In their December 2016 book - length paper entitled «Factor Investing and Asset Allocation: A Business Cycle Perspective», Vasant Naik, Mukundan Devarajan, Andrew Nowobilski, Sebastien Page and Niels Pedersen examine the process of
translating macroeconomic forecasts into alpha - generating portfolios via mean - variance optimization.
Then finally — as I say, I'm probably leaving something out — there was the decision, which wound up a presidential decision because the people under him were disagreeing, to use the
CBO macroeconomic forecast, even after we had done all this work to do our own economic forecast, for one reason: it was more pessimistic than ours, and would therefore make the budget deficit reduction job harder rather than easier.
Portfolio positioning primarily reflects our views on individual companies, rather than reflecting a defined top -
down macroeconomic forecast.
The fund's biggest trade was based on simple logic, no
fancy macroeconomic forecast, no complex discounted cash flow calculation, just simple logic.
The basis for each CELT forecast is an econometric model that forecasts future gross load and energy needs in the region, which is developed using historical energy usage in the region and
macroeconomic forecasts as the key inputs.
Since I am a believer in building stock portfolios one company at a time, I tend to sympathize with legendary investors such as Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch and others that steadfastly encourage us to
ignore macroeconomic forecasts, which they believe as I do, are virtually impossible to accurately predict anyway.
Based on the mission's
macroeconomic forecast, and barring upside surprises to growth and inflation, this would put lift - off into the first half of 2016.
The start of a nine - part series on my worst investment mistakes, beginning with a boiler room scam, undue pessimism from
macroeconomic forecasts, and Caldor (spit, spit).
Not only would I have had to get
the macroeconomic forecast right I would have had to translate this into an investment idea.
[10] While many companies appear to believe that climate targets will not be met, we are unaware of any company (save Statoil) that endeavors to incorporate the physical and economic impacts of largely unabated climate change on
the macroeconomic forecasts that drive their modeling, though that flows, ipso facto, from the suggestion that the world is likely to use far more fossil fuels than could safely be combusted whilst still achieving those targets.