• a range of scenarios for volcanic eruptions (the models assume that the volcanic activity will be comparable to the 20th century, which had much
lower volcanic activity than the 19th century)
Again, with arrows:
lower volcanic activity — > lower aerosol concentrations — > more sunlight gets in — > more heat
So, if
lower volcanic activity during a period allows the concentrations aerosols to fall, more energy gets into the earth system, thus generating more heat.
Regardless of artistic style, paintings created soon after volcanic eruptions had redder skies than those painted during periods of
low volcanic activity, the researchers report online today in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
Temperatures were driven upwards by CO2 and also solar changes and
low volcanic activity.
The warming period from about 1920 — 1950 has been attributed to a combination of greenhouse gases (which were increasing through the period to some extent), solar changes, and unusually
low volcanic activity.
Low volcanic activity (as eruptions can have a cooling effect by blocking out the sun).»
First, while the early 20th century warming was likely predominantly naturally - caused (i.e.
low volcanic activity and increasing solar activity), there was also a significant human contribution as greenhouse gas emissions began to ramp up.
But «
low volcanic activity» won't cut it either.
Also, unusually
low volcanic activity kept that negative forcing to a minimum.
You aren't thinking about the warming period early last century, because we know it was a relatively brief period, and so lacked huge significance, and was caused by a combination of CO2 emissions, high solar activity and
low volcanic activity and the later two factors haven't been apparent since the 1970's modern warming period.
Not exact matches
The white line represents the present - day Mediterranean coastline, blue regions show the submarine area in case of a 2 km Mediterranean sea level
lowering as it was proposed during the Messinian salinity crisis and red circles show the location of
volcanic provinces whose
activity was enhanced during the Messinian (the size of the circle is proportional the
activity augmentation).
The site where Loki is heavily influenced by
volcanic activity, but actually quite
low in temperature,» says Steffen Jørgensen from the University of Bergen in Norway, who was involved in taking the samples where Loki was found.
Volcanoes which are persistently active and emit a strong plume, while at the same time have
low enough
volcanic activity, are the perfect candidates to study.
On Sunday, Iceland
lowered its warning code for possible
volcanic disruption to the aviation industry to orange from red, the highest level on the country's five - point alert system, after concluding that seismic
activity had not led to a
volcanic eruption under the glacier.
Certain
low - frequency
activity may signal that a volcano is likely to spout an ash cloud, a column of jagged
volcanic sand that can reach as high as 30,000 feet.
As discussed elsewhere on this site, modeling studies indicate that the modest cooling of hemispheric or global mean temperatures during the 15th - 19th centuries (relative to the warmer temperatures of the 11th - 14th centuries) appears to have been associated with a combination of
lowered solar irradiance and a particularly intense period of explosive
volcanic activity.
Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) used multiple linear regression to quantify and remove the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and solar and
volcanic activity from the surface and
lower troposphere temperature data.
In contrast, super-Earths with a similar concentration but larger absolute amount of radioactive heat sources (i.e., uranium and thorium) than Earth would produce more internal heat, more vigorous mantle convection, and faster plate tectonic action involving thinner plates, which may promote planetary habitability with
lower mountain ranges but higher
volcanic activity and an atmosphere with a greater relative composition of
volcanic and lighter gases (Sasselov and Valencia, Scientific American, August 2010; Valencia and O'Connell, 2009; and Valencia et al, 2007).
On September 29th, despite nothing but increased
volcanic activity, the director had the audacity to call for the volcano alert level to be
lowered, due to concerns about tourism to Bali over the Christmas holidays.
The recent
volcanic activity of Mount Agung in Karangasem impacted Bali tourism as there were many flights cancellation, resulting
low hotel occupancy.
Volcanic activity in Mount Agung is slowing and the volcano's status has been
lowered from level four «danger» to level three «alert» by Indonesia's volcanology centre.
Volcanic activity on Mt. Agung had been slowing and the volcano's status was
lowered from the highest level, danger, to the third highest level, alert, by the volcanology center.
Currently, Arenal Volcano only releases gases in crater C and has fumarole
activity in crater D. Seismic monitoring of the volcano indicates that
volcanic activity remains
low and external manifestations have been reduced to a minimum.
At
low tide take a walk along the beach between Wye River and Separation Creek to see some incredible rock formations created from ancient
volcanic activity and find a private sandy beach to have all to yourself.
It has long been suspected that the
low solar
activity during the Maunder Minimum was one of the causes of the Little Ice Age, although other factors like a small drop in greenhouse gas concentrations around 1600 and strong
volcanic eruptions during that time likely played a role as well.
Multiple causal factors have been suggested for the LIA: insolation change due to orbital cycles;
low solar
activity; high
volcanic activity; and reduced atmospheric CO2 due to forest regrowth following human population collapses (the «Black Death» in Europe and Asia, and Columbian contact in the Americas.)
Infact, if one goes back to 1600 and graphs all major
volcanic eruptions against high /
low solar
activity one will find that 88 % of all major
volcanic eruptions have happend during periods of
low solar
activity.
The second one, which I buy into more, because the data is pretty solid, is during periods of
low solar
activity,
volcanic activity (major
volcanic activity) increases.
It would require
lowest solar
activity and probably some large
volcanic eruptions.
I belive it is quite possible that a combination of
low solar
activity and high
volcanic activity could push the world over the edge.
Lets look at the short term CO2 growth rate change due to temperature change and notice that the fudged record does not track growth rate change as well as the charts do here: http://www.biomind.de/realCO2/ When I try to understand why the CO2 levels may have been kept
low by the LONG effects of
volcanic activity as well as Krakatoa in 1883 I see a VE6 in 1902 and another in 1912 but then none that large until 1991 and I do not remember it being anything like the descriptions of Krakatoa.
Geothermal areas are categorised as
low - and high - temperature fields, where high - temperature fields have temperatures over 180 °C and are found around tectonic plate boundaries where
volcanic activity is high.
A string of very large
volcanic eruptions or long period of extremely
low solar
activity would carry some significance but are not likely occurrances within the frame of, say, 50 years.
Because weather patterns vary, causing temperatures to be higher or
lower than average from time to time due to factors like ocean processes, cloud variability,
volcanic activity, and other natural cycles, scientists take a longer - term view in order to consider all of the year - to - year changes.
Additional
volcanic activity and some solar minimums (Maunder, Dalton) continued to keep ocean heat content
low, and we did not see the ocean heat content recover to MWP levels until nearly 1900.
The MWP saw the
lowest level of
volcanic activity in the past 2000 years — from about 700 AD to about 1225 AD.
Figure 1: Global surface and
lower atmosphere temperature data from 5 data sets (with a 12 - month running average) before and after applying the statistical methodology of Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) to remove the influences of ENSO and solar and
volcanic activity.
I expect one or two major
volcanic eruptions within the next 3 years and yes associated with the very
low solar
activity.
So if major
volcanic activity should pick up during this very
low solar period of time like it did during the Dalton Solar Minimum it will not be recognized as a solar / climate link although would be n my opinion.
Volcanic activity is generally
lower in periods of prolonged maxima of solar
activity and higher in periods of prolonged solar minima.
Albedo should increase in response to very
low solar conditions which should result in an increase in major
volcanic activity, increase in global cloud coverage and sea ice / snow coverage.
Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) used multiple linear regression to remove the effects of solar and
volcanic activity from the surface and
lower troposphere temperature data.
16 Natural Climate Changes
Volcanic Activity Volcanic dust can remain suspended in the atmosphere for several years, reflecting incoming solar radiation and
lower global temperatures.
Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) used multiple linear regression to filter out the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and solar and
volcanic activity (Figure 2), and found that the underlying global surface and
lower atmosphere warming trends have remained very steady in recent years (Figure 3).
It is thought that solar forcings played a role, and
low levels of
volcanic activity may also have contributed.
Foster and Rahmstorf (2011) used multiple linear regression to quantify and remove the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and solar and
volcanic activity from the surface and
lower troposphere temperature data.
Tectonic and
volcanic activity was
low in the Canterbury Basin over the past several million years20; the sediments are devoid of diagenesis, and evidence for gravity flows is rare22.
From solar min to solar max the influence on temp has been estimated at around 0.1 deg C (some scientists came to 0.2), and the LIA was at least partly influenced by a sustained period of
low solar
activity, combined with high
volcanic activity (see eg the wikipedia link I provided in the blog post).