But amid the optimism, some investors also have an eye on potential causes for concern, including the end of the bull run for bonds and persistent
low volatility in markets.
Specifically, there is great concern that
low volatility in the markets is bound to reverse, that investors are ignoring the real concerns about North Korea, a U.S. debt ceiling that expires this fall, an unpredictable president and Washington gridlock.
After serenely bubbling higher in small daily increments for two full years amid
the lowest volatility in market history, the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average is beginning to misbehave.
The message so far has been that
the lower volatility in the markets, in part due to algorithmic and high - frequency trading, means that active traders have shied away from trading this market.
The low volatility in the market was largely to blame.
Deputy Chief Financial Officer Marty Chavez told analysts that clients were less active in trading commodities, currencies and credits amid
low volatility in some markets.
Not exact matches
LONDON, April 23 - Hamstrung by a renewed slump
in volatility and lack of clear
market direction, FX and bond speculators are making historically big bets on a
lower dollar and higher yields.
LONDON, April 20 - British emerging
markets - focused hedge fund Onslow Capital Management has closed after a long period of
low volatility hit returns and assets fell below a sustainable level, it said
in a letter to investors.
They're just as applicable
in low -
volatility markets as they are
in the higher
volatility markets with big swings.
The CBOE
Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear
in the
market, hit its
lowest level
in more than 20 years earlier this year.
In a falling
market, you want the large - cap dividendpaying stock that has
low beta (a measure of
volatility), he says.
«The surge
in market volatility has led to
lower consumer confidence and the economy is near full employment.
CNBC's Mike Santoli reports on how ETFs for
low -
volatility stocks are performing
in these choppy
markets.
European
markets continued
lower on Monday afternoon as investors focused on fresh data from the euro zone and
volatility in oil
markets.
UBS also achieved its net cost reduction target of 2.1 billion Swiss francs but highlighted that
low market volatility could affect client activity
in its wealth management business.
Quadratic Capital Management's Nancy Davis — who correctly predicted the blow - up
in the popular wager on
low volatility by hedge funds before last week's plunge — thinks the
market will remain turbulent.
Timmer: You know, the last two years until the January high, were really extraordinary times for the
market, and I fear that investors got spoiled by that, because the S&P was up I think 52 %
in two years and
in 2017 the
volatility — the standard deviation of those returns — was at an all - time
low of 3.9.
Quincy Krosby, chief
market strategist at Prudential Financial, says
low volatility is great for M&A
in U.S.
markets.
Volatility in the Treasury
market has sunk to a multidecade
low, and that could have sweeping implications for the bond
market this year.
This wasn't unexpected, since the
market was rising
in just the right mix of conditions:
Volatility as measured by the Cboe's index was at historic
lows, the GOP was set to pass the most comprehensive corporate - tax reform
in decades, and economies around the world were
in growth mode.
Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Advisory Group, and CNBC's Bob Pisani and Mike Santoli discuss whether
low -
volatility ETFs are a good protective investments
in choppy
market environments like we've seen recently.
Elevated valuations,
low volatility and secularly
low interest rates are unlikely to be allies for robust financial
market returns over the next five years,» the fund company cautioned
in its report.
Actual results, including with respect to our targets and prospects, could differ materially due to a number of factors, including the risk that we may not obtain sufficient orders to achieve our targeted revenues; price competition
in key
markets; the risk that we or our channel partners are not able to develop and expand customer bases and accurately anticipate demand from end customers, which can result
in increased inventory and reduced orders as we experience wide fluctuations
in supply and demand; the risk that our commercial Lighting Products results will continue to suffer if new issues arise regarding issues related to product quality for this business; the risk that we may experience production difficulties that preclude us from shipping sufficient quantities to meet customer orders or that result
in higher production costs and
lower margins; our ability to
lower costs; the risk that our results will suffer if we are unable to balance fluctuations
in customer demand and capacity, including bringing on additional capacity on a timely basis to meet customer demand; the risk that longer manufacturing lead times may cause customers to fulfill their orders with a competitor's products instead; the risk that the economic and political uncertainty caused by the proposed tariffs by the United States on Chinese goods, and any corresponding Chinese tariffs
in response, may negatively impact demand for our products; product mix; risks associated with the ramp - up of production of our new products, and our entry into new business channels different from those
in which we have historically operated; the risk that customers do not maintain their favorable perception of our brand and products, resulting
in lower demand for our products; the risk that our products fail to perform or fail to meet customer requirements or expectations, resulting
in significant additional costs, including costs associated with warranty returns or the potential recall of our products; ongoing uncertainty
in global economic conditions, infrastructure development or customer demand that could negatively affect product demand, collectability of receivables and other related matters as consumers and businesses may defer purchases or payments, or default on payments; risks resulting from the concentration of our business among few customers, including the risk that customers may reduce or cancel orders or fail to honor purchase commitments; the risk that we are not able to enter into acceptable contractual arrangements with the significant customers of the acquired Infineon RF Power business or otherwise not fully realize anticipated benefits of the transaction; the risk that retail customers may alter promotional pricing, increase promotion of a competitor's products over our products or reduce their inventory levels, all of which could negatively affect product demand; the risk that our investments may experience periods of significant stock price
volatility causing us to recognize fair value losses on our investment; the risk posed by managing an increasingly complex supply chain that has the ability to supply a sufficient quantity of raw materials, subsystems and finished products with the required specifications and quality; the risk we may be required to record a significant charge to earnings if our goodwill or amortizable assets become impaired; risks relating to confidential information theft or misuse, including through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion; our ability to complete development and commercialization of products under development, such as our pipeline of Wolfspeed products, improved LED chips, LED components, and LED lighting products risks related to our multi-year warranty periods for LED lighting products; risks associated with acquisitions, divestitures, joint ventures or investments generally; the rapid development of new technology and competing products that may impair demand or render our products obsolete; the potential lack of customer acceptance for our products; risks associated with ongoing litigation; and other factors discussed
in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended June 25, 2017, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC.
Although it is fair to say that the recent uptick
in volatility has
in part reduced earlier concerns about prolonged
low volatility and associated reach - for - yield behavior, it has placed added focus on the resilience of liquidity, particularly
in markets, such as the
market for corporate bonds, that may be prone to gapping between liquidity demand and supply
in stressed conditions.
Equity
markets are up so far this year, while
volatility in the U.S. bond
market is near its
lowest level since late 2014.
This sector offers something that's becoming ever harder to find
in today's
market: undervalued companies with
low volatility and stable revenues.
Low volatility today likely
in part also reflects investors seeking income by selling
volatility in options
markets.
The Cboe
Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered to be the best gauge of fear
in the
market, hit its
lowest level since Feb. 1 and traded more than 11.5 percent
lower at 14.62.
Although increased
market volatility might make traders more dependent on Bloomberg's services
in the short term, any contraction
in global trade and capital
markets would inevitably
lower demand for the company's services over time.
This, after a year of flatter growth and considerable
volatility in the commodity
markets, marked by continued discounts on Canadian crude and
low gas prices.
The
market environment
in 2018 looks more normal than last year, with
lower returns and higher
volatility.
The stock
market opened way down, continuing last Friday's selloff, though it has climbed back since the open — implying the return of
volatility — as skittish investors continue to fear the sequence I describe
in this AM's WaPo: tight labor
market, wage pressures, higher interest rates, inflation,
lower profit margins.
For example,
in periods of
low market volatility and average demand, a one ounce gold American Eagle coin might be offered at 4.5 % over spot, but periods of weak demand can bring the price down to 3.5 % over spot, or
lower.
Adding bonds to your portfolio can dampen your
volatility and
lower your losses
in down
markets.
Trading volume is very
low in BTC's
market, as the
volatility compression is dominant, but a break - out could lead to a strong momentum move soon.
For one thing, it depends
in part on the current steady state of
low market volatility.
The
volatility is still
lower for the 50/50 selection again with
lower gains
in the up years but smaller losses
in down
markets.
If it tried to do other potentially conflicting things, such as keeping unemployment artificially
low or containing
volatility in the financial
markets, its credibility could erode, the virtuous circle could break down and inflation could go back to being unpredictable.
Market volatility, which has been historically low in recent months, spiked, with Cboe Volatility Index, commonly considered a gauge of investor fear, jumping by more than 10
volatility, which has been historically
low in recent months, spiked, with Cboe
Volatility Index, commonly considered a gauge of investor fear, jumping by more than 10
Volatility Index, commonly considered a gauge of investor fear, jumping by more than 100 percent.
It appears that
volatility wasn't the only number that was suppressed
in the stock
market last year: Stock correlations also remained
low.
When a clear
market uptrend is
in place and
market volatility is smooth and steady, a pullback to the 50 - day or 200 - day moving averages typically presents a
low - risk buy entry point
in a strong stock.
Macro: The Macro strategy's strongest contributions came from long equity and Energy - sector positioning as
low volatility and sustained, upward trends
in these
markets continued driving returns throughout most of January.
With
market volatility hitting multi-decade
lows, junk bond yields also at record
lows, the median price / revenue ratio of S&P 500 constituents at a record high well - beyond 2000 levels, and the most strenuously overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes we define, I'm increasingly concerned about the potential for an abrupt «air pocket»
in the prices of risky assets that could attend even a modest upward shift
in risk premiums.
As calm
markets pushed
volatility to record
lows, some strategies increasingly accepted bets against calm
markets in order to fund equity positions.
That critique misses the mark because the objective of
low volatility strategies is not to capture all of the upside
in a bull
market, but rather to perform less...
«After 18 months of
low -
volatility markets, things became much more volatile
in the middle of January, starting with a 10 percent slide within just weeks.
Or it could be that bond
market volatility picks when interest rates are
lower, especially
in long maturity bonds.
Our view is that the equity
markets have
low volatility because we have been experiencing
low volatility in the things that drive equity prices — interest rates, economic data and corporate earnings.
Markets are a bit less frothy than they were
in January, but valuations are still elevated and
volatility unusually
low.
Today, the
markets are placid,
low -
volatility affairs that have gained fairly steadily since the end of the financial crisis
in March 2009.