As shown, the level of real (inflation adjusted)
margin debt as a percentage of real GDP has reached levels only witnessed at the peaks of the last two financial bubble peaks in the U.S.»
Margin debt as a proportion of GDP is not quite yet at the peak set in 2007, but it has exceeded 2.25 % only twice previously in the last 50 years — 2000 and 2007.
Not exact matches
Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those reflected in such forward - looking statements and that should be considered in evaluating our outlook include, but are not limited to, the following: 1) our ability to continue to grow our business and execute our growth strategy, including the timing, execution, and profitability of new and maturing programs; 2) our ability to perform our obligations under our new and maturing commercial, business aircraft, and military development programs, and the related recurring production; 3) our ability to accurately estimate and manage performance, cost, and revenue under our contracts, including our ability to achieve certain cost reductions with respect to the B787 program; 4)
margin pressures and the potential for additional forward losses on new and maturing programs; 5) our ability to accommodate, and the cost of accommodating, announced increases in the build rates of certain aircraft; 6) the effect on aircraft demand and build rates of changing customer preferences for business aircraft, including the effect of global economic conditions on the business aircraft market and expanding conflicts or political unrest in the Middle East or Asia; 7) customer cancellations or deferrals
as a result of global economic uncertainty or otherwise; 8) the effect of economic conditions in the industries and markets in which we operate in the U.S. and globally and any changes therein, including fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; 9) the success and timely execution of key milestones such
as the receipt of necessary regulatory approvals, including our ability to obtain in a timely fashion any required regulatory or other third party approvals for the consummation of our announced acquisition of Asco, and customer adherence to their announced schedules; 10) our ability to successfully negotiate, or re-negotiate, future pricing under our supply agreements with Boeing and our other customers; 11) our ability to enter into profitable supply arrangements with additional customers; 12) the ability of all parties to satisfy their performance requirements under existing supply contracts with our two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and other customers, and the risk of nonpayment by such customers; 13) any adverse impact on Boeing's and Airbus» production of aircraft resulting from cancellations, deferrals, or reduced orders by their customers or from labor disputes, domestic or international hostilities, or acts of terrorism; 14) any adverse impact on the demand for air travel or our operations from the outbreak of diseases or epidemic or pandemic outbreaks; 15) our ability to avoid or recover from cyber-based or other security attacks, information technology failures, or other disruptions; 16) returns on pension plan assets and the impact of future discount rate changes on pension obligations; 17) our ability to borrow additional funds or refinance
debt, including our ability to obtain the
debt to finance the purchase price for our announced acquisition of Asco on favorable terms or at all; 18) competition from commercial aerospace original equipment manufacturers and other aerostructures suppliers; 19) the effect of governmental laws, such
as U.S. export control laws and U.S. and foreign anti-bribery laws such
as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act and the United Kingdom Bribery Act, and environmental laws and agency regulations, both in the U.S. and abroad; 20) the effect of changes in tax law, such
as the effect of The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (the «TCJA») that was enacted on December 22, 2017, and changes to the interpretations of or guidance related thereto, and the Company's ability to accurately calculate and estimate the effect of such changes; 21) any reduction in our credit ratings; 22) our dependence on our suppliers,
as well
as the cost and availability of raw materials and purchased components; 23) our ability to recruit and retain a critical mass of highly - skilled employees and our relationships with the unions representing many of our employees; 24) spending by the U.S. and other governments on defense; 25) the possibility that our cash flows and our credit facility may not be adequate for our additional capital needs or for payment of interest on, and principal of, our indebtedness; 26) our exposure under our revolving credit facility to higher interest payments should interest rates increase substantially; 27) the effectiveness of any interest rate hedging programs; 28) the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting; 29) the outcome or impact of ongoing or future litigation, claims, and regulatory actions; 30) exposure to potential product liability and warranty claims; 31) our ability to effectively assess, manage and integrate acquisitions that we pursue, including our ability to successfully integrate the Asco business and generate synergies and other cost savings; 32) our ability to consummate our announced acquisition of Asco in a timely matter while avoiding any unexpected costs, charges, expenses, adverse changes to business relationships and other business disruptions for ourselves and Asco
as a result of the acquisition; 33) our ability to continue selling certain receivables through our supplier financing program; 34) the risks of doing business internationally, including fluctuations in foreign current exchange rates, impositions of tariffs or embargoes, compliance with foreign laws, and domestic and foreign government policies; and 35) our ability to complete the proposed accelerated stock repurchase plan, among other things.
Nearly 20 percent of people who own cryptocurrencies such
as Bitcoin went into
debt to buy it, or bought it on
margin.
The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such
as its reasonable valuation levels, expanding profit
margins, largely solid financial position with reasonable
debt levels by most measures and notable return on equity.
The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such
as its expanding profit
margins and largely solid financial position with reasonable
debt levels by most measures.
China's biggest lenders are in the midst of a revival, posting faster profit growth and generally healthier net interest
margins after years of rising bad
debt as economic growth slowed down.
HPFS gross
margin decreased for the three and nine months ended July 31, 2011 due primarily to lower portfolio
margins from a higher mix of operating leases and higher transaction taxes, the effect of which was partially offset by higher
margins on lease extensions and lower bad
debt expense
as a percentage of revenue.
It is difficult to understand why the record burden of consumer
debt will be impervious to a rising unemployment rate, particularly when companies are facing a substantial acceleration in wage inflation in recent months
as they try to shore up profit
margins - making substantial new layoffs inevitable.
The decrease in gross
margin was the result of lower portfolio
margins from a higher mix of operating leases and higher transaction taxes, partially offset by higher
margins on lease extensions and lower bad
debt expense
as a percentage of revenue.
When times are good, sales ticking higher,
margins expanding and cash flows strong, only the advantages of leverage are visible - higher returns on equity, faster growth rates and an enhanced benefit to stock holders
as debt is repaid.
The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such
as its revenue growth, largely solid financial position with reasonable
debt levels by most measures, notable return on equity, increase in stock price during the past year and expanding profit
margins.
History is testament that Record NYSE
Margin Debt is the catalyst that can lead to another 1987 - Like Stock market Crash...
as it happened in 2000 - 2002 and 2007 - 2008.
To investigate, we relate the behavior of NYSE end - of - month
margin debt, published with a delay of about a month, with the monthly behavior of the S&P 500 Index
as a proxy for the U.S. stock market.
Does
margin debt serve
as an intermediate - term stock market sentiment indicator based on either momentum (with an increase / decrease in
margin debt signaling a continuing stock market advance / decline) or reversion (with change in
margin debt signaling a pending reversal)?
This is a strong indication that the
margin debt level has almost reached its peak and the stock market will also
as a consequence peak soon!
As with other forms of
debt, the
margin and interest rate that a borrower receives on a variable rate loan are heavily dependent on credit score, lender and loan product.
Currently the
margin debt of the NYSE expressed
as a percentage of US GDP is 1.85 times higher than the median for the past 292 months of 1.55 %.
As the late, great Benjamin Graham said, in the long term, the stock market is a weighing machine, judging stocks based on measurable criteria like earnings, sales,
debt, profit
margins, and return on equity.
In fact, the broker can go so far
as to liquidate your entire account, including non-related securities, to pay off the
margin debt without giving you any warning at all; not even the opportunity to come up with additional funds.
China's stock rally has come
as a sharp contrast to the nation's slowing economy and is all the more precarious because it has been driven by unprecedented levels of
margin financing, or investors» taking on
debt to trade in shares.
The World Bank report noted that the resulting forecasts form basis for budget planning, adding that «these forecasts are frequently inaccurate, often by wide
margins; ideally, oil - revenue projections should err on the side underestimation,
as overestimating future revenues can disrupt investment execution and undermine
debt sustainability.»
As with other forms of
debt, the
margin and interest rate that a borrower receives on a variable rate loan are heavily dependent on credit score, lender and loan product.
And here is the second try: Gross
margins as a ratio of Assets over 13 %, free cash flow yield over 5 %, Long - term
debt as a ratio of free cash flow greater than five, less than 20 % above the 52 - week low.
For years, the FHA has advertised its products
as loans for consumers «on the
margins» of homeownership; those with less - than - perfect credit scores, with elevated
debt - to - income ratios, or with a lack of credit history.
I value each company and invest only in those trading way below their intrinsic value and have certain characteristics, such
as low
debt, predictability, constant or growing
margins, etc..
When the
debt / equity ratio is greater than 25 percent it starts to erode the
margin of safety that is important to me
as a net - net investor.
So, the borrower, first of all, tries to avoid getting a
margin call by trading efficiently, and in unavoidable circumstances of having received a
margin call, the
debt must be paid
as soon
as possible to avoid further damage.
Among these are avoiding companies with too much
debt; looking for a
margin of safety, such
as over - 2.0 current ratio (current assets dividend by current liabilities); and seeking stocks trading at low price - earnings ratios and low price - to - book - value ratios.
As long as you can justify a future profit margin and benefit to taking on more debt, you shouldn't have a problem with approval as long as other requirements are in plac
As long
as you can justify a future profit margin and benefit to taking on more debt, you shouldn't have a problem with approval as long as other requirements are in plac
as you can justify a future profit
margin and benefit to taking on more
debt, you shouldn't have a problem with approval
as long as other requirements are in plac
as long
as other requirements are in plac
as other requirements are in place.
If you do the other things I recommend, such
as creating a personal mission statement and boosting your profit
margin, you'll naturally pay off
debt as a matter of course.
Seeks to capture large cap stock mispricing opportunities due to market inefficiency, by continuously computing relative valuation of large cap stocks according to growth factors such
as earnings growth rate, sales growth rate, p / e / g ratios, asset turnover rate, operating
margin,
debt / equity ratio, free cash flow, relative price strength, etc..
Borrowing money for the purpose of leveraging a stock position is known
as margin debt.
[Based on this adjusted
margin, I calculate another # 23 million in
debt (at an assumed 5 % rate, for acquisitions etc.) would still limit finance expense to 15 % of adjusted
margin —
as usual, let's apply a 50 % haircut, just to be conservative].
Margin debt is at its highest level since the 1920s, though
as a percentage of market capitalization, it is lower than it was in 2000.
It's also possible that net
debt balances have changed over time and that could have an impact on profit
margins,
as well.
As of last week, the market remained characterized by an overvalued, overbought conditions, complicated by extremely high leverage through
margin debt, and record bullishness among institutional investors, according to the Barron's Big Money Poll.
As we know M1 / GDP is at all - time records today (90 cent per dollar of GDP), so
margin debt can potentially rise a lot more in absolute terms to create an uber - bubble!
Of course, the usual temptation here is to rely primarily on quantitative analysis — let the numbers do the talking — focusing on the consistency & sustainability of strong free cash flow (
as a % of net income), high net
margins, high return on equity (though not dependent on excessive
debt), and good return on assets (in excess of WACC).
With net finance cost just under 10 % of trading
margin, an additional $ 0.7 billion
debt adjustment is appropriate — which we'll haircut by 50 %,
as usual.
Let's be kind & presume an average
margin of 7.2 % is possible, now the
debt restructuring's given the company some breathing room — this deserves the same 0.6 P / S multiple
as last year.
As of end - September 2017, margin debt on the NYSE was a record $ 559.6 billion, which is to be expected as U.S. equity indices were also near all - time highs, and stock market peaks and record levels of margin debt often coincid
As of end - September 2017,
margin debt on the NYSE was a record $ 559.6 billion, which is to be expected
as U.S. equity indices were also near all - time highs, and stock market peaks and record levels of margin debt often coincid
as U.S. equity indices were also near all - time highs, and stock market peaks and record levels of
margin debt often coincide.
While rising
margin debt levels provide the additional liquidity to drive stock prices higher on the way up, it also cuts deeply
as prices fall.»
This difference in relative size was given
as a prime example about how
margin debt is not a problem for the U.S.. However, the relative size of
margin debt in the past has not been a «safety net» that investors should rely on.
Margin debt rises and falls with the market
as seen in the chart below.
If you mean that you'd be paying off the
margin debt with $ 200 added to the account each month, yes you're right (I guess you'd pay it off in about 10 months ignoring dividends from the stock you bought that wasn't on
margin and decreased interest payments
as you paid down the
debt each month).
Do focus on sales (growth), gross / operating
margins,
debt & cashflows — not earnings ratios —
as any corporate acquirer would.
To better reflect actual cash flows, this time we'll reference Google's 31 % GAAP operating
margin: The company could add $ 91 billion of
debt & comfortably maintain 6.7 times interest coverage (assuming a 5 % long - term interest rate)--
as usual, I'll apply a conservative 50 % haircut & deduct current outstanding
debt of $ 3.9 billion, to arrive at a $ 42 billion
debt capacity adjustment.
Again, a higher level of
debt can be sustained — an additional 9.4 million of
debt still limits interest expense to 15 % of our average adjusted Op FCF
margin, and
as usual we'll haircut by 50 % & include
as a further adjustment.
By paying down
debt (and therefore reducing interest costs) and by slashing operating expenses: gross
margin actually increased which is very rare when revenues decline,
as fixed costs are spread out across fewer sold units.