Then, taking these poorly performing GCMs to
make predictions of specific problems, like flooding, drought, species destruction, etc. is irresponsible.
Do climatologists
make predictions of what will happen over the course of next year?
By WUWT regular «Just The Facts» I am often amused by claims that we understand Earth's climate system, are able to accurately measure its behavior, eliminate all potential variables except CO2 as the primary driver of Earth's temperature and
make predictions of Earth's temperature decades into the future, all with a high degree of confidence.
The essential test of any physical theory is to
make predictions of observations not used in developing the theory.
The two foreign climate models used in the National Assessment
make predictions of U.S. climate change based upon human alterations of the atmosphere.
They don't even pretend to predict the weather in the coming season — «but
they make predictions of 50 or 100 years from now and ask you to believe the Earth will get warmer.»
Long term climate predictions are certainly possible because the trends shown in this plot appear to be continuing quite well and allowed me to
make predictions of 2011 and 2012 being cooler than 2010.
As Frank suggests between the lines, in science the purpose of a model is to
make predictions of real world data.
«Indeed, it is not science to
make predictions of how to change the future by use of selected scenarios when «no systematic analysis has published on the relationship between mitigation and baseline scenarios»: this is pseudo-science of precisely the same type as astrology.»
Note to reporters: a scientist's willingness to
make predictions of the future is an indication of the current level of understanding of the science; for example Hansen et al predicted that Pinatubo's eruption in 1991 would produce a significant aerosol cooling effect, and they were right; but would anyone be willing to predict that La Nina (assuming conditions set in) will result in a record hurricane season this fall?
The IPCC doesn't really
make predictions of how atmospheric CO2 will evolve over time.
The IPCC doesn't
make predictions of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations.
Due to our small development team and various factors affecting the timeline for delivering these ports, we are unable to
make any predictions of release dates at this stage.
I can even
make predictions of behavior if your dog is a mix of several breeds.
They can
make predictions of how many shipments will go out under their Prime program, and they can make sure that it's priced accordingly.
After eight years of writing about past visions of the future, I've learned to never
make predictions of my own.
The methods used to
make predictions of future change will have to withstand extreme levels of scrutiny, whether that is from colleagues, policymakers or the general public.
The next step is to use estimates of future sea ice loss to
make predictions of how further melting could influence summer rainfall in Europe in the years to come.
The radar warning system, known as Frontiers, uses a radar network to scan the skies for rainfall and to
make predictions of rain up to six hours ahead.
Both are used to
make predictions of events.
They've seen them you know
make predictions of caution and then being proven right over and over when they were you know for example big and limited.
Many of these assets are considered to be «safe - havens» for traditional market investors, a fact that can at times
make a prediction of their direction of movement a tad simpler to derive.
Elements at lower levels will be more particular and complex,
making prediction of the structure of subsequent events almost impossible.
It amazes me that anyone who has ever read Matthew Chapter 24, could ever try to
make a prediction of this kind.
He's
made the prediction of his downfall look silly for years now.
For all orders placed between today and midnight Friday, Feb 1st customers get a chance to win DOUBLE Diaper Dollar reward points just by
making a prediction of whether Phil will see his shadow or not.
In the book, you are careful about not
making predictions of the future, but I wondered if you would be willing to make a few here.
To get some idea of what climate change will likely mean for the reefs, the World Heritage Centre asked coral experts at NOAA and elsewhere to produce what they claim is a first of its kind study «that scientifically quantifies the scale of the issue,
makes a prediction of where the future lies, and indicates effects up to the level of individual sites,» says Fanny Douvere, marine program coordinator at the center.
«The randomness of the material
makes prediction of the potential map very difficult,» Filoche explained in an email.
He thinks previous models that did not take midair collision into account have been underestimating the strength of sandstorms,
making their prediction of a storm's effects on the landscape inaccurate.
But they remain wary of
making predictions of genetic mastery that characterized the field previously.
Unlike the IPCC scenarios, Hansen is actually trying to
make a prediction of what is likely to happen.
The extra data spanning many thousands of years that this study uncovers will go a long way to matching model projections with past observations, helping scientists identify the most accurate models for
making predictions of future climate change.
The focus of the essay always
makes a prediction of the structure and it will dictate the reader's regarding the information that they desire to know at most and it will make the claim that one is really making.There is also the guidelines for making the construction of the classic essay types which has no kind of the set formula.
The capital asset pricing model
made some predictions of return versus beta.
All we can do is statistically analyze the data we have to
make a prediction of the expected annualized return in the future and the standard deviation around that return (aka the risk).
In many modern coastal systems, anthropogenic changes are superimposed on natural variation and lack of knowledge of such variation
makes the prediction of future changes in water column oxygen challenging (e.g., Grantham et al., 2004).
Unlike the IPCC scenarios, Hansen is actually trying to
make a prediction of what is likely to happen.
With the current uncertainty, one can fit the past with different sets of forcings and sensitivities,
making any prediction of the future rather questionable.
The IPCC
made predictions of drastic, immediate warming because that was the only way to sell the CAGW policy package to the stupid voters.
john edmondson says: January 10, 2011 at 11:38 am Is it possible to
make a prediction of what will happen in the next 5 to 10 years?
Bob Tisdale says: January 10, 2011 at 1:57 pm john edmondson says: «Is it possible to
make a prediction of what will happen in the next 5 to 10 years?»
Are all of the alarmist warmistas in a world - at - risk tizzy over projections of catastrophe by computer models, or are they engaged in
making predictions of impending doom, based on models and all manner of other misinterpreted evidence and made up nonsense?
That is why
making a prediction of what is going to happen 100 years from now, or something which is so vague that it is not obvious it has occurred like «climate Change» are not acceptable in Science as they can not be verified.
2) Every years data is 60 % or more below where it needs to be to
make the prediction of 1m to 1.9 m of sea level rise.
Isn't the philosophical principle that one posits something is so,
makes a prediction of what will happen if it is so, and rejects it if that doesn't happen?
Concerning our capabilities of making predictions both Taleb and Mandelbrot tell much more about the impossibility of
making predictions of many types than about, what can be predicted in spite of the limitations.
It is characteristic of Climate «Science» that
it makes no predictions of anything within the lifetimes of those now aged over 30.
I can not keep up with all of it, but the legitimate papers I know of
making a prediction of cooling are failing — especially using GisTemp or NOAA.
So why would anyone
make a prediction of what effects humanity will have on the environment some two centuries from now, based on what we're doing today?