration (and likely relatively thin) sea
ice near the
ice edge, particularly in the northern Beaufort / Chukchi Seas.
Very early in the season this whole area already exhibited a significantly
lower sea
ice concentration that accentuated throughout the summer season.
The mean
ice concentration anomaly for June 2013 is 0.9 x 106 square kilometers greater than June 2012, however Arctic sea
ice thicknesses and volumes continue to remain the
lowest on record.
Overall, we find the loss of sea
ice thickness contributes up to 1/3 of the response from loss of sea
ice concentration in the
lower to mid-atmosphere.
These indicators include greenhouse gas
concentrations, temperature of the
lower and upper atmosphere, cloud cover, sea surface temperature, sea - level rise, ocean salinity, sea
ice extent and snow cover.
Sea
ice concentration reached a new record
low in mid-Sept 2012 based on NSIDC data.
Wenk Physics Institute, University of Bern, CH — 3012 Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, Switzerland Studies on air trapped in old polar
ice1, 2 have shown that during the last
ice age, the atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration was probably significantly
lower than during the Holocene — about 200 p.p.m. rather than 270 p.p.m.. Also, Stauffer et al. 3 recently showed by detailed analyses of Greenland
ice cores, that during the
ice age, between about 30,000 and 40,000 yr BP, the atmospheric CO2 level probably varied between 200 and 260 p.p.m..
Multi-year sea
ice has been reduced to such
low levels that the overall September sea
ice extent is largely tied to the fate of the first - year sea
ice, which appears thin or with
low concentrations away from the central Arctic (see AMSR satellite data and the calculations by Lindsay and Rigor).
Including aggregation, in addition to quadrupled
ice nucleus
concentrations aloft or an
ice nucleus reservoir below, allowed the simulations to roughly match the in situ properties when assuming the presence of
low - density dendrites and their aggregates (Fig. 2).