The graph shows that high multiples almost always coincide with
low economic volatility, and bubble valuations coincide with very low volatility.
The Achilles» heel in this relationship is that
low economic volatility is unlikely to remain low indefinitely.
Not exact matches
Low volatility shows that investors believe that long - term global
economic trends of modest growth and tepid inflation will also define shorter - term cycles.
Actual results, including with respect to our targets and prospects, could differ materially due to a number of factors, including the risk that we may not obtain sufficient orders to achieve our targeted revenues; price competition in key markets; the risk that we or our channel partners are not able to develop and expand customer bases and accurately anticipate demand from end customers, which can result in increased inventory and reduced orders as we experience wide fluctuations in supply and demand; the risk that our commercial Lighting Products results will continue to suffer if new issues arise regarding issues related to product quality for this business; the risk that we may experience production difficulties that preclude us from shipping sufficient quantities to meet customer orders or that result in higher production costs and
lower margins; our ability to
lower costs; the risk that our results will suffer if we are unable to balance fluctuations in customer demand and capacity, including bringing on additional capacity on a timely basis to meet customer demand; the risk that longer manufacturing lead times may cause customers to fulfill their orders with a competitor's products instead; the risk that the
economic and political uncertainty caused by the proposed tariffs by the United States on Chinese goods, and any corresponding Chinese tariffs in response, may negatively impact demand for our products; product mix; risks associated with the ramp - up of production of our new products, and our entry into new business channels different from those in which we have historically operated; the risk that customers do not maintain their favorable perception of our brand and products, resulting in
lower demand for our products; the risk that our products fail to perform or fail to meet customer requirements or expectations, resulting in significant additional costs, including costs associated with warranty returns or the potential recall of our products; ongoing uncertainty in global
economic conditions, infrastructure development or customer demand that could negatively affect product demand, collectability of receivables and other related matters as consumers and businesses may defer purchases or payments, or default on payments; risks resulting from the concentration of our business among few customers, including the risk that customers may reduce or cancel orders or fail to honor purchase commitments; the risk that we are not able to enter into acceptable contractual arrangements with the significant customers of the acquired Infineon RF Power business or otherwise not fully realize anticipated benefits of the transaction; the risk that retail customers may alter promotional pricing, increase promotion of a competitor's products over our products or reduce their inventory levels, all of which could negatively affect product demand; the risk that our investments may experience periods of significant stock price
volatility causing us to recognize fair value losses on our investment; the risk posed by managing an increasingly complex supply chain that has the ability to supply a sufficient quantity of raw materials, subsystems and finished products with the required specifications and quality; the risk we may be required to record a significant charge to earnings if our goodwill or amortizable assets become impaired; risks relating to confidential information theft or misuse, including through cyber-attacks or cyber intrusion; our ability to complete development and commercialization of products under development, such as our pipeline of Wolfspeed products, improved LED chips, LED components, and LED lighting products risks related to our multi-year warranty periods for LED lighting products; risks associated with acquisitions, divestitures, joint ventures or investments generally; the rapid development of new technology and competing products that may impair demand or render our products obsolete; the potential lack of customer acceptance for our products; risks associated with ongoing litigation; and other factors discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including our report on Form 10 - K for the fiscal year ended June 25, 2017, and subsequent reports filed with the SEC.
Now as
economic indicators like
low unemployment and increased consumer spending tick toward the positive, many economists are pointing to a limited rate hike as a way to move the economy towards normalcy after the
volatility of the past decade.
But this environment of
low market and
economic volatility is one where corporate defaults are expected to be limited.
Our view is that the equity markets have
low volatility because we have been experiencing
low volatility in the things that drive equity prices — interest rates,
economic data and corporate earnings.
We see
low volatility as a normal feature of the benign
economic and financial backdrop — and not as a warning sign in itself.
We continue to have a very positive fundamental intermediate - term view, but believe (1) the improved
economic data, (2) fear of higher interest rates, (3) a less dovish Fed, (4) historically
low volatility, and extreme overbought condition creates an environment ripe for a correction.
We believe that central - bank liquidity and better - than - expected global
economic data contributed to the
lower levels of
volatility.
And they are typically buying opportunities, provided there are no
economic or financial shocks to today's
low volatility regime.
The increased appetite for ETFs was spurred by the constructive backdrop for US stocks: a synchronized and broad global
economic expansion, and historically
low levels of US stock market
volatility.
Strong earnings growth and
low volatility helped markets set record highs amid a synchronized global
economic expansion.
Last year, demand for ETFs was driven primarily by a constructive backdrop for US stocks: a synchronized and broad global
economic expansion, and historically
low levels of US stock market
volatility.
One consequence: A benign
economic environment tends to go hand in hand with
low market
volatility.
With the loonie's recent slide, oil prices at their
lowest in 12 years and China's stock market
volatility sending reverberations to our own, the news of Canada's
economic decline is hard to ignore.
Periods of
low volatility often coincide with higher levels of valuation, and that sort of
low economic variability can help to generate stock market bubbles.
Economic stability has generally been associated with high multiples while greater amounts of volatility in economic data have coincided with low mu
Economic stability has generally been associated with high multiples while greater amounts of
volatility in
economic data have coincided with low mu
economic data have coincided with
low multiples.
When
economic growth slows, a quality index will outperform — but if this is coupled with
low inflation then minimum
volatility will outperform.
However some market participants prefer the
lower volatility of gold and the safety it may provide in this environment of a weak financial sector, uncertain
economic growth and political unrest.
Given the current
low interest - rate environment, adding a high - yield allocation to your core bond portfolio or investing in a multisector bond fund may help increase your investment income — just remember that many of these types of funds still come with the potential for significant
volatility, particularly during times of heightened
economic and / or stock market
volatility.
The share prices of smaller companies can vary significantly from day - to - day due to
lower trading volume, earnings
volatility, unanticipated
economic reports, and modest research coverage.
However, history would suggest, with the strong fundamental environment and no
economic recession on the horizon,
low volatility could continue in the short term.
Included in such funds are the kinds of companies I discussed in an article about stocks Warren Buffett might buy; stocks with wide moats, strong financial positions, and product lines that sell just as well in recession as they do in periods of strong
economic growth.A
low volatility ETF is an easy way to get exposure to stock - like returns without the crazy up and downs.
Quality, value, momentum or
low -
volatility stocks by themselves have moved in and out of favor as the
economic cycle has swayed back and forth.
Investors whose portfolio value jumped around on slow Chinese
economic growth, the Brexit vote and the Trump win in 2016 may be surprised to learn that historically stock
volatility is
low.
When
economic volatility is
low, the natural CAPE ratio can be much higher.
Implementation issues encountered in designing
low -
volatility investment strategies include unwelcome concentrations in certain regions, countries, and
economic sectors; the combination of
low liquidity and high turnover, raising implicit trading costs; and high tracking error relative to broad capitalization - weighted market benchmarks.
If concerns over housing and
economic growth persist, it may be worthwhile to consider high yield utility stocks for
lower volatility and high dividend payouts to ride out further
volatility.
The increased appetite for ETFs was spurred by the constructive backdrop for US stocks: a synchronized and broad global
economic expansion, and historically
low levels of US stock market
volatility.
A slowdown in
economic growth around the world, particularly in China, as well as a slowdown in productivity,
lower population growth, aging baby boomers, higher taxes and
lower government spending will lead to an increase in stock - market
volatility.
The strong quarterly performance of high beta stocks makes sense when you consider that high beta can outpace
low volatility during periods of rising 10 - year Treasury yields and stronger
economic growth, when investor demand for defensive stocks may ease.
For investors, Adina believes its attraction lies in its proven ability to maximise performance through efficiency and operate with
lower volatility compared to traditional hotels — smoothing out income fluctuation through seasonal and
economic cycles.
Continued
low interest rates are driving the key global housing markets, in spite of relatively sluggish
economic growth and heightened financial market
volatility.
Leasing volume has been down recently because of stock market
volatility and concerns over the
economic slowdown in China and
low oil prices, notes Julia Georgules, vice president of office research for JLL.
And global
economic volatility is contributing to a strengthening U.S. dollar, which will impact demand from foreign buyers, and help keep mortgage interest rates
low.»
Moderate
economic growth with
low interest rates, punctuated with bouts of pessimism and
volatility are likely to continue in 2016