Certainly, 2017 was
a low volatility regime.
Investors, myself included, continue to marvel at
the low volatility regime.
However, should inflation start to move meaningfully above 2 %,
the low volatility regime is unlikely to survive.
«The later stages of the 2009 — 2017 bull market are a valuation illusion built on share buyback alchemy... The technique optically reduces the price - to - earnings multiple because the denominator doesn't adjust for the reduced share count... Share buybacks are a major contributor to
the low volatility regime because a large price insensitive buyer is always ready to purchase the market on weakness... Share buybacks result in a lower volatility, lower liquidity, which in turn incentivizes more share buybacks, further incentivizing passive and systematic strategies that are short volatility in all their forms... Like a snake eating its own tail, the market can not rely on share buybacks indefinitely to nourish the illusion of growth.
Investors, myself included, continue to marvel at
the low volatility regime.
For anyone holding an electronically traded product (ETP) tracking the inverse of the VIX index, the end of
the low volatility regime that was 2017 obliterated their allocated positions.
And they are typically buying opportunities, provided there are no economic or financial shocks to today's
low volatility regime.
But I can say with a very high degree of confidence that we have now departed
the low volatility regime and entered a high volatility regime.
Low volatility regimes lead to excessive risk taking and crowded positioning which leads to instability and high volatility regimes and on and on.
Not exact matches
Market
volatility (vol) has been testing
lows, but
low - vol
regimes are the historical norm, not the exception, we find.
Today's realized levels of
volatility stand at historically
low levels — even for a
low - vol
regime such as the one we see persisting today.
Steady - above trend global growth is supportive of
low - vol
regimes, yet we see the potential for greater macroeconomic uncertainty — and
volatility.
We see the
low -
volatility regime sticking for longer, but see potential for episodic spikes amid rising risks.
We see the probability of a
volatility regime shift as
low — as long as the economy remains stable and systemic financial vulnerabilities are kept in check.
, San - Lin Chung, Chi - Hsiou Hung and Chung - Ying Yeh examine the predictive power of investor sentiment for different kinds of stocks during bull (
low -
volatility, expansion) and bear (high -
volatility, recession) equity market
regimes.
I highlighted the prospects of a change in market
regime from one of ultra
low volatility to a period of higher
volatility.
Many assume central bankers are aware unwinding QE could end the
low -
volatility regime and will act to protect the «new normal».
Buybacks have been essential fuel for the
low -
volatility regime, enabling steady equity appreciation and in turn, the rules - based strategies pegged to that tranquility.
It is impossible to pinpoint when the
low -
volatility regime will end, but as Howard Marks stressed in an Oaktree client letter last week: «It's better to turn cautious too soon... than too late after the downslide has begun.»
One way or another, as the
low -
volatility regime winds down, buybacks appear destined for a day of reckoning.
We find that equity pull - backs are short and recoveries quick in
low macro
volatility regimes.
In our view, credit assets have benefitted disproportionately in recent years from a
regime of
low inflation,
low volatility, and central banks reducing the free float of risk free assets to the tune of several trillion dollars.
Is the inclusion of 100 - day Historical
Volatility (ranking from high to low) the volatility of the overall market regime or the stocks you are selecting
Volatility (ranking from high to
low) the
volatility of the overall market regime or the stocks you are selecting
volatility of the overall market
regime or the stocks you are selecting, or both?
The sustainability of such a
regime does not necessarily imply markets will return to the unusually
low volatility levels seen in 2017.
We find that equity pull - backs are shorter and recoveries quicker during
low macro
volatility regimes.
Periodic outbreaks of higher
volatility can happen even within
low -
volatility market
regimes.
We've made the argument previously that
volatility tends to trade in «
regimes» of
low - vol, mid-vol, and high vol.
Today's realized levels of
volatility stand at historically
low levels — even for a
low - vol
regime such as the one we see persisting today.
As Artemis Capital's Chris Cole has said about the end of the
low -
volatility regime, February's VIX tantrum was likely «just an appetizer».