All of which illustrates both the futility of
making economic predictions and the futility of the philosophy behind carbon taxes, credits and trading.
As I'm not an economist, I have never gone around
making economic predictions, based on my own political preferences, though lots of people on the right, left and centre do this.
Not exact matches
However, not everyone agrees that
prediction can be
made since we can't account for unanticipated
economic shakeups.
The optimistic
predictions that national and local
economic and real estate experts
made last year about Jacksonville are falling into line with reality.
Freddie Mac's
economic team
made just such a
prediction earlier this month, forecasting that 30 - year mortgage rates would climb to 4.7 % by the end of 2016.
Whereas challenges to biblical faith, world war, the decline of conventional morality,
economic depression, and growing expectation of another great war undermined liberal optimism, that scenario
made the dispensationalist interpretation of scripture, with its
predictions of a downward spiral preceding the second coming of Christ, increasingly plausible.
This
prediction is
made much easier by the real informational advantage that the incumbents enjoy about current and future (
economic) policy performance.
Gordon Brown has today been forced to downgrade his
economic growth
predictions as he
made his pre-Budget statement to the House of Commons.
But Darling's confidence is supported by a
prediction from the National Institute for
Economic and Social Research earlier this week, which said it expected we would
make a tentative return to growth in the three months leading to November.
And as we pointed out when Darling
made his growth forecasts back in April at the budget, predicting the
economic future is a tricky business - though we can compare his
predictions with others.
«We are able to
make highly accurate
predictions about the relative
economic rank of the surveyed households,» concludes Sebastian Schutte, a fellow at the Zukunftskolleg of the University of Konstanz.
Yet despite this, it is possible to use that torrent of information to
make predictions about social and
economic trends that affect us all.
Freddie Mac's
economic team
made just such a
prediction earlier this month, forecasting that 30 - year mortgage rates would climb to 4.7 % by the end of 2016.
Whether or not actual results and developments will conform to ProShare Advisors LLC's expectations and
predictions, however, is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including general
economic, market and business conditions, changes in laws or regulations or other actions
made by governmental authorities or regulatory bodies, and other world
economic and political developments.
The Federal Reserve plays a role in setting interest rates but so do various
economic forces,
making interest rate
prediction extremely difficult.
Important piece, because people watch PIMCO on the tube, and think that they
make money off of their
economic predictions, which are often wrong.
As the increasing levels of anthropogenic CO2 used for climate
prediction are essentially predicated by the increase in
economic activity world - wide and the effects thereof, has the IPCC's SRES model been adjusted in the light of the criticisms
made by Castles and Henderson in 2002/3 and subsequently presented at the IPCC TGCIA meeting in Amsterdam, Jan 2003?
By far the most frequent arguments
made in opposition to climate change policies are
economic predictions of various kinds such as claims that proposed climate change legislation will destroy jobs, reduce GDP, damage US businesses such as the coal and petroleum industries, or increase the cost of fuel.
He then, ironically,
makes his own
predictions about the future of energy use and
economic growth that he obviously can't back up.
In fact, while I don't like
making predictions, I do see reasons to be concerned that even educating poor people in this country (girls included) will become less and less of a shared goal — especially if our
economic prosperity flounders.
They told the Commission that they could not
make political decisions based on
predictions and
economic modeling (both generally used in climate science) and that the report should not be used to inform further modifications to the two Directives.
For example, an
economic study identifies issues and
makes predictions.
Precise
predictions of hurricane tracks and intensity; heavy rain; severe storms; fire weather; air quality and chemistry, and climate change address societal challenges that include disaster mitigation,
economic decision
making, health concerns, travel and workplace safety, long range planning, and day to day decisions (an umbrella or a heavy coat, for example).
When an
economic prediction is
made, people, especially the influential, react and modify their behavior, almost always invalidating the
prediction.
A rational public and private sector response to the threat of storm damage in a changing climate must therefore acknowledge scientific uncertainties that are likely to persist beyond the time at which decisions will need to be
made, focus more on the risks and benefits of planning for the worst case scenarios, and recognize that the combination of societal trends and the most confident aspects of climate change
predictions makes future
economic impacts substantially more likely than does either one alone.
Admittedly neither of these sciences are «hard» sciences and it is difficult to use ecological or
economic models to
make realistic
predictions.
Specifically, key parameters of the Human System, such as fertility, health, migration,
economic inequality, unemployment, GDP per capita, resource use per capita, and emissions per capita, must depend on the dynamic variables of the Human — Earth coupled system.26 Not including these feedbacks would be like trying to
make El Niño
predictions using dynamic atmospheric models but with sea surface temperatures as an external input based on future projections independently produced (e.g., by the UN) without feedbacks.
So what is happening with the
Economic Forecast: How long will it last Bruce's data shows No underlying economic recovery before 2010 «Make that 2013» — Marty Lipton «US consumers are in the early stages of a multi-year retrenchment» — Stephen Roach Wall Street Journal prediction as to the shape of the recovery / future: • U: 10 % • V: 15 % • Big D (Depression): 20 % •
Economic Forecast: How long will it last Bruce's data shows No underlying
economic recovery before 2010 «Make that 2013» — Marty Lipton «US consumers are in the early stages of a multi-year retrenchment» — Stephen Roach Wall Street Journal prediction as to the shape of the recovery / future: • U: 10 % • V: 15 % • Big D (Depression): 20 % •
economic recovery before 2010 «
Make that 2013» — Marty Lipton «US consumers are in the early stages of a multi-year retrenchment» — Stephen Roach Wall Street Journal
prediction as to the shape of the recovery / future: • U: 10 % • V: 15 % • Big D (Depression): 20 % • L: 55 %
If you are considering a significant move like opening a brokerage, it is important that you thoroughly research and analyze the
economic history of your area and follow the measures economists use to
make market
predictions.
Freddie Mac's
economic team
made just such a
prediction earlier this month, forecasting that 30 - year mortgage rates would climb to 4.7 % by the end of 2016.
I
make market
predictions based upon not only present day value, but also upon what history has taught us and what present
economic policy will bring us.