Even with the prospect of a near - term easing of inflation and perhaps even some negative CPI inflation figures, the combination of strong real yields and principal safety makes these a good harbor for investors who want to sleep nights without accepting untenably
low nominal yields (and the high associated durations - which I suspect many investors currently overlook).
Not exact matches
(And with
nominal yields close to record
lows, the same could be said for corporate bonds.)
High -
yield stocks generated an annualized
nominal return of 12.2 %;
low -
yield, 10.4 %.
If
nominal GDP growth is going to be «
lower for longer» then so will bond
yields.
Yet
low nominal gross domestic product growth and aging populations argue for
lower bond
yields than in the past — and sustained demand for high quality bonds.
Inflation expectations, as measured by the difference between
yields on 10 - year
nominal Treasury notes and Treasury inflation protected securities (Tips), have risen to 2.25 per cent from a
low of around 2.10 a month ago.
When savings are high, the term premium is more likely to be
low, in the process keeping
nominal yields down.
In contrast to
yields on
nominal bonds,
yields on inflation - linked bonds have for the past six months remained close to their
lowest recorded levels.
The level of
yields — around 4 1/4 per cent at present — looks
low not only on historical comparisons but also relative to normal benchmarks such as the growth rate of
nominal GDP, which in the US is currently around 6 per cent (Graph 16).
Bond
yields are
low because
nominal growth is remarkably weak, not a great environment for corporate earnings.
Breakeven levels (the difference between a
yield of a
nominal bond and an inflation - linked bond) are up over 40 basis points (bps, or 0.40 %) from the summer
low and over 80 bps from the February nadir.
If bond
yields drop from 6 % to 5 %, bond buyers immediately grasp that their
nominal return will be
lower.
The
yield of a global portfolio is about as
low as its ever been from a cyclically adjusted P / E, credit spread, and
nominal interest rate standpoint, while the global economy is more likely to be in the later (than early) stages of the business cycle.
High
yield bonds are risky enough that when
nominal yields get
low enough, it is probably time to start reducing exposure.
Just whack it with open market purchases or a tender, finance it with
low yield guaranteed debt, and enjoy the reduction in
nominal debt outstanding.
As a result, while markets would appear to be quite expensive today based on
nominal earnings
yield, which is in the top quintile of all values over the past 140 years, the real earnings
yield is less extreme because yoy inflation is so
low.
Real
Yields Another consideration is if TIPS yields are high or low relative to the real return on nominal bonds of the same mat
Yields Another consideration is if TIPS
yields are high or low relative to the real return on nominal bonds of the same mat
yields are high or
low relative to the real return on
nominal bonds of the same maturity.
Thus, while TIPS
yields are at historically
low levels, TIPS continue to look like a clear choice over
nominal Treasuries in relative terms, because investors aren't paying a premium for unexpected inflation.