Bowen and colleagues report that carbonate or limestone nodules in Wyoming sediment cores show the global
warming episode 55.5 million to 55.3 million years ago involved the average annual release of a minimum of 0.9 petagrams (1.98 trillion pounds) of carbon to the atmosphere, and probably much more over shorter periods.
Both events were accompanied by
warming episodes the U-M-led team found by analyzing the chemical composition of fossil shells using a recently developed technique called the carbonate clumped isotope paleothermometer.
«That's the sort of thing you can understand from studying past
warm episodes,» Ford says.
As yet, it is not clear whether
the warm episodes in the Arctic match those experienced at lower latitudes.
The authors write that their observation that the modern collapse of the LIS - B is a unique event supports the hypothesis that the current warming trend in the northwestern Weddell Sea is longer and bigger than past
warm episodes.
Because of the stratospheric
warming episodes following major volcanic eruptions, the trends are far from being linear.
He discussed
a warming episode about 3 million years ago, in the middle Pliocene.
«Ocean temperatures rose substantially during
that warming episode — as much as 7 to 9 degrees Celsius (about 12 to 16 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas of the North Atlantic.
Those dark brown areas in 5 (b) are 3 standard deviations (3 sigma) or larger (refer figure 3)- very rare extremely
warm episodes.
Temperature extremes over these years is basically in line with what is expected under global warming - an increase in extremely
warm episodes and a decline in extremely cold ones.
Decreased sea ice area during December preceded «94, «97, «02 and «06
warm episodes.
«Ocean temperatures rose substantially during
that warming episode — as much as 7 to 9 degrees Celsius (about 12 to 16 degrees Fahrenheit) in some areas of the North Atlantic.
ENSO
warm episodes have dominated the last twenty years.
Global climate is a good example — not today's global
warming episode, but long - term climate changes on the scale of many millions of years.
The authors clearly identify a long - term warming from the Last Glacial Maximum, a mid-Holocene
warm episode, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age, and the rapid warming of the twentieth century.
Important factors in the current anthropogenic
warming episode is that the warming in ecological terms is substantial faster then other known episodes and temperatures could be higher then they have been in millions of years.
I would like to read a book about how the rate and degree of warming expected to take place over the next couple centuries compares with global
warming episodes in Earth's past, and how today's plants and animals might not survive climate change and heat waves more severe than experienced during the climates in which their species evolved.
But the time period for your graph includes the 1940 to 1970 period of slight cooling between
warming episodes before and after it.
# 92 Spencer el al 2007 paper doesn't really support the precise mechanism proposed by Lindzen for Iris effect, but more simply observes a strong TOA negative correction associated with warming events at 20 ° S - 20 ° N (that is: in the 2000 - 2005 period of observation, the most significative
warming episodes of the surface + low troposphere — 40 days or more — leads to a negative SW+LW cloud forcing at the top of the atmosphere).
... but more simply observes a strong TOA negative correction associated with warming events at 20 ° S - 20 ° N (that is: in the 2000 - 2005 period of observation, the most significative
warming episodes of the surface + low troposphere — 40 days or more — leads to a negative SW+LW cloud forcing at the top of the atmosphere).
With a global warming of 5º or 6ºC, it is the strongest
warming episode to affect the planet in the time since the end - Cretaceous 66 million years ago (when the dinosaurs went extinct).
There have been very good studies associating past increases in CO2 (most likely from large increases in vulcanism) with past episodes of extreme global warming (like those extreme
warming episodes that are now believed to have initiated the creation of the oil and gas deposits we extract and burn today)..
What evidence from past
warming episodes establises that this is unique to the current warming.
Therefore one would expect to see the rate of warming between the late 197s and the late 1990s to be greater than the rate of warming that occurred during the earlier two
warming episodes.
The fact that the cooling spans are gradual while
warming episodes are short - term and abrupt is an issue that has been comfortably dealt with yet, regardless of the pet theory applied.
In my post above, I omitted to point out the IPCC can not explain either of the two earlier
warming episodes, ie., the 1860/80 and / or the 1920/40
warming episodes.
Given that it can not explain
those warming episodes and given that it accepts that CO2 did not cause
those warming episodes, it makes its logical failure with respect to the late 1970s / late 1990s warming even more pronounced.
The material point being that there is no statistical difference to the rate of warming for any of the three
warming episodes.
This rate (0.28 degC per century) is very different to the rates referred to by Phil Jones for the warming periods detailed in my above comment, so the slow down is very apparent when the last 20 years is compared to the rate of the 1860 to 1880
warming episode which was slightly greater than the 1920 to 1940
warming episode, and also slightly greater than the late 20th century
warming episode
But there is no acceleration in the rate of warming between that observed in the late 1970s to late 1990s, and that observed in the two earlier
warming episodes of 1860/80 and 1920/40.
I omitted to point out the IPCC can not explain either of the two earlier
warming episodes, ie., the 1860/80 and / or the 1920/40
warming episodes.
Release of hydrates below retreating ice sheets could therefore act as a hitherto neglected positive feedback during
warming episodes.
Kent Moore, a professor of atmospheric physics at the University of Toronto, who published a study in 2016 linking the loss of sea ice to these warm events in the Arctic, said a number of factors may have contributed to the latest
warming episode.
So even though past
warm episodes may have been initiated by orbital changes that caused warming and thus caused CO2 to rise, which then led to more warming, we know that the current warm episode is being driven by increasing CO2 due to the burning of fossil fuels and the clearing of forests.
However, in this current
warming episode, the increase in CO2 is largely due to human emissions from the burning of oil, coal, and gas (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report).
In the Northern Hemisphere, they take the form of rapid
warming episodes, typically in a matter of decades, each followed by gradual cooling over a longer period.
In the current
warming episode, it is clear that CO2 and other human - induced heat - trapping gases are driving the warming.
In the distant past,
warming episodes appear to have been initiated by cyclical changes in Earth's orbit around the Sun that caused more... Continue reading →
In the distant past,
warming episodes appear to have been initiated by cyclical changes in Earth's orbit around the Sun that caused more summer sunlight to fall in the northern hemisphere.
At the scale, the general course of global temperatures has been generally downward and the length of
warm episodes appears to be shortening.
·
Warm episodes of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon... have been more frequent, persistent and intense since the mid 1970s, compared with the previous 100 years.
If somebody was looking for precedents of
warming episodes (or lack of them), surely he would look inot the Younger Dryas?
The recent dramatic warming of the last 3 decades of the 20th century coinciding with massive releases of chlorofluorocarbons to the atmosphere tends to support this model, especially as
that warming episode appears to have ended some 17 years ago.
1) Is Stefan's postulated heat sequestration process unique to this most recent episode of global warming; i.e., is it unprecedented in the history of global
warming episodes?
We have had parallel cooling and
warming episodes.
Glacial variability comes mainly in the form of
warming episodes (Dansgaard - Oeschger events; figure 45) while interglacial variability comes from cooling episodes (Bond events; figure 45).
What was done, was to take a large number of models that could not reasonably simulate known patterns of natural behaviour (such as ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), claim that such models nonetheless accurately depicted natural internal climate variability, and use the fact that these models could not replicate
the warming episode from the mid seventies through the mid nineties, to argue that forcing was necessary and that the forcing must have been due to man.
The point that the more skeptical would make is that given some unnatural character with the current warming could we use the Marcott paper's analyses and evidence to rule out that previous
warming episodes were as intense or more so than the modern one.
The positive phase of the PNA pattern tends to be associated with Pacific
warm episodes (El Niño), and the negative phase tends to be associated with Pacific cold episodes (La Niña).»
37) would show a positive trend over the previous 40 yr in a regression analysis, even though the main feature was a single decadal
warming episode in the 1980s that was followed by cool anomalies.»