Sentences with phrase «marginal polls»

Unlike Lord Ashcroft's marginal polls (which are actually a series of individual constituency polls in seats that are marginals, which we can aggregate together to get an extremely large sample across a group of marginal seats) ComRes's poll is a more traditional marginals poll — a single poll of a group of marginal seats, meaning it gives us a measure of those seats as a whole, but has far too few people to tell us anything about the individual seats within that group.

As regular readers will recall, ComRes's marginal polls cover the 40 most marginal Con - v - Lab seats (25 Conservative held, 15 Labour held).

As I've written before when writing about constituency polls of Lib Dem seats and marginal polls of Lib Dem battlegrounds, we don't really have the evidence from past elections to judge what the most accurate methods are.

The crucial thing when looking at marginal polls is the swing from the last election, and how that compares to the swing implied by the national polls.

We've seen an increase in marginal polls and, more importantly, we've seen an increase in regular marginal polls — Lord Ashcroft and ComRes are both doing regular polls of the same groups or group of marginal seats.

That's the sort of thing that's happened in the third of Lord Ashcroft's three sets of marginal polls — full details here.

Marginal polls used to only come along occasionally, varied a lot, polled different groups of seats, and didn't often happen right before elections so weren't tested against reality, meaning methods weren't finessed and improved over time in the same way national polls are.

Lord Ashcroft's findings in the marginal polls however have shown a slight weakening in the Labour position relative to the Conservatives, looking at just the 12 ultra-marginal seats the Conservatives are down by about 1.5 % on average, Labour down by about 2.7 %, UKIP up by about 4.5 %.

Different pollsters are also doing marginal polls of roughly the same marginal seats — Ashcroft, ComRes and this week Survation have all done polls that include ultra-marginal Conservative - v - Labour seats.

ComRes's regular marginal polls cover the 40 most marginal Con v Lab seats, 25 held by the Tories, 15 held by Labour.

The difference between the national picture and the marginal picture will normally be so subtle that it could easily be lost under or mistaken for normal sample variation, or the methodological differences in doing marginal polls (or vice-versa, normal volatility or methodological impacts could be mistaken for a different pattern in the marginals when there is none).

Two types of constituencies feature in my last round of marginals polling for 2014.

My marginals polling has consistently shown around three quarters of Conservatives saying they would definitely not vote UKIP.

Recent marginal polling by Lord Ashcroft suggest that this could already be happening.

CrosbyTextor have sent be the tables for the marginal poll in the Sunday Telegraph.

I'm about to head up to Birmingham, so won't necessarily be around much for the next few days (not least, when Lord Ashcroft releases his latest marginal poll at 2 pm today I'll be on a train!)

Headlines claiming that the final Ipsos MORI marginals poll shows the Tories are on course for a clear victory can be safely ignored.

The ousting of top Lib Dem Alexander in this seat looks to be a realistic prospect - a Lord Ashcroft marginal poll in February found the SNP on 50 % with the Lib Dems on 21 %.

Note that this wasn't what we've often called a «marginal poll» in the past (a single poll of a group of marginal seats), it was 14 separate polls, one in each seat, individually sampled and weighted.

Lord Ashcroft has repeated the same sort of large marginals poll that PoliticsHome did in 2008 and 2009, looking at the clusters of key marginal seats that will provide the battleground for the next general election.

As with the ComRes marginal poll in the week the seats polled were mostly ultra-marginal seats — in this case, the 12 most marginal Con - Lab seats, the 12 most marginal Lab - Con seats, but whereas the ComRes poll was a single sample representing the most marginal 40, these were 24 individual samples, one from each seat.

Three new polls so far today — the two regular GB polls from Ashcroft and Populus and ComRes's monthly marginals poll.

Lord Ashcroft has produced another round of marginal polling — full details here.

Earlier in the week we also had a fresh lot of Ashcroft marginals polls that I didn't get chance to look at — details are here.

The picture painted by the Ashcroft marginal poll is not particularly surprising — a big swing from Con to Labour, the Liberal Democrats collapsing where they are against Labour but more resilient against the Conservatives.

Looking at the wider findings from the marginals poll we have identified the most important factors that separate 2010 Conservative voters who plan to vote Conservative again from those who don't — whatever they say they will do instead.

All of the evidence is that they'll do much, much better in seats that they currently hold and in which they have significant campaigning infrastructure (see Lord Ashcroft's marginal polling and Rob Hayward's reflection on council results).

Not exact matches

London, which has predominantly polled as Remain, is putting up some huge marginal votes for staying in the EU, such as:

We believe the Brexit vote will continue to be top of mind this week, as polls point to a marginal lead for those on the «leave» side.

Today's Times quotes two Tories in marginal seats, who criticise Cameron for a series of «unforced errors» during the campaign and a failure to «deliver the lift in the national polls that we need».

First, while marginal seat polling has been too inconsistent to enable firm conclusions to be drawn, the regional variations bode well for the Conservatives.

Ukip are replacing the Conservatives as the natural challengers to Labour in marginal seats across the country according to new polling conducted for the party.

In the key marginal of Thanet South in Kent, the Conservative party are set to lose the seat to Labour with Ukip coming a close second, according to the first of eight new constituency polls.

The poll commissioned by Conservative peer Michael Ashcroft found that Labour have extended their lead in the UK's most marginal seats.

They are outperforming the polls in the marginals.

This meant looking at polling data on voting intentions in key marginal seats, votes in the most recent local elections and the resources each party is likely to have to spend on campaigning in the area.

My research in 2014 has included a weekly national telephone poll, surveys in over 100 marginal seats, two rounds of my Project Blueprint research on the quest for a Conservative majority, a detailed study of voters» attitudes to Europe, polling - day surveys of voters in the European elections, five by - election polls, and regular updates on the state of the parties.

However, the poll of 13,000 people finds the increased lead is due not to a surge in Labour popularity but to a tripling of the UKIP vote in the marginals.»

Polls show tories ahead more in the marginals.

As ever, though, national polls can only tell us so much — it would be in the marginal seats that A.V. would make a decisive difference.

These national poll findings suggest that the first time vote may well prove to be particularly open and up for grabs in LibDem - Conservative marginals, but it may be a challenge for both sides to persuade first time voters of the value of backing a candidate who has a chance in the constituency race.

«For the exit poll seat projections to be right, Labour had to be wiped out in Scotland, the Liberal Democrats would have to be wiped out in their Tory marginals and we would have to done really badly in the English marginals,» the campaign aide recalled.

The Liberal Democrats» vote has fallen by half in constituencies where Labour are their main challengers, according to my latest round of polling in marginal seats.

And in particular the Lord Ashcroft polls of Lib Dem marginals showing what a massive uphill task faces the party, though they do at least show that our MPs» incumbency still works massively in our favour.

After yesterday's Channel 4 News poll showing plummeting Conservative support in key marginal seats, leading Tory lobbyist Peter Bingle emails colleagues to describe his «despair» at his party's election campaign.

The Liberal candidate for the new WA seat of Burt is «very, very hopeful» of winning, despite marginal seat polling showing it is the most likely electorate in the state to go to Labor.

For more on the Channel 4 News / YouGov poll and the Ashcroft tax row - Exclusive: Tory lead shrinks in key marginals - Analysis: Tories short of overall majority - Download the Channel 4 News / YouGov poll results - Ashcroft comes clean over non-dom status - Cameron knew Ashcroft was non-dom - Hague told Ashcroft non-dom «in recent months» - Exclusive: Ashcroft «not suitable for a peerage»

Not only can the state of play in the marginals look rather different from the national polls, different kinds of marginal seat can look rather different from each other.

«The UKIP threat is draining Tory support in key marginal seats so much that the party could let Ed Miliband into Downing Street, according to a poll released today by Lord Ashcroft, former deputy chairman of the Conservative party.

One recent poll of marginal seats found 74 % of Labour voters and 75 % of Ukip voters backed their local service being bought by the state.