The NYSE
margin debt rose by $ 42.22 billion about 8.863 % in the past two months — and by 13.081 % or a total of $ 62.317 in the past three months!
Margin debt rises and falls with the market as seen in the chart below.
Not exact matches
This would sharply enhance growth rates during the expansion phase, much like
margin borrowing enhances returns when market prices are
rising faster than the
debt servicing costs, but at the expense of sub-par performance once conditions reverse.
China's biggest lenders are in the midst of a revival, posting faster profit growth and generally healthier net interest
margins after years of
rising bad
debt as economic growth slowed down.
It is difficult to understand why the record burden of consumer
debt will be impervious to a
rising unemployment rate, particularly when companies are facing a substantial acceleration in wage inflation in recent months as they try to shore up profit
margins - making substantial new layoffs inevitable.
Much of the recent growth in
margin debt has reflected an increase in the average loan size, which has
risen by around $ 13,000 to $ 107,000 over the past year.
Although it is less than 2 per cent of total household
debt, growth in
margin lending has accounted for over a fifth of the
rise in banks» personal lending (excluding credit cards) since 1996.
Before 2007, the increase of 35.9 or higher basis points had occurred when the NYSE
margin debt / USGDP peaked at its all time highs of 2.78 % in March of 2000 after having
risen by 47.4 basis points in just three months!
According to NIA, after the dot - com bubble had burst, the NYSE
margin debt in nominal terms
rose from its low of $ 130.21 billion in 2002 to a high of $ 381.37 billion in 2007 — that is a
rise of 193 %.
From January 2015, the
margin of the
debt / GDP ratio of the NYSE has
risen in the last three months about 35.9 basis points — that is the biggest basis point registered for the past eight years!
The «officially tabulated» mainstream b.s. reports are not picking up the numbers, but the large credit card issuers (like Capital One) and auto
debt issuers (like Santander Consumer USA) have been showing a dramatic
rise in troubled credit card and auto
debt loans for several quarters, especially in the sub-prime segment which is now, arguably the majority of consumer
debt issuance at the
margin.
Combine this with
rising interest rates, high
margin debt, age of this bull market and lack of fear a potential bear market might not be that far off.
There could be structural differences in
margin debt — more hedge positions — so the charts could be misleading, but they could be an indication of
rising risk.
Margin debt in the United States — money borrowed against securities in brokerage accounts — has
risen to its highest level ever, at $ 384 billion, surpassing the previous peak of $ 381 billion set in July 2007 according to New York Times Business Day's Off The Charts: Sign of Excess?.
History tends to punish bull markets when speculative frenzies hover around a narrowing list of stand - outs (e.g., Netflix, First Solar, etc.), an increasing number of initial public offerings (e.g., Twitter, Container Store, etc.) and / or a dramatic
rise in
margin debt.
As we know M1 / GDP is at all - time records today (90 cent per dollar of GDP), so
margin debt can potentially
rise a lot more in absolute terms to create an uber - bubble!
While
rising margin debt levels provide the additional liquidity to drive stock prices higher on the way up, it also cuts deeply as prices fall.»
While
rising prices are squeezing potential
margins, Wall Street - backed investors are able to increase their returns by using low - cost
debt to finance their purchases.