At 3.42 million square kilometres, it may still sound large, but this small extent of Arctic sea ice could have profound long - term consequences, and it follows a long trend of
low sea ice conditions.
The study compared weather patterns during
low sea ice conditions as seen in recent years to weather patterns during high sea ice conditions typical of the late 1970s.
Not exact matches
This new group of scientists find some weather disturbances were not from the El Nino, La Nina cycle, but apparently regulated by
conditions in the Arctic — things like
low sea ice,
low or shorter season snow cover, and even «sudden stratospheric warming».
Does it mean the first time the summer
sea ice goes beneath this threshold or does it imply a probability of encountering
low -
ice conditions over a period of time?
«Conversely, above normal
ice cover was associated with La Nina
conditions which are accompanied by the Aleutian
low moving westward of normal allowing higher pressure and colder
conditions to move over the Bering
Sea.
It is also possible for cold climates to increase chemical weathering in some ways, by
lowering sea level to expose more land to erosion (though I'd guess this can also increase oxydation of C in sediments) and by supplying more sediments via glacial erosion for chemical weathering (of course, those sediments must make it to warmer
conditions to make the process effective — downhill and downstream, or perhaps via pulsed
ice ages -LRB-?)-RRB-.
As expected from my 2002 paper, the
low A.O.
conditions of late have sequestered quite a bit of
sea ice the Arctic, which should foster a more moderate retreat of
sea ice extent this coming spring, summer and fall.
Arctic
sea ice shrank to its lowest level in 38 years last month, setting a record low for the month of May and setting up conditions for what could become the smallest Arctic ice extent in history, according to National Snow and Ice Data Center data released Tuesd
ice shrank to its
lowest level in 38 years last month, setting a record
low for the month of May and setting up
conditions for what could become the smallest Arctic
ice extent in history, according to National Snow and Ice Data Center data released Tuesd
ice extent in history, according to National Snow and
Ice Data Center data released Tuesd
Ice Data Center data released Tuesday.
Tagged annual summer minimum, arctic
sea ice, Beaufort Sea, body condition, Cherry, Chukchi, declining sea ice, Eastern Beaufort, good news, heavy sea ice, Hudson Bay, ice - free Arctic, litter size, loss of summer ice, Pilfold, polar bear, record low, Regehr, ringed seals, Rode, sea ice extent, Southern Beaufort, Stirling, summer ice minimum, summer sea ice, thick spring
sea ice, Beaufort
Sea, body condition, Cherry, Chukchi, declining sea ice, Eastern Beaufort, good news, heavy sea ice, Hudson Bay, ice - free Arctic, litter size, loss of summer ice, Pilfold, polar bear, record low, Regehr, ringed seals, Rode, sea ice extent, Southern Beaufort, Stirling, summer ice minimum, summer sea ice, thick spring
Sea, body
condition, Cherry, Chukchi, declining
sea ice, Eastern Beaufort, good news, heavy sea ice, Hudson Bay, ice - free Arctic, litter size, loss of summer ice, Pilfold, polar bear, record low, Regehr, ringed seals, Rode, sea ice extent, Southern Beaufort, Stirling, summer ice minimum, summer sea ice, thick spring
sea ice, Eastern Beaufort, good news, heavy
sea ice, Hudson Bay, ice - free Arctic, litter size, loss of summer ice, Pilfold, polar bear, record low, Regehr, ringed seals, Rode, sea ice extent, Southern Beaufort, Stirling, summer ice minimum, summer sea ice, thick spring
sea ice, Hudson Bay,
ice - free Arctic, litter size, loss of summer
ice, Pilfold, polar bear, record
low, Regehr, ringed seals, Rode,
sea ice extent, Southern Beaufort, Stirling, summer ice minimum, summer sea ice, thick spring
sea ice extent, Southern Beaufort, Stirling, summer
ice minimum, summer
sea ice, thick spring
sea ice, thick spring
ice
Yet, Polar Bears International («Save Our
Sea Ice»)-- who were surely in and around Churchill in 2010 and 2006 watching polar bears — just posted an alarming statement about local conditions, implying that slow freeze - up of Hudson Bay this year is a reflection of the fact that «sea ice is at a record low across the Arctic.&raq
Sea Ice»)-- who were surely in and around Churchill in 2010 and 2006 watching polar bears — just posted an alarming statement about local conditions, implying that slow freeze - up of Hudson Bay this year is a reflection of the fact that «sea ice is at a record low across the Arctic.&raq
Ice»)-- who were surely in and around Churchill in 2010 and 2006 watching polar bears — just posted an alarming statement about local
conditions, implying that slow freeze - up of Hudson Bay this year is a reflection of the fact that «
sea ice is at a record low across the Arctic.&raq
sea ice is at a record low across the Arctic.&raq
ice is at a record
low across the Arctic.»
At times of
low solar irradiance the amounts of
sea ice in the Nordic Sea increase, this ice is then driven south due to the atmospheric circulation (also due to weak solar conditions) creating a more northerly air flow in this ar
sea ice in the Nordic
Sea increase, this ice is then driven south due to the atmospheric circulation (also due to weak solar conditions) creating a more northerly air flow in this ar
Sea increase, this
ice is then driven south due to the atmospheric circulation (also due to weak solar
conditions) creating a more northerly air flow in this area.
To detect this
condition, the rate of change of the NSIDC NH
sea -
ice extent was taken and a 3 - sigma gaussian
low - pass filter applied.
Sea -
ice age estimates in spring, showing
conditions during the last week of April in 2009 (upper image) and 2010 (
lower image).
Further investigation of
ice thickness and free
ice drift
conditions, in addition to persistence of SLP maxima, will provide further insight as to whether convergence (divergence) of
sea ice associated with SLP highs (lows) will give rise to increased ice retreat in the Arctic and the Beaufort Sea region in particul
sea ice associated with SLP highs (
lows) will give rise to increased
ice retreat in the Arctic and the Beaufort
Sea region in particul
Sea region in particular.
This is substantially
lower than the earlier estimates, reflecting both
lower than average
sea ice extent used as initial
conditions this summer and a persistent downward trend in
sea ice extent over the past decade (and longer).
Whereas the simulations for March and June are all quite similar, the September
sea ice concentration of the central Arctic Ocean is significantly
lower under
conditions with a closed Bering Strait and half - flooded shelf
seas (Fig. 8, Supplementary Fig. 9).
The thinner seasonal
ice conditions helped reduce the amount of
ice, leading to the 2007 record
low amount of total Arctic
sea ice.
I see a whole string of summers with very negative NAO
conditions from 2015 - 2024, so I think we will see some very
low September
sea ice minima again.
The other simulations were run under approximated pre-industrial
conditions:
lower greenhouse gas concentrations, cooler
sea surface temperatures, and the largest
sea ice extent available from the satellite era (1986/1987).
Sometime before 2020 certainly, but based on the 5 year rebuilding time between 2007 and 2012, we might see a new
lower low in Arctic
sea ice around 2017, as the spiral continues down to an
ice free
condition this century.
Unusually warm
conditions and record
low daily
sea ice extent levels continued through the end of the year.
Then things took a turn for the worse, and
sea ice was at record or near - record
low conditions for most of the summer.
Now we have poor hunting
conditions in the Bering Strait touted as evidence that «walrus migration patterns have changed» with the implication that this is because ``... the past eight years have had the eight
lowest amounts of summer
sea ice on record» due to man - made global warming.
That a simple warming trend throughout the 20th century does not characterise arctic
conditions is also confirmed by records of
ice cover in the four
seas that lie north of Siberia (Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi); these show clearly that
ice variability in these
seas is dominated by a
low frequency oscillation of frequency 60 ‐ 80 years that «places a strong limitation on our ability to resolve long term trends».
Summer meteorological current
conditions and projections this summer (see Figures 9 - 11) do not favor extreme mid to late summer
sea ice loss in 2016, as occurred in 2007 and 2012, despite
low sea ice extents at the beginning of summer.
Differences between surface winds and SLP, and vortex splitting and
sea ice extent composites exhibit conditions that are unfavorable to export through Fram Strait in May, 2009; southwesterly versus southeasterly winds in the Beaufort Sea region may also limit free ice drift conditions and inhibit the acceleration evident in years exhibiting record lows in sea ice exte
sea ice extent composites exhibit
conditions that are unfavorable to export through Fram Strait in May, 2009; southwesterly versus southeasterly winds in the Beaufort
Sea region may also limit free ice drift conditions and inhibit the acceleration evident in years exhibiting record lows in sea ice exte
Sea region may also limit free
ice drift
conditions and inhibit the acceleration evident in years exhibiting record
lows in
sea ice exte
sea ice extent.
The last three years have all seen record -
low conditions; in 2016, there were seven months of record -
low sea ice.
Albedo should increase in response to very
low solar
conditions which should result in an increase in major volcanic activity, increase in global cloud coverage and
sea ice / snow coverage.
Ice loss during the second half of August was in fact the slowest observed during the last decade, resulting in the observed, unexceptional September sea ice extent being recorded despite the extremely low ice conditions present at the start of the summ
Ice loss during the second half of August was in fact the slowest observed during the last decade, resulting in the observed, unexceptional September
sea ice extent being recorded despite the extremely low ice conditions present at the start of the summ
ice extent being recorded despite the extremely
low ice conditions present at the start of the summ
ice conditions present at the start of the summer.
«When IP25 [proxy for
sea ice] is absent, lack or very
low abundance of phytoplankton biomarkers reflects permanent
sea -
ice coverage, whereas elevated abundance of phytoplankton markers reflects
ice - free
conditions.
A series of extremely
low September
sea ice conditions during the last decade, including the unprecedented declines in 2007 and 2012, suggests a recent acceleration in the long - term Arctic
sea ice loss (e.g., Stroeve et al., 2012b).
Background mixing in the deep ocean is related to internal wave energy, which in
ice - covered
seas has been observed to be
lower than in
ice - free oceans, and to change with time and bathymetric
conditions [Levine et al., 1985 and 1987; Halle and Pinkel, 2003; Pinkel, 2005].
Such weather patterns, which can feature relatively mild
conditions in the Arctic at the same time dangerously cold
conditions exist in vast parts of the
lower 48, may be tied to the rapid warming and loss of
sea ice in the Arctic due, in part, to manmade climate change.
Many
conditions are unprecedented, including the record
low extent of Arctic
sea ice.
Current
sea ice extent and meteorological
conditions suggest a record
low is unlikely, as surface temperature over the central Arctic has been near normal in the last two months and forecasts of atmospheric temperatures for the next few weeks indicate average surface temperatures.
Thus, while there has been persistence of
low summer
ice conditions the last few years, model results suggest we can not rule out short periods of increased
sea ice cover, but that this in no way contradicts the long - term
sea ice loss.
While several August Outlooks did not change from the July Outlook, forecasts using statistical techniques together with end of July
sea ice conditions tended to show slightly
lower estimates for the September minimum compared to the previous outlook (e.g. Meier et al.; Beitsch et al.; Lukovich et al.; Randles).