One of the most common excuses
made by forecasters is, «I wasn't wrong, I was just off with the timing.»
Not exact matches
By monitoring, understanding, and predicting these climate patterns,
forecasters can often
make a confident outlook of the upcoming hurricane activity for the season as a whole.
Fortunately, there is a tool called the Dvorak Technique which allows
forecasters to
make a reasonable determination of the TC intensity
by simply analyzing a single infrared or visible satellite image, which is almost always available Velden et al., 2006).
The (probably ordered from high up, this is an oil producing country) attempts
by weather
forecasters to
make this misery look amusing are simply absurd.
Perhaps the real division needs to be to create a subject which is the application of climate science — to create clear (melted ice) between climate science which is based on the scientific methodology and the null hypothesis and «climate prediction» where the «best» predictions are
made based on the balance of evidence but there is no pretence that these predictions have or even can be tested (except
by comparison to what happens... which I have to point out isn't climate «science's» /
forecasters strong card!)
And my notes, and a video
made at the time
by a amateur weather
forecaster (JMA monitoring http://ds.data.jma.go.jp of the 10hPa over the Northern Hemisphere) was showing significant stratospheric warming (NOT a SSW) starting around 29th January 2016 — a shift of about 30 °C over a few days.