Four new factors may
make tactical voting less likely among some particular groups of voters, and its results more unpredictable among others, this time.
Not exact matches
The group has around 2,000 supporters on Facebook and says it is planning to begin door - knocking in seats where it thinks
tactical voting could
make a difference.
By contrast Polly Toynbee in the Guardian on Thursday
made a well argued case for classic anti-Tory
tactical voting by Green and Labour supporters.
So far from ending
tactical voting, AV just
makes it more complicated.
Some forces previously on Labour's left have joined this campaign, calling for «
tactical voting», i.e. not
making the priority to maximise the Labour
vote.
That is why the left should not
make concessions to the Lib - Lab strategy implied in the call for «
tactical voting».
In a close three - way race, for example, a
tactical Labour supporter may be more confident that their candidate can beat the Liberal Democrat than the Conservative candidate, and therefore
vote for the Liberal Democrat to ensure he or she
makes it into the final round.
The next election will see a big turnout by Labour and Conservative supporters and where Liberal Democrat MP's do survive it will be solely due to
tactical voting, UKIP could even
make a breakthrough in a couple of seats but I think Labour will still win, so it will be more strongly toward a 2 party system but with the strongest 4th party performance in UK history.
After weeks of delay and
tactical disagreements inside the cabinet, Brown staked his authority on committing his party not just to a referendum on the alternative
vote, but also to
making the law introducing the referendum a legislative priority in the remaining six weeks of parliament before the election is called.
This is something that was first used in the big PoliticsHome polls of marginal seats back before the last election — it
makes hardly any difference when you ask people in most seats, but
makes the world of difference when you ask people living in seats where the Lib Dems are in contention, presumably picking up
tactical voting considerations.
On the one hand, coalition government has massively boosted the potential for
tactical voting: it's
made many Conservatives comfortable backing Lib Dems and vice versa.
Others are the complete nonsense that AV somehow
makes every
vote count or ends «
tactical voting».
The staggering mistake came just hours after Theresa May was forced to deny her side was engaging in «
tactical voting» of its own to prevent Ms Leadsom
making the final two when MPs
vote today.
However a lot has been
made of the fact that while both polls had an effort to take account of people's personal and
tactical voting behaviour in their own constituency, they did so in different ways — Ashcroft asks a two stage question, asking people their national preference and then how they will
vote thinking about the candidates and parties in their own constituency; ICM asked people the
voting intention question including the names of the candidates standing in Sheffield Hallam.
And the no
votes last year appear to have been
tactical, rather than any definitive opposition to a tender — so hopefully we'll
make it across the line this year.
Case in point: Whitehouse arguably
made a
tactical mistake this week by offering an amendment that simply forced a
vote on whether climate change is «real and not a hoax.»