Not exact matches
LONDON, April 23 - Hamstrung by a renewed slump in volatility and lack
of clear market direction, FX and
bond speculators are making historically big bets on a
lower dollar and higher
yields.
The
bond purchases, the third round
of quantitative easing embarked upon by the Fed in the wake
of the 2008 financial collapse and subsequent recession, have kept interest rates and
bond yields low.
Much
of the shift
lower in our
yield forecasts derives from the view that the ECB [European Central Bank] will continue to buy
bonds in its QE [Quantitative Easing] program.
While investors will have to find stocks with higher
yields, pay more for them and take on more risk in
bonds, the biggest change in a permanently
low - rate world is that people will need to set aside more
of every paycheque if they want to keep the same goal for retirement income.
Low sovereign
bond yields have long helped the government finance its debt, thus, higher
yields would undermine the sustainability
of its fiscal position, analysts said.
Last week, for example, TD Bank sold US$ 3 - billion worth
of bonds covered by residential mortgages
yielding 1.571 %, or quite a bit
lower than 2.99 %.
Those figures come in an atmosphere
of low interest rates, which depress
bond yields, and a relatively flat S&P 500 over the 12 months ending June.
I noted a week ago that Bernanke had essentially eased monetary policy by spurring a loosening
of financial conditions via higher stock prices,
lower bond yields, tighter credit spreads, and a weakening
of the U.S. dollar.
While Fink is right to point out that
low interest rates are putting a large burden on those
of us trying to save retirement, he does not address the fact that central banks aren't primarily responsible for the fact that
bonds of all types are
yielding less today than we're used to.
«But due to the
low coupons prevailing, even a gradual rise in
yields will result in negative returns on a wide range
of government
bonds over the coming quarters.»
The company's lone outstanding junk
bond, worth $ 1.8 billion and maturing in 2025, briefly dropped two points to as
low as 85 cents on the dollar for a
yield of around 8 percent on Monday, according to MarketAxess data.
This makes sense;
lower growth should result in
bond yields falling, anticipating
lower Bank
of Canada rates in the future and less need for a risk premium around inflation.
Germany's benchmark 10 - year
bond yield was up almost 2 bps at 0.58 percent in early trade, above a one - week
low of 0.56 percent hit on Friday.
Meanwhile government
bond yields, a reliable barometer
of market fear, are falling to record
low levels as investors engage in a panicked hunt for risk - free assets.
Investors were watching the report closely after fears
of surging inflation helped send the stock market
lower and
bond yields higher.
Also, Ablin added a large portion
of the recent rally involved a rotation from
bonds into stocks as
low interest rates forced investors to seek
yield in the stock market.
But he warned that could be changing: «There's a very
low hurdle for that surprise because
bond market
yields are so
low in the front end
of the curve.
Historically speaking, when the economy has gotten stronger, the price
of Treasury
bonds go
lower and the
yield goes higher.
Although it is fair to say that the recent uptick in volatility has in part reduced earlier concerns about prolonged
low volatility and associated reach - for -
yield behavior, it has placed added focus on the resilience
of liquidity, particularly in markets, such as the market for corporate
bonds, that may be prone to gapping between liquidity demand and supply in stressed conditions.
The
yield on the Merrill Lynch junk
bond composite is up 205bps from last year's
low of 5.16 % on June 24 to 7.21 % currently.
While it's better to invest than keep money under a mattress, buying risk free securities, such as guaranteed income certificates or
low -
yielding government
bonds, could actually be riskier than purchasing higher returning products, says Ted Rechtshaffen, president and CEO
of Toronto's TriDelta Financial Partners.
The Fed had
lowered interest rates down to zero in terms
of short - term rates and that pushed
bond yields down.
Second, the average time to maturity on U.S. debt is six years, meaning that most
of the
low -
yielding bonds now on the books will be exchanged for more expensive debt over the next decade.
When rates rise, the price
of older,
lower -
yielding bonds fall.
U.S. government
bonds saw buying on Tuesday, pulling
yields lower, after Secretary
of State Rex Tillerson was ousted from the White House.
On a serious note, I was rotating into utilities instead
of bonds because
of low bond yields.
In order to understand the impact
of longer duration and
low yields, let's use a real - life example
of one
of the largest
bond funds today and look back at its history.
US election + BREXIT = populist repudiation
of era
of inequality, globalization, wage deflation; cements BofAML themes
of peak Liquidity, Inequality, Globalization + Main St over Wall St. Electoral trends could mark secular
low in long - term
bond yields (Chart 1).
debt obligations
of the U.S. government that are issued at various intervals and with various maturities; revenue from these
bonds is used to raise capital and / or refund outstanding debt; since Treasury securities are backed by the full faith and credit
of the U.S. government, they are generally considered to be free from credit risk and thus typically carry
lower yields than other securities; the interest paid by Treasuries is exempt from state and local tax, but is subject to federal taxes and may be subject to the federal Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT); U.S. Treasury securities include Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury
bonds, zero - coupon
bonds, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), and Treasury Auctions
the percentage
of return an investor receives based on the amount invested or on the current market value
of holdings; it is expressed as an annual percentage rate;
yield stated is the
yield to worst — the
yield if the worst possible
bond repayment takes place, reflecting the
lower of the
yield to maturity or the
yield to call based on the previous close
The elder Buffett has shunned
bonds in recent years, saying that near record -
low yields aren't enough to compensate for the risk
of inflation.
Its underlying index selects and weights its
bonds by market value, and this method
yields a portfolio that aligns well with our benchmark in terms
of credit tranches and maturity buckets, with the only notable difference being a slightly
lower YTM.
Bonds have never been a part
of my portfolio given the historical
lower yield when compared with equities.
But a continuation
of favorable economic growth and
low default levels — which we expect — and measured Federal Reserve tightening — which we also expect — should support more narrow high -
yield bond spreads for some time to come.
During times
of recession the economy is stimulated with
low interest rates and once they get
low enough, the
yield on
bonds and other fixed investments becomes so unattractive that money starts to flow into equities.
The 35 year bull market in
bonds most likely ended on July 8, 2016 when the 10 year maturity U.S. Treasury Note
yield hit an all - time
low of 1.36 %.
Global
bonds are vulnerable due to
low current
yields, depressed term premia1 and the desire
of developed - market central banks to unwind unconventional policies.
When savings account rates and
yields on government
bonds are
low, gold suddenly becomes much more attractive to hold as a store
of value.
To receive the full benefit
of a
bond ladder, one needs not only to stay the course for a number
of years (so that
lower yield and higher
yield purchases benefit from cost averaging), but also with a relatively stable amount
of capital.
The institutions are not only using the money to meet their own short - term financing needs, they are also borrowing additional money to purchase the
bonds of troubled countries and earn the spread between the
yields on those
bonds and the much
lower rate the ECB is charging them for money.
Private holders
of Greek
bonds are being squeezed too: for every 2
bonds they hold, they'll be offered a new one that is longer - dated and
lower -
yielding.
I pour the morning cup
of mud, schlep out to the stoop to get my paper, and open my WSJ to learn that the
yield curve is awfully flat (i.e., the difference between the interest rates
of bonds of different maturities is
low).
With market volatility hitting multi-decade
lows, junk
bond yields also at record
lows, the median price / revenue ratio
of S&P 500 constituents at a record high well - beyond 2000 levels, and the most strenuously overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes we define, I'm increasingly concerned about the potential for an abrupt «air pocket» in the prices
of risky assets that could attend even a modest upward shift in risk premiums.
Although the
bond market is also volatile,
lower - quality debt securities, including leveraged loans, generally offer higher
yields compared with investment - grade securities, but also involve greater risk
of default or price changes.
Although they are not as egregiously expensive as 10 - year Swiss government
bonds — currently trading at a
yield of negative 0.25 % — Canadian
bonds are offering a relatively paltry real return, even after adjusting for
low inflation.
Advisors should give fixed indexed annuities (FIAs) a serious look because FIAs offer a compelling story in an era
of low bond yields, according to Roger G. Ibbotson, one
of the most recognizable names in finance.
With Group
of Seven (G7) sovereign
bond yields at historically
low levels, some income - seeking investors have turned to higher - volatility securities like dividend - paying stocks in an attempt to capture additional income.
At that time, the 10 - year Treasury
bond had a duration
of just 6 years (due to the very high coupon payments and
yield - to - maturity available), while the S&P 500 had an extraordinarily
low duration
of just 16 years.
With rates at historic
lows, many investors have used high - dividend stocks, rather than
low -
yielding bonds, in pursuit
of income.
«We are hoping «mom and pop» can do a little bit better than the
bond market at a time
of historically
low yields.»