The tories should hold this, UKIP and the liberal democrats will lose out as in
a marginal seat as such, people usually vote for the main competing seats.
It was
a marginal seat as it was and I was worried that people wouldn't have a chance to get to know me.
He soon realised that Croydon Central was in effect a highly
marginal seat as the demography was moving against the Conservatives.
It will come from Tory MPs in
marginal seats as their constituents complain that they can not secure GP or hospital appointments.
Labour has an absolute majority in the Commons, even if every single non-Labour MP voted against it is unlikely that even the most rebellious Labour Backbencher would bite against their party especially those in
marginal seats as Turkeys do not vote for Xmas.
Not exact matches
With the emergence of the black churches, which are engaged in electoral registration drives and are seeking to become a political force
as in America, the Coalition parties risk punishment in the
marginal seats.
He did not stumble in politics though
as his charisma led him to victory in the highly
marginal seat of Lewisham North for the Conservatives in 1958.
Instead of mucking in with the multifarious resistance movement - which,
as you rightly state here, does not require universal agreement in order to progress, that sort of Leninist thinking is weedkiller to the grassroots - Labour is already positioning itself for the next election, terrified of doing anything at all which might upset the few swing voters in key
marginal seats that the party has repositioned itself towards over the past twenty years.
Ukip are replacing the Conservatives
as the natural challengers to Labour in
marginal seats across the country according to new polling conducted for the party.
How can the Conservatives ever secure London
marginals that have become Labour safe
seats overnight, such
as Tooting and Ealing Central and Acton?
I decided to commission my own research to establish the real state of public opinion: the true level of support for the parties, the underlying attributes associated with each, whether the picture in
marginal seats really was different to that in Britain
as a whole, whether the Conservatives» 164 -
seat battleground made sense, and why the candidates I was helping to fund were finding it so hard to build support.
As ever, though, national polls can only tell us so much — it would be in the
marginal seats that A.V. would make a decisive difference.
He is almost
as old
as I am, lost three councillors in Eastleigh the other day via defections, Eastleigh is a pretty
marginal seat.
And a handful of MPs, including ministers like Norman Lamb and Jo Swinson (if she retains her
marginal seat), who could emerge through the middle
as the compromise candidate.
If the election is
as close
as many commentators anticipate, first time voters could have a significant impact, particularly in
marginal seats.
At the 2005 election, her
seat became the most
marginal in Wales
as her Conservative challenger reduced her majority to 1,146.
The 1992 election saw the pinnacle of Conservatives Abroad's history, with the expat vote recognised
as helping the party win a number of
marginal seats.
At the 2005 election the
seat was Liberal Democrat target number 18, and Conservative target number 50; it had been frequently described in the media
as a «three - way
marginal», and all parties fought hard for the constituency.
Stroud has been relative to others a very
marginal seat since 1992
as well
as a swing
seat as its winner's majority has not exceeded 9.1 % of the vote since the 19.2 % majority won in that year.
As a party leader, Nigel's job is to talk up favourable polls — like those recently commissioned from Survation by his party treasurer, Alan Bown, which put UKIP in a strong position in various marginal seats — or dismiss bad ones, or advise us to ignore them altogether, as circumstances dictat
As a party leader, Nigel's job is to talk up favourable polls — like those recently commissioned from Survation by his party treasurer, Alan Bown, which put UKIP in a strong position in various
marginal seats — or dismiss bad ones, or advise us to ignore them altogether,
as circumstances dictat
as circumstances dictate.
I suspect it was also therapeutic and he then thought of publishing it
as a guide to other Conservative candidates in
marginal seats.
It comes
as a series of new polls suggest that the party are making no progress in the
marginal seats they need to win from Labour in order to form the next government.
Funding targeting key
marginal seats is being provided by one of the Conservatives» shadiest sources of cash,
as the debate about party funding continues.
@ChrisBryantMP:
As for the rumours that Boris would go for the very
marginal seat of corby - an inverted pyramid of piffle!
And
as every Tory
seat bar one is in England or Wales, this adjustment increases the number of Tory
marginals that Labour could hope to gain (and, also, reduce fractionally the number of
seats that the Tories regain from the Lib Dems).
Boundaries have changed in many
seats since 2005, and the strength of the Lib Dems means some two - way
marginals now look more like three - way
marginals: add in the rise of smaller parties such
as the Greens, plus highly volatile national polls, and even hardened tactical voters may struggle to work out which horse to back locally this time.
In most
seats this is only a
marginal difference — in Lib Dem held
seats it can be substantial,
as repeatedly shown in polls of Lib Dem
marginal seats using a two - stage national - then - constituency voting intention questions (see here by Lord Ashcroft, and here by YouGov).
He has produced a table listing 32
marginal seats that the Tories ought to be targeting at the next election (defined
as requiring a 5 % or under swing from red or yellow to blue).
But in 2014,
as a failed parliamentary candidate desperate to get back into the party's good graces, he launched a grassroots volunteer scheme that sent party members into
marginal seats to distribute leaflets, knock on doors, and work the voters.
He has produced a table listing 32
marginal seats that the Tories ought to be targeting at the next election (defined
as requiring a 5 % o
It is difficult to prove that the battlebus campaign was the factor that swung the last election in the Conservatives» favour, although it was specifically targeting
marginal and swing
seats, and clearly the Tories saw it
as a key campaigning tool.
Though the Conservative Party tried its best to take some of the more
marginal seats between it and Labour, such
as Bridgend and Newport West, Labour successfully defended all of its 25
seats and took a further three (Gower, Cardiff North, and Vale of Clwyd) from the Conservatives.
In many ways, the same ingredients and electoral logic exist to make 2015
as compelling a contest in FST
as 2010 — and there is every chance that the constituency will top the UK league table of
marginal seats once again.
Later in the campaign Populus asked Lib Dem supporters in 12 Lab / Con
marginal seats how would would vote, bearing in mind that their
seat was likely to be a close race between Labour and the Conservatives; in nearly every
seat Lib Dem supporters were
as likely to vote tactically against Labour
as they were against the Conservatives.
The
seat has been relative to others a
marginal seat since 2010
as its winner's majority has not exceeded 8.2 % of the vote since the 21.8 % majority won in that year.
In October 2008, the Electoral Commission cleared the Conservative Party of breaking electoral law by using an MIC - funded company, Coleshill Campaigning Services (aka Constituency Campaigning Services),
as a front to provide millions of pounds of services to Tories fighting
marginal seats.
David Cameron said the party's second place in Scotland and its showing in England, where it took control of Peterborough Council and won council
seats in key Westminster
marginals such
as Dudley and Nuneaton, represented a good result for a party in government for six years.
As we meet in the lower whips office, around the corner from the Commons chamber, I ask Barwell to provide his top tip for winning a
marginal seat.
Treat coastal
seats as a distinct group within the «40/40»
marginal seats - both in terms of the policy challenges they face and in terms of analysing their new Mosaic demographic data to understand the electoral features they have in common
Labour MP @Chris Bryant:
As for the rumours that Boris would go for the very
marginal seat of corby - an inverted pyramid of piffle!
As with the ComRes
marginal poll in the week the
seats polled were mostly ultra-
marginal seats — in this case, the 12 most
marginal Con - Lab
seats, the 12 most
marginal Lab - Con
seats, but whereas the ComRes poll was a single sample representing the most
marginal 40, these were 24 individual samples, one from each
seat.
However,
as we've seen in previous Lord Ashcroft polls of Lib Dem
marginals there is an awful lot of variation between individual constituencies — some
seats (Carshalton & Wallington and Thornbury & Yate) are actually showing swings from Con to LD.
It's a repeat of his first polling of Con - Lab
seats in April and now
as then, Ashcroft polled the 12 most
marginal Conservative held
seats with Labour in second place, plus two other
seats (South Thanet and Great Yarmouth) that he thought might have interesting UKIP results.
In practice of course we can't actually be that confident that voters in a tight LD - Lab
marginal will behave the same way
as in a
seat where the Lib Dems have a 20 % majority, so it's a bit of a shame Ashcroft didn't include some more challenging LD - Lab fights like Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bermondsey.
The reality is that come general elections
marginals as a group are not usually vastly different to other
seats.
Those guys could vote for Gay marriage without fear of losing in the future,
as opposed to guys in more
marginal seats like Ball or Grisanti.
This makes it imperative that Labour wins every
seat it can, including Labour - Lib Dem
marginals, lest Clegg by default act
as kingmaker to Cameron in a fit of absence of strategy.
But fear of local voters counted
as much yesterday evening
as fear of local activists - at least for MPs in
marginal seats,
As a Labour analysis shows a fall in membership in Tory associations in the most
marginal parliamentary
seats, De Piero is to launch a campaign to sign up supporters who are normally disengaged from politics.
As before, YouGov questioned people in the 60 Labour - Conservative
marginals in those
seats that Labour won by a margin of between 6 and 14 percentage points.