Thinking about the problem in terms of temperature increase for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (which we will probably exceed with current policies and energy trends), even studies that reinforce the skeptical narrative of
low mean climate sensitivity leaves some chance of warming greatly exceeding international goals and historical boundaries (say a 5 percent chance of warming exceeding 4 °C).
Not exact matches
It's not just American companies that have grown lean and
mean in this
climate of
lower oil prices.
A transition to a
low - carbon economy is now inevitable, but this transition comes at a cost, and many of the countries and companies under the greatest threat from
climate change lack the
means to pay for it.
Widening of the tropics would also probably be associated with poleward movement of major extratropical
climate zones due to changes in the position of jet streams, storm tracks,
mean position of high and
low pressure systems, and associated precipitation regimes.
Victor Smetacek, the German oceanographer who led the expedition along with Victor Wajih Naqvi, an Indian geochemist, says that result
means that iron fertilization has a much
lower sequestration potential for atmospheric CO2 and, thus, will play a smaller role in fighting
climate change than previously expected.
This new research takes away the
lower end of
climate sensitivity estimates,
meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3 °C to 5 °C with a doubling of carbon dioxide.»
I don't care about consensus, but for what it's worth: 10 out of 17
means a 59 % consensus that
climate sensitivity is likely to be 2C or
lower and as such global warming is not dangerous according to UN politically agreed criteria.
The whole CAGW — GHG scare is based on the obvious fallacy of putting the effect before the cause.As a simple (not exact) analogy controlling CO2 levels to control temperature is like trying to
lower the temperature of an electric hot plate under a boiling pan of water by capturing and sequestering the steam coming off the top.A corollory to this idea is that the whole idea of a simple
climate sensitivity to CO2 is nonsense and the sensitivity equation has no physical
meaning unless you already know what the natural controls on energy inputs are already ie the extent of the natural variability.
g (acceleration due to gravity) G (gravitational constant) G star G1.9 +0.3 gabbro Gabor, Dennis (1900 — 1979) Gabriel's Horn Gacrux (Gamma Crucis) gadolinium Gagarin, Yuri Alexeyevich (1934 — 1968) Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Center GAIA Gaia Hypothesis galactic anticenter galactic bulge galactic center Galactic Club galactic coordinates galactic disk galactic empire galactic equator galactic habitable zone galactic halo galactic magnetic field galactic noise galactic plane galactic rotation galactose Galatea GALAXIES galaxy galaxy cannibalism galaxy classification galaxy formation galaxy interaction galaxy merger Galaxy, The Galaxy satellite series Gale Crater Galen (c. AD 129 — c. 216) galena GALEX (Galaxy Evolution Explorer) Galilean satellites Galilean telescope Galileo (Galilei, Galileo)(1564 — 1642) Galileo (spacecraft) Galileo Europa Mission (GEM) Galileo satellite navigation system gall gall bladder Galle, Johann Gottfried (1812 — 1910) gallic acid gallium gallon gallstone Galois, Évariste (1811 — 1832) Galois theory Galton, Francis (1822 — 1911) Galvani, Luigi (1737 — 1798) galvanizing galvanometer game game theory GAMES AND PUZZLES gamete gametophyte Gamma (Soviet orbiting telescope) Gamma Cassiopeiae Gamma Cassiopeiae star gamma function gamma globulin gamma rays Gamma Velorum gamma - ray burst gamma - ray satellites Gamow, George (1904 — 1968) ganglion gangrene Ganswindt, Hermann (1856 — 1934) Ganymede «garbage theory», of the origin of life Gardner, Martin (1914 — 2010) Garneau, Marc (1949 ---RRB- garnet Garnet Star (Mu Cephei) Garnet Star Nebula (IC 1396) garnierite Garriott, Owen K. (1930 ---RRB- Garuda gas gas chromatography gas constant gas giant gas laws gas - bounded nebula gaseous nebula gaseous propellant gaseous - propellant rocket engine gasoline Gaspra (minor planet 951) Gassendi, Pierre (1592 — 1655) gastric juice gastrin gastrocnemius gastroenteritis gastrointestinal tract gastropod gastrulation Gatewood, George D. (1940 ---RRB- Gauer - Henry reflex gauge boson gauge theory gauss (unit) Gauss, Carl Friedrich (1777 — 1855) Gaussian distribution Gay - Lussac, Joseph Louis (1778 — 1850) GCOM (Global Change Observing Mission) Geber (c. 720 — 815) gegenschein Geiger, Hans Wilhelm (1882 — 1945) Geiger - Müller counter Giessler tube gel gelatin Gelfond's theorem Gell - Mann, Murray (1929 ---RRB- GEM «gemination,» of martian canals Geminga Gemini (constellation) Gemini Observatory Gemini Project Gemini - Titan II gemstone gene gene expression gene mapping gene pool gene therapy gene transfer General Catalogue of Variable Stars (GCVS) general precession general theory of relativity generation ship generator Genesis (inflatable orbiting module) Genesis (sample return probe) genetic code genetic counseling genetic disorder genetic drift genetic engineering genetic marker genetic material genetic pool genetic recombination genetics GENETICS AND HEREDITY Geneva Extrasolar Planet Search Program genome genome, interstellar transmission of genotype gentian violet genus geoboard geode geodesic geodesy geodesy satellites geodetic precession Geographos (minor planet 1620) geography GEOGRAPHY Geo - IK geologic time geology GEOLOGY AND PLANETARY SCIENCE geomagnetic field geomagnetic storm geometric
mean geometric sequence geometry GEOMETRY geometry puzzles geophysics GEOS (Geodetic Earth Orbiting Satellite) Geosat geostationary orbit geosynchronous orbit geosynchronous / geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) geosyncline Geotail (satellite) geotropism germ germ cells Germain, Sophie (1776 — 1831) German Rocket Society germanium germination Gesner, Konrad von (1516 — 1565) gestation Get Off the Earth puzzle Gettier problem geyser g - force GFO (Geosat Follow - On) GFZ - 1 (GeoForschungsZentrum) ghost crater Ghost Head Nebula (NGC 2080) ghost image Ghost of Jupiter (NGC 3242) Giacconi, Riccardo (1931 ---RRB- Giacobini - Zinner, Comet (Comet 21P /) Giaever, Ivar (1929 ---RRB- giant branch Giant Magellan Telescope giant molecular cloud giant planet giant star Giant's Causeway Giauque, William Francis (1895 — 1982) gibberellins Gibbs, Josiah Willard (1839 — 1903) Gibbs free energy Gibson, Edward G. (1936 ---RRB- Gilbert, William (1544 — 1603) gilbert (unit) Gilbreath's conjecture gilding gill gill (unit) Gilruth, Robert R. (1913 — 2000) gilsonite gimbal Ginga ginkgo Giotto (ESA Halley probe) GIRD (Gruppa Isutcheniya Reaktivnovo Dvisheniya) girder glacial drift glacial groove glacier gland Glaser, Donald Arthur (1926 — 2013) Glashow, Sheldon (1932 ---RRB- glass GLAST (Gamma - ray Large Area Space Telescope) Glauber, Johann Rudolf (1607 — 1670) glaucoma glauconite Glenn, John Herschel, Jr. (1921 ---RRB- Glenn Research Center Glennan, T (homas) Keith (1905 — 1995) glenoid cavity glia glial cell glider Gliese 229B Gliese 581 Gliese 67 (HD 10307, HIP 7918) Gliese 710 (HD 168442, HIP 89825) Gliese 86 Gliese 876 Gliese Catalogue glioma glissette glitch Global Astrometric Interferometer for Astrophysics (GAIA) Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Globalstar globe Globigerina globular cluster globular proteins globule globulin globus pallidus GLOMR (Global
Low Orbiting Message Relay) GLONASS (Global Navigation Satellite System) glossopharyngeal nerve Gloster E. 28/39 glottis glow - worm glucagon glucocorticoid glucose glucoside gluon Glushko, Valentin Petrovitch (1908 — 1989) glutamic acid glutamine gluten gluteus maximus glycerol glycine glycogen glycol glycolysis glycoprotein glycosidic bond glycosuria glyoxysome GMS (Geosynchronous Meteorological Satellite) GMT (Greenwich
Mean Time) Gnathostomata gneiss Go Go, No - go goblet cell GOCE (Gravity field and steady - state Ocean Circulation Explorer) God Goddard, Robert Hutchings (1882 — 1945) Goddard Institute for Space Studies Goddard Space Flight Center Gödel, Kurt (1906 — 1978) Gödel universe Godwin, Francis (1562 — 1633) GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) goethite goiter gold Gold, Thomas (1920 — 2004) Goldbach conjecture golden ratio (phi) Goldin, Daniel Saul (1940 ---RRB- gold - leaf electroscope Goldstone Tracking Facility Golgi, Camillo (1844 — 1926) Golgi apparatus Golomb, Solomon W. (1932 — 2016) golygon GOMS (Geostationary Operational Meteorological Satellite) gonad gonadotrophin - releasing hormone gonadotrophins Gondwanaland Gonets goniatite goniometer gonorrhea Goodricke, John (1764 — 1786) googol Gordian Knot Gordon, Richard Francis, Jr. (1929 — 2017) Gore, John Ellard (1845 — 1910) gorge gorilla Gorizont Gott loop Goudsmit, Samuel Abraham (1902 — 1978) Gould, Benjamin Apthorp (1824 — 1896) Gould, Stephen Jay (1941 — 2002) Gould Belt gout governor GPS (Global Positioning System) Graaf, Regnier de (1641 — 1673) Graafian follicle GRAB graben GRACE (Gravity Recovery and
Climate Experiment) graceful graph gradient Graham, Ronald (1935 ---RRB- Graham, Thomas (1805 — 1869) Graham's law of diffusion Graham's number GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) grain (cereal) grain (unit) gram gram - atom Gramme, Zénobe Théophile (1826 — 1901) gramophone Gram's stain Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) Granat Grand Tour grand unified theory (GUT) Grandfather Paradox Granit, Ragnar Arthur (1900 — 1991) granite granulation granule granulocyte graph graph theory graphene graphite GRAPHS AND GRAPH THEORY graptolite grass grassland gravel graveyard orbit gravimeter gravimetric analysis Gravitational Biology Facility gravitational collapse gravitational constant (G) gravitational instability gravitational lens gravitational life gravitational lock gravitational microlensing GRAVITATIONAL PHYSICS gravitational slingshot effect gravitational waves graviton gravity gravity gradient gravity gradient stabilization Gravity Probe A Gravity Probe B gravity - assist gray (Gy) gray goo gray matter grazing - incidence telescope Great Annihilator Great Attractor great circle Great Comets Great Hercules Cluster (M13, NGC 6205) Great Monad Great Observatories Great Red Spot Great Rift (in Milky Way) Great Rift Valley Great Square of Pegasus Great Wall greater omentum greatest elongation Green, George (1793 — 1841) Green, Nathaniel E. Green, Thomas Hill (1836 — 1882) green algae Green Bank Green Bank conference (1961) Green Bank Telescope green flash greenhouse effect greenhouse gases Green's theorem Greg, Percy (1836 — 1889) Gregorian calendar Grelling's paradox Griffith, George (1857 — 1906) Griffith Observatory Grignard, François Auguste Victor (1871 — 1935) Grignard reagent grike Grimaldi, Francesco Maria (1618 — 1663) Grissom, Virgil (1926 — 1967) grit gritstone Groom Lake Groombridge 34 Groombridge Catalogue gross ground, electrical ground state ground - track group group theory GROUPS AND GROUP THEORY growing season growth growth hormone growth hormone - releasing hormone growth plate Grudge, Project Gruithuisen, Franz von Paula (1774 — 1852) Grus (constellation) Grus Quartet (NGC 7552, NGC 7582, NGC 7590, and NGC 7599) GSLV (Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle) g - suit G - type asteroid Guericke, Otto von (1602 — 1686) guanine Guiana Space Centre guidance, inertial Guide Star Catalog (GSC) guided missile guided missiles, postwar development Guillaume, Charles Édouard (1861 — 1938) Gulf Stream (ocean current) Gulfstream (jet plane) Gullstrand, Allvar (1862 — 1930) gum Gum Nebula gun metal gunpowder Gurwin Gusev Crater gut Gutenberg, Johann (c. 1400 — 1468) Guy, Richard Kenneth (1916 ---RRB- guyot Guzman Prize gymnosperm gynecology gynoecium gypsum gyrocompass gyrofrequency gyropilot gyroscope gyrostabilizer Gyulbudagian's Nebula (HH215)
I'm not saying that this is impossible, just that until somebody does it there's no basis for concluding that higher past variability
means lower climate senstivity.
In other words, if
climate sensitivity is toward the
low end, 2 K is more dangerous than we currently give it credit for, and arguments for
low risk because of
low sensitivity are less valid because that
means that more ecological changes occur for a given temperature change than currently thought.
If a dominance of La Nina / ocean variability, is causing a hiatus, does that
mean climate sensitivity is
lower?
That
means warming would be 1 C (1.8 F)
lower than what would happen if governments did nothing, said Andrew Jones, co-founder of
Climate Interactive, but well above the international goal of keeping warming below 2 degrees C (3.6), which is 1.1 degrees C (2 degrees F) from now.
For example, if tribes migrate (d) to a certain locale or are forced out of an ideal way of life due to cataclysm etc, (such as leaving fruit bearing tropical
climates due to sea level rise in ancient prehistory as seen from underwater megalithic stone temples from around the world) then that does nt
mean their way of life currently is the most ideal that the body thrives on, such as «paleo» diet or atkins diet or other FAD BULLSHIT
low carb, high fat diets that are EXTREMELY HARMFUL AS CITED CONCLUSIVELY.
Ambergris Caye Belize
means warm tropical
climate, white sand beaches, turquoise waters, thick forests, ancient ruins,
low cost of living and friendly people.
The deals are best during the «height» of
low tourism season, but the famously temperate
climate of the Azores
means that an April (or even January!)
The
climate is pretty even with average temperatures varying between the high sixties and
low eighties — however, make no mistake, when the sun comes out it is HOT and humidty can reach 75 % especially between July - December period which
means you need to be well protected against mosquitos.
The lake's high elevation,
climate and isolation
means the risk of many diseases common in Central America is relatively
low.
Climate: Belize is subtropical, with a
mean annual temperature of 80 degrees F. Winter storms may bring the temperature down to the
low 60s.
Environmetrics http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/env.2140/abstract;jsessionid=38E88DBEDFC0F5214703FE5877A722A3.d03t03?systemMessage=Wiley+Online+Library+will+be+disrupted+17+March+from+10-14+GMT+%2806-10+EDT%29+for+essential+maintenance&userIsAuthenticated=false&deniedAccessCustomisedMessage= [from the Knappenberger piece: «The [
climate sensitivity]
mean is 2.0 °C... which is
lower than the IPCC estimate from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007), but this estimate increases if an extra forcing component is added, see the following text.
«The [
climate sensitivity]
mean is 2.0 °C... which is
lower than the IPCC estimate from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007), but this estimate increases if an extra forcing component is added, see the following text.
Doing nothing until the end of the decade would also likely
mean curtains for
low - lying areas and small island states, including the Maldives, whose President Mohamed Nasheed I advise on
climate change issues.
3) My biggest concern is that the Obama administration is bailing out a non-competitive auto industry that is not addressing
climate change, and considers «infrastructure» investment to
mean roads and bridges and not a functioning electrical grid that will support renewable energy and other forms of distributed energy like CHP that would greatly
lower emissions.
In the next 50 years, even the
lower limit of impending
climate change — an additional global
mean warming of 1 degree Celsius above the last decade — is far beyond the range of
climate variability experienced during the past thousand years and poses global problems in planning for and adapting to it.
The world has within its technological grasp, financial
means, and know - how the
means to mitigate
climate change while also ending extreme poverty, through the application of sustainable development solutions including the adoption of
low - carbon energy systems supported by information and communications technologies;
Reuters explains: «Subsidies on oil, gas or coal are
meant to help the poor by
lowering the price of energy but the report, issued on the sidelines of a 160 - nation U.N.
climate meeting in Ghana, said they often backfired by mainly benefiting wealthier people.»
Climate change is having, or will have, the effect of lowering the carrying capacity, at least for normal human timeframes; so, that means that whatever the overshoot is, it will be greater with greater effects of climate
Climate change is having, or will have, the effect of
lowering the carrying capacity, at least for normal human timeframes; so, that
means that whatever the overshoot is, it will be greater with greater effects of
climate climate change.
In other words, if
climate sensitivity is toward the
low end, 2 K is more dangerous than we currently give it credit for, and arguments for
low risk because of
low sensitivity are less valid because that
means that more ecological changes occur for a given temperature change than currently thought.
IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch.5 says: «The PETM was marked by a massive carbon release and corresponding global ocean acidification (Zachos et al., 2005; Ridgwell and Schmidt, 2010) and, with
low confidence, global warming of 4 °C to 7 °C relative to pre-PETM
mean climate (Sluijs et al., 2007; McInerney and Wing, 2011).
In terms of advocacy, this is tricky; people in the fossil fuel sector will doubtless claim that
lower climate sensitivity
means rapid reductions in fossil fuel use are not necessary, so they can go on with their plans for more gas and oil development without breaching the Paris Agreements, etc..
I'm not saying that this is impossible, just that until somebody does it there's no basis for concluding that higher past variability
means lower climate senstivity.
«The first nonlinearity we consider is that at higher temperatures the T4 dependence of the Stefan - Boltzmann equation
means the
climate system is able to more effectively compensate for radiation perturbations than at
lower temperatures.
Accordingly, let's look at the relative changes in SCC between
low and high
climate sensitivity to see what it would
mean if we really live in a
low - sensitivity world.
All three are among more than 20 national and sub-national governmental agencies around the world that have incorporated voluntary
climate - change solutions into their formal strategies — creating in the process a
means of developing the tools and procedures that will be needed in a
low - carbon economy.
The pledges and determination shown by world governments at the Paris
climate change talks in Paris
meant there would likely be «further policies aimed at shifting the fuel - mix towards cleaner,
lower - carbon fuels, with renewable energy, along with natural gas, the main beneficiary,» said Dale.
More generally, increased vegetation cover
lowers albedo,
meaning that more of the sun's light is absorbed which in turn warms the
climate locally (another positive feedback), as well as increasing evapotranspiration and carbon uptake.
The implications are still that a
lower estimate of
climate sensitivity
means «there is a reason to act».
Yet recent studies have found that company compliance is
low, so shareholders are continuing to push individual companies to take a hard, data - driven look at what
climate change will
mean for them.»
DK12 used ocean heat content (OHC) data for the upper 700 meters of oceans to draw three main conclusions: 1) that the rate of OHC increase has slowed in recent years (the very short timeframe of 2002 to 2008), 2) that this is evidence for periods of «
climate shifts», and 3) that the recent OHC data indicate that the net
climate feedback is negative, which would
mean that
climate sensitivity (the total amount of global warming in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels, including feedbacks) is
low.
Shell has gone farther than many of its peers in analyzing what a 2 °C or
lower scenario would
mean for its business, addressing mainstream investor expectations such as the recommendations of the Task Force on
Climate - Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).
Easier to understand is a claim by
Climate Interactive (and used by Joe Romm of
Climate Progress) that the policy proposals would
mean that global emission in 2100 would be 40 %
lower than without them.
With the
lower net ocean to atmosphere heat flux during this La Niña like condition, it
means measuring the
climate response to GH forcing based on tropospheric temperatures alone is a weaker and less accurate measurment tool.
This
means that: 1) the annular modes vary on timescales as fast as weeks; and 2) the high and
low index polarities of the annular modes do not reflect two distinct states of the
climate system, but rather the wings of a normally distributed frequency distribution.
The latest example comes in an article in today's Times, which claims a new
low climate sensitivity estimate means «Climate change could be slower than forecast&
climate sensitivity estimate
means «
Climate change could be slower than forecast&
Climate change could be slower than forecast».
On a (2011)
Climate Etc. post Pondering the Arctic Ocean, I interpreted the record in the context of a (qualitative) change point analysis, defined by changes in trend,
mean value, amplitude of the annual cycle, and interannual variability.It looks like 2013 was another change point year, characterized by
low amplitude seasonal cycle.
Co-benefit impacts (sometimes called «no regrets» strategies), in which
climate mitigation efforts are chosen to help protect health by reducing health - damaging air pollution emissions,
lowering the vulnerability of poor populations, improving the built environment, and other
means
«Winding back the
climate agenda
means that the U.S. will be left behind in the clean energy transition as other global players, such as in Europe and China, demonstrate greater commitment to deploying
low carbon and job - creating solutions to
climate change,» said Peter Kiernan, of the Economist Intelligence Unit.
If emissions stay as high as they are, that
means even a
low value of
climate sensitivity would see a significant amount of warming by the end of the century.
The Sierra Club and a large coalition of groups — including Earthjustice, Chesapeake
Climate Action Network, Patuxent Riverkeeper, Potomac Riverkeeper, Shenandoah Riverkeeper, and
Lower Susquehanna Riverkeeper — have been fighting this plan since its announcement because it
means a massive expansion of natural gas fracking.
The report noted that although carbon dioxide is an invisible «trace gas» —
meaning it comprises a small percentage of the Earth's atmosphere as a whole — it can nevertheless have significant impacts on the
climate at these seemingly
low levels.