A company with a high return on net assets ratio, profit
margin, or asset turnover relative
to its industry median tends
to have greater
mean reversion in these measures.
I remember seeing a study that showed
mean reversion in businesses; high
margin businesses go back
to low -
to - average
margin, high return on cap goes
to normal, high earnings growth peters out
to low growth... negative
to low growth goes up
to average or high growth etc..
I've posted here regularly about the implications of
mean reversion in elevated profit
margins (see, for example, The Temptation To Abandon Proven Models In Speculative and Fearful Markets: Why This Time Isn't Different, What Record Corporate Profit Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Compet
margins (see, for example, The Temptation
To Abandon Proven Models In Speculative and Fearful Markets: Why This Time Isn't Different, What Record Corporate Profit
Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Compet
Margins Imply For Future Profitability and The Stock Market, Warren Buffett, Jeremy Grantham, and John Hussman on Profit, GDP and Competition).
If you normalise the fuel
margins the implied multiple can start
to look less attractive, and
to the extent the market does not expect
mean reversion in terms of fuel
margins this could lead
to a nasty surprise.