USD JPY Tumbles as Return of Risk Aversion Rocks the Markets The USD JPY reversed its four day rally as traders sought safety in
lower yielding assets following an announcement by President Obama to curb trading at financial institutions.
Not exact matches
But purchasing stable, dividend -
yielding equities will go a longer way than owning
low - paying fixed - income
assets.
Meanwhile government bond
yields, a reliable barometer of market fear, are falling to record
low levels as investors engage in a panicked hunt for risk - free
assets.
With stocks trading near all - time highs and bond
yields still relatively
low, some investors have turned to alternative
asset classes.
In an era of
low interest rates,
yield traps play into the hands of financial cheats who can cook the books by inventing revenue, altering expenses and creating
assets.
QE could be described as a tax on the private sector since it removes high
yielding safe
assets from the private sector and swaps them with
low yielding less safe
assets.
Treasury prices cut earlier losses on Monday, pushing
yields slightly
lower, after stocks fell sharply, pushing investors into haven
assets like government bonds.
With market volatility hitting multi-decade
lows, junk bond
yields also at record
lows, the median price / revenue ratio of S&P 500 constituents at a record high well - beyond 2000 levels, and the most strenuously overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes we define, I'm increasingly concerned about the potential for an abrupt «air pocket» in the prices of risky
assets that could attend even a modest upward shift in risk premiums.
Monetary easing only provokes
yield - seeking speculation when
low - interest money is viewed as an inferior
asset.
Persistently
low official inflation rates in recent years depressed bond
yields along with risk premiums on all financial
assets.
At a time when demand for income generating
assets is at an all - time high, the
yields on income generating
assets are at, or near, all - time
lows.
Biofuels don't help, but biofuels are the result of high oil prices, which are the result of poor incentives to bring oil up (both because of
low yielding U.S.
assets and political resentment over U.S. foreign policy).
This very
low market volatility can lead investors to take on more risk, and in a period of still relatively
low interest rates, to «reach for
yield» — that is, buy riskier
assets than one would otherwise, in order to achieve a desired profit or savings goal.
A long period of
low rates has encouraged investors to assume greater risk in the stretch for
yield, inflating
asset prices.
But this masks the reality that equities — and by extension other risk
assets — still look attractive taking into account that bond
yields are likely to stay historically
low.
For the most part, investors cite the market's four - year climb off its 2009
lows and the Dow's record closing to the Federal Reserve's aggressive and unprecedented monetary stimulus measures, which have helped push equities higher by driving down
yields in safe - haven
assets.
But long - term government bond
yields fell to record
lows for many euro area countries after a speech by ECB President Draghi on 21 November, which stressed that the ECB will do what is required to raise inflation and inflation expectation by adjusting the size, pace and composition of
asset purchases, if the currently announced policies prove to be insufficient.
Yields on high - yield corporate bonds narrowed (centre panel) and record low government bond yields pushed up valuations of risky assets (right - hand p
Yields on high -
yield corporate bonds narrowed (centre panel) and record
low government bond
yields pushed up valuations of risky assets (right - hand p
yields pushed up valuations of risky
assets (right - hand panel).
Indeed, Finke said that he's most proud of a series of articles that he wrote last year along with American College professor Wade Pfau and David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Morningstar, that looked at the impact of
low asset yields on the sustainability of retirement portfolios.
The Fed's accommodative monetary policy after the recession helped goose stock prices, in part by
lowering yields on safer
assets like Treasury bonds.
In addition, sovereign wealth funds — which generally diversify their portfolios to include a small portion of alternate
assets such as gold, private equity and real estate — are likely to raise their allocations following the
low yield in government bonds over the last couple of years.
The SNB's «profit was lifted by a trio of positive forces:
Low bond
yields preserved the value of its foreign bonds; higher equity prices raised the value of SNB holdings... and the weaker Swiss currency made those foreign
assets worth more in franc terms.»
Higher oil prices would reinforce current market trends based on reflation: rising long - term bond
yields and a shift out of perceived safer
assets — bond proxies and
low - volatility stocks — and into cyclical
assets such as EM.
With interest rates on
low - risk investments falling to
low levels in many countries, investors have sought to maintain
yields by moving into higher - risk
assets such as corporate debt and emerging market debt.
This is evident in a number of developments, including: increased demand for higher - risk
assets; the increase in «carry trades» — a form of gearing where funds are borrowed short - term at
low interest rates and invested in higher -
yielding assets, often in other countries; growth in alternative investment vehicles such as hedge funds; and growth in alternative investment strategies such as selling embedded options (see Box A).
It was also intended to frustrate holders of conservative,
low -
yielding assets, pushing them to seek higher returns in riskier investments and thereby fund job - generating business activity — and it seems to be working.
Today's
low - to - negative interest rate world has sent investors searching far flung corners of the market for
yield, driving flows into a range of once obscure, high -
yielding asset classes.
They then compare this to the
yield you could get from the
lowest risk
asset — a government bond.
An
asset class that once boasted a
yield of 10 % now pays about 4 % — a huge move for a safe,
low volatility investment.
Most value stocks have
low price - to - earnings (P / E) ratios, high dividend
yields,
low price - to - cash - flow ratios, and stocks with a market value (generally, the stock price) that is
lower than the book value (how much the company's net
assets are worth).
A potential surprise: A rally in risk
assets prompted by investors shifting out of cash and
low -
yielding assets in search of higher returns.
Therefore, one can see why AAL is intent on shrinking its
asset base to improve its balance sheet —
low yielding properties act as a drag on company performance.
If you look at Page 3 of C's Y - 9 performance report, you'll see that C's
yield on loans is 2 % higher than the large bank peer group, yet the bank has a spread on earning
assets half a point
lower than other large banks.
«The multi-year massive expansion of the Fed's balance sheet has had a recognized powerful effect on
asset markets —
lowering yields and flattening the
yield curve.
So while
low and negative interest rates across the globe has inspired flows into stocks, emerging market bonds and corporate credit in search of higher
yields, keep in mind the high correlations of these
assets to oil prices and the advantages of holding actual diversifiers in your portfolio to smooth the ride.
You're essentially defeasing a portion of your liability with a
lower amount of
assets than the value of that liability, and of course, the potential for higher
yield comes with greater risk.
Although the
yield may jump around a bit (12.5 % at present) and is contingent on the timing of
asset sales, we expect investors to receive a hefty high single - digit to
low double - digit return for quite some time.
There is good rationale as to why the bond markets are in the position they are today; compressed spreads are the result of
low rates coupled with strong demand out pacing supply for
yield assets.
While global equity markets as of the end of December 2014 still offered great value in our opinion (especially compared to generally expensive,
low -
yielding fixed income
assets), that value is becoming increasingly selective.
The past several years have featured little more than a gigantic
asset swap, the short description being that massive volumes of government debt have been swapped by central banks for massive volumes of idle bank reserves, while massive volumes of
low -
yielding, covenant - lite debt have been issued into the hands of
yield - seeking investors, in order to retire massive volumes of corporate equities at elevated valuations through buybacks.
If the
yields on these
assets with near - guaranteed returns remain
low, then buying in precious metals should remain fairly steady, if not strong.
Structurally
lower yields underpin our positive view on equities and other risk
assets, and we favor equities overall to credit.
Less than one - third of pension - fund
assets typically are parked in safer,
lower -
yielding government bonds and other fixed - income investments.
The reason comes back to
yield: Although current
yields are
low by historical standards, they look more compelling in the context of an ever shrinking pool of high
yielding assets.
In the U.S. those further benefits crucially flowed through the wealth effect channel: substitution of
lower risk
assets such as bank deposits and Treasuries for high
yield bonds and equities led to price increases in those risky
assets.
With 10 - year Treasuries
yielding less than 2 % today (from Bloomberg data), investors unwilling to accept such
low income may need to direct their investments across riskier
assets in the search for
yield.
A darling
asset class of this bull market has been U.S. high
yield debt, as many searching for income in a
low - rate world have turned to these higher -
yielding bonds.
Investors and fund managers search for
yield, extend maturities, reach for
lower credit quality and shift
assets from short term floating rate money market funds to bonds, bond funds and similar investments.
And here is the second try: Gross margins as a ratio of
Assets over 13 %, free cash flow
yield over 5 %, Long - term debt as a ratio of free cash flow greater than five, less than 20 % above the 52 - week
low.
«Much like the laws of physics change from the world of Newtonian large objects to the world of quantum Einsteinian dynamics, so too might
low interest rates at the zero - bound reorient previously held models that justified the stimulative effects of
lower and
lower yields on
asset prices and the real economy.»