Not exact matches
Temperature changes relative to the corresponding average for 1901 - 1950 (°C) from decade to decade from 1906 to 2005 over the Earth's continents, as well as the entire globe,
global land area and the
global ocean (
lower graphs).
Climate scientists would say in response that changes in
ocean circulation can't sustain a net change in
global temperature over such a long period (ENSO for example might raise or
lower global temperature on a timescale of one or two years, but over decades there would be roughly zero net change).
This value was the second highest
global ocean temperature for October in the 1880 — 2016 record, 0.25 °F
lower than the record warmth of October 2015.
This value was the second highest
global ocean temperature for November in the 1880 — 2016 record, 0.34 °F
lower than the record warmth of November 2015.
[1] CO2 absorbs IR, is the main GHG, human emissions are increasing its concentration in the atmosphere, raising
temperatures globally; the second GHG, water vapor, exists in equilibrium with water / ice, would precipitate out if not for the CO2, so acts as a feedback; since the
oceans cover so much of the planet, water is a large positive feedback; melting snow and ice as the atmosphere warms decreases albedo, another positive feedback, biased toward the poles, which gives larger polar warming than the
global average; decreasing the
temperature gradient from the equator to the poles is reducing the driving forces for the jetstream; the jetstream's meanders are increasing in amplitude and slowing, just like the
lower Missippi River where its driving gradient decreases; the larger slower meanders increase the amplitude and duration of blocking highs, increasing drought and extreme
temperatures — and 30,000 + Europeans and 5,000 plus Russians die, and the US corn crop, Russian wheat crop, and Aussie wildland fire protection fails — or extreme rainfall floods the US, France, Pakistan, Thailand (driving up prices for disk drives — hows that for unexpected adverse impacts from AGW?)
First,
global mean surface
temperature depends on the quantity of heat stored at the surface of the earth (earth,
lower atmosphere, and the mixed layer of the
oceans).
Global average air
temperature near the surface is dominated by the
ocean (because it covers two thirds of the planet), particularly at
low latitudes.
Does this imply that a 1.5 °C increase in
global temperatures brings the same problems independent of the heat stored
lower in the
oceans or how much the ice caps have melted?
(1) The overall
global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the
ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the
lower troposphere.
That is, depending on the study, if memory serves me well, the lag times between solar variation and response in
global temperature is said to range between 5 - 7 years on the
low end to a couple of decades on the high end due to the thermal inertia of the
oceans.
This is particularly significant because many climate - change alarmists conjecture that the reason
global temperatures of the 21st century are
lower than their faulty climate models originally predicted is that the Earth's
oceans are absorbing all the excess heat.
to be consistent, either we should have 100 points measuring the
temperature on a specific hour of the day on mountains and in the
ocean, and no average world
temperature, or we should do the same with CO2, measure high for the day,
low for the day, average, and make a
global average from many regions, and then define an anomaly on the same interval as the
temperature anomaly in order to be consistent.
Comparison of
global lower troposphere
temperature anomaly over the
oceans (blue line) to a model based on the first derivative of atmospheric CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa (red line).
If there has been only a fairly small change in
ocean heat flux over the last century and the ratio of
global increase in surface
temperature to increase in forcing is
low (as the evidence certainly suggests), then it follows that climate sensitivity is
low — perhaps of the order of 1.5 C.
And it seems if somehow the
ocean's effect is reduced, one will colder conditions and possibly even higher day time high
temperatures, but there less room to get warmer, as compared to get cooler, and so
global temperature lowers.
(Someone somewhere I saw recently, maybe in this thread estimated that if all the excess heat in the
ocean were distributed to the
lower atmosphere instead the
global mean surface
temperature would be 36 C warmer.
«In our mor recent
global model simulations the
ocean heat - uptake is slower than previously estimated, the
ocean uptake of carbon is weaker, feedbacks from the land system as
temperature rises are stronger, cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases over the century are higher, and offsetting cooling from aerosol emissions is
lower.
Figure 15 - A has shown the
global pacing by the El Niños (and their tele - connections) of the
temperature changes of the
lower troposphere as function of both time and latitude; this pacing may be due to the coming to the surface, at high latitudes, of warm water from the Pacific warm pool, as they move to higher latitudes on the western rim of the
oceans after an El Niño.
In the study, the researchers looked at
ocean clouds, which at
low altitudes reflect sunlight and lead to cooler
global temperatures.
Ocean surface
temperatures increase 0,44 deg C, total
global increase 0,55 deg C, land air increase 0,9 deg C,
low troposphere (RSS and UAH) 0,44 deg C. I think you would get much of the same impression of the differences with a different timespan.
As the Earth's surface cools further, cold conditions spread to
lower latitudes but polar surface water and the deep
ocean can not become much colder, and thus the benthic foraminifera record a
temperature change smaller than the
global average surface
temperature change [43].
Climate scientists would say in response that changes in
ocean circulation can't sustain a net change in
global temperature over such a long period (ENSO for example might raise or
lower global temperature on a timescale of one or two years, but over decades there would be roughly zero net change).
Global land -
ocean lower tropospheric
temperature anomalies by month, January 1979 through November 2016.
Unless
global temperatures are stabilized, higher seas from melting ice sheets and mountain glaciers, combined with the heat - driven expansion of
ocean water itself, will eventually lead to the displacement of millions of people as
low - lying coastal areas and island nations are inundated.
It could increase
global average daytime
temperatures - especially if you included the area of the plywood
oceans and have somewhat
lower global average nite time
temperatures.
Although
global ocean temperatures are rising, a layer of fresher water immediately below the sea ice is thought to act as a buffer between the ice and the warmer Atlantic waters flowing into the Arctic Ocean basin at a lower l
ocean temperatures are rising, a layer of fresher water immediately below the sea ice is thought to act as a buffer between the ice and the warmer Atlantic waters flowing into the Arctic
Ocean basin at a lower l
Ocean basin at a
lower level.
Incidently, this will also increase the cost of
global warming — as the surface layer will have a reduced capacity for absorbing oxygen due to its increased
temperature, and less of this oxygen which is absorbed into the upper layers will reach
lower ocean layers due to reduced mixing.
Here, we present an explanation for time - invariant land — sea warming ratio that applies if three conditions on radiative forcing are met: first, spatial variations in the climate forcing must be sufficiently small that the
lower free troposphere warms evenly over land and
ocean; second, the
temperature response must not be large enough to change the
global circulation to zeroth order; third, the
temperature response must not be large enough to modify the boundary layer amplification mechanisms that contribute to making φ exceed unity.
Whilst bearing in mind that ~ 70 % of
global insolation strikes
ocean surface and
ocean «thermal capacity» (Cp) is greater than land Cp,
ocean Cp can be seen to provide energy to land Cp where land surface
temperatures are
low (as can be seen from diurnal atmospheric observations between land and
ocean surfaces).
A new report from the World Meteorological Organization warns that the current climate is bringing Earth into «truly uncharted territory,» highlighting the exceptionally
low sea ice and rises in
ocean heat,
global temperatures, and sea levels experienced by different parts of the world.