In short, the stronger euro has led to
lowered inflation forecasts, but the revisions were minor enough that the ECB considered then «broadly unchanged.»
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its key rate at 1.75 %, as most analysts were expecting, and
lowered its inflation forecast.
Not exact matches
Furthermore, many economists
forecast inflation will remain
low, so debt will be harder to pay off, creating a bleak picture for housing affordability down the road.
Higher prices paid to farmers, combined with
lower imports, may increase grocery and restaurant costs for baked goods and cereals as much as 4 percent next year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Tuesday in its first
forecast of food - price
inflation for 2018.
The rise in Treasury yields leaves them at the highest since mid-2014 though the move had been paused in Europe as
lower - than -
forecast early German
inflation numbers had nudged its borrowing costs
lower.
Consequently, Zentner and her team recently
lowered their core personal consumption expenditure (PCE)
inflation forecast to 1.4 % for 2017 and 1.7 % for 2018.
In 1996, as demand pressures were easing,
inflation was
forecast to move
lower, even though
inflation at the time was still 3.1 per cent.
And on Friday, the RBA is increasingly expected to lift its
inflation guidance, while
lowerings its economic growth
forecast.
The idea that real interest rates — that is, adjusted for
inflation — will be
lower than they have been historically is reflected in the pronouncements of policymakers such as Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, the medium - term
forecasts of official agencies such as the Congressional Budget Office and the International Monetary Fund and the pricing of government bonds whose payments are tied to
inflation.
Australia's central bank signaled today it may resume cutting interest rates as soon as next month if weaker - than -
forecast growth slows
inflation, sending the local currency and bond yields
lower.
The Trump administration pushes back on such grim
forecasts, saying it thinks
inflation will remain
low - around the Fed's 2 percent - for years to come, even with all the extra stimulus from the tax cuts and higher government spending.
Headline
inflation is
lower than
forecast, largely because of the recent fall in oil prices.
Low inflation and uncertainties about the global economy also forced the ECB to revise its
forecast for 2015 eurozone growth from 1.5 % to 1.4 %.
The ECB
forecast for eurozone growth was
lowered to 0.9 % for 2014, compared with a previous
forecast back in June of 1 %, but its
inflation forecast for 2016 is still sitting at 1.4 %.
The Committee also
lowered its
forecast for
inflation.
At the Fed's September meeting, policymakers stuck with their
forecasts for one more interest - rate rise this year and three in 2018, indicating their willingness — at least, for the time being — to look past persistent
low inflation.
Compared with the Fed's September
forecast, «real GDP growth is a little stronger, the unemployment rate is a bit
lower, and
inflation is essentially unchanged,» according to an FOMC statement.
ECB signals a
lower sense of urgency European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said this week that deflation risks in the eurozone have «largely disappeared,» as ECB
inflation forecasts were raised to 1.7 % from 1.3 % for 2017 and 1.6 % from 1.5 % in 2018.
Results from the Bank's latest quarterly survey of financial market economists show that the median
inflation forecast is 2.1 per cent over the year to June 2004, before picking up to 2.4 per cent over the year to June 2005;
forecasts for both periods are
lower than they were in November 2003 by 0.1 percentage points (Table 16).
Policymakers also
forecast inflation to creep only slowly toward the Fed's 2 percent target, even as unemployment dips
lower than previously expected.
Inflation forecasts will be revised down, if anything automatically, as the result of
lower oil prices -LRB--37 % between the mid-November and mid-February cut - off dates) and a stronger trade - weighted currency (+5.1 % for the EUR EER - 38, although the index has eased by 3.5 % from its peak).
The Reserve Bank is clinging to sunny GDP
forecasts, but stubbornly
low inflation and
low wage growth mean even these look weak.
And these
forecasts demonstrate that a credible plan to cut our budget deficit goes hand in hand with a steady and sustained economic recovery, with
low inflation and falling unemployment.
Also, Fitch
forecasts that, «a high
inflation could have a fiscal impact if it keeps domestic funding costs elevated (yields can be as high as 20 % on short - term instruments), although we think the Bank of Ghana may have scope to ease monetary policy in 2017, as the impact of electricity tariff adjustments drops out of CPI calculations,
lowering headline
inflation.»
Confidence about Britain's economic recovery has been dented, with the Bank of England
lowering its growth
forecast and raising expectations of
inflation.
Mr. Woodley also expressed his disappointment that with the
forecasts for economic growth and
low inflation there was nothing in the Budget to indicate a relaxation on the artificially
low public sector pay limits.
The
lower growth
forecasts and higher
inflation presented in the Budget mean an extra # 12bn spent on social security over the next five years.
Savings will be higher if
inflation is higher than
forecast, but
lower if
inflation comes in below
forecast.
Rowena Mason, deputy political editor: The chancellor blames the
lower growth
forecasts for next year on higher predicted
inflation and economic uncertainty, mostly attributable to the vote to leave the EU.
The reasons underlying incredibly
low bond yields are complex and multi-faceted, but one is clear: the U.S. government bond market is
forecasting very
low, and perhaps negative,
inflation.
The central bank is
lowering its
forecast for
inflation, even though the economy is showing signs of improvement.
Stock investors must be able to share that belief and that
forecast, because a change in longer - term
inflation expectations - even from a
low base - would increase stock market risks importantly.
Moreover, the RBA explained that «
inflation has been revised a little
lower over the
forecast period to allow for the upcoming reweighting of the CPI in the December quarter.»
inflation has been revised a little
lower over the
forecast period to allow for the upcoming reweighting of the CPI in the December quarter
The Russian economy's in excellent shape:
Inflation's at a post-Soviet era
low of 3.7 %, unemployment's at 6.6 %, GDP is
forecast to grow 3.5 %, and the rouble's estimated to be 20 - 30 % under - valued on a PPP basis.
As a result, our
forecasted return has been somewhat inflated in nominal terms, whereas an investor's actual purchasing power was only reduced by the
lower actual
inflation rate.
In five of the six countries where overall wage pressures are
lower,
inflation is
forecast to be higher in 2017 than in 2016, which will limit real terms wage growth.
Mexican firms are expected to benefit from more competitive wages (
lower wage pressure) in 2017, as
inflation is
forecast to erode real wage growth.
«This, in part, is why the Federal Reserve monetary policy committee on March 20th
lowered the upper end of its
inflation forecast for 2013.
Thankfully,
inflation remains tame, partly enabling the Federal Reserve to keep rates
low for longer, contrary to the
forecasts of most economists.