Sentences with phrase «lowest prediction errors»
What is the smartest way (having the lowest prediction errors) to estimate market beta across stocks for the purpose of portfolio construction?
https://www.cxoadvisory.com/ Not exact matches
2) The rise of UKIP at the 2013 local elections dramatically alters the predicted UKIP vote share, lowers both the Conservative and Labour vote shares but also increases the margin of error around the predictions.
[10] Following the result (in which the national turnout was a mere 15.1 %, even lower than the Society's prediction), the Society branded the Government's approach to elections as a «comedy of errors», views that were reiterated by Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper.
This flexibility suggests finding a lower bound on the mean square error for linear prediction of from factors based on test scores.
Topics will include predictability, ensemble prediction, nonlinear prediction, nonlinear time series analysis, low - dimensional chaos, error growth in the models, nonlinear modeling, fractals and multifractals, bifurcation, and other aspects of nonlinear science.
Could models, which consistently err by several degrees in the 20th century, be trusted for their future predictions of decadal trends that are much lower than this error?
If just the OLR seasonal cycle magnitude field is used, the RMSE prediction error redues to 0.32 C, or a bit lower if only 30S - 30N latitidue zone values are used.
If the PLS method were able to minimize cross-validation based prediction error when forming each PLS component, rather than maximizing cross-covariance, then it probably would achieve a superior result (lower Spread ratio) when using all predictors simultaneously than just any one of them, but such a method would be extremely computationally demanding.
If prediction error is (wrongly) measured using a single fit for the entire set of CMIP5 models (rather than using cross-validation), then when all nine predictors are used simultaneously the prediction error does decline more rapidly with the number of PLS components used — and is lower except when three PLS components are used — than when just the OLR season cycle predictor is used.