Sentences with phrase «marginal seat polls»

I have my doubts about the reliability of marginal seat polls since the average number of voters polled per constituency is only about 10.

Marginal seat polls matter because they are the seats that might change hands, and therefore the seats that will decide the election.

Lord Ashcroft put another batch of marginal seat polls out earlier on today.

First, while marginal seat polling has been too inconsistent to enable firm conclusions to be drawn, the regional variations bode well for the Conservatives.

The Liberal candidate for the new WA seat of Burt is «very, very hopeful» of winning, despite marginal seat polling showing it is the most likely electorate in the state to go to Labor.

The Lord Ashcroft marginal seats poll, published on the Saturday after the results, and predicting Labour gains of 80 seats, claimed frayed nerves.

My heart always sort of falls when I see a marginal seats poll, as I know how people will misinterpret it.

In the case of ComRes, their marginal seats polls cover the 40 most marginal seats with Labour and Conservative in first and second place.

My lab / con battleground GE marginal seats poll will be at http://t.co/27XLUQ3kvm at130pm tomorrow.

Not exact matches

Today's Times quotes two Tories in marginal seats, who criticise Cameron for a series of «unforced errors» during the campaign and a failure to «deliver the lift in the national polls that we need».

Ukip are replacing the Conservatives as the natural challengers to Labour in marginal seats across the country according to new polling conducted for the party.

In the key marginal of Thanet South in Kent, the Conservative party are set to lose the seat to Labour with Ukip coming a close second, according to the first of eight new constituency polls.

The poll commissioned by Conservative peer Michael Ashcroft found that Labour have extended their lead in the UK's most marginal seats.

This meant looking at polling data on voting intentions in key marginal seats, votes in the most recent local elections and the resources each party is likely to have to spend on campaigning in the area.

My research in 2014 has included a weekly national telephone poll, surveys in over 100 marginal seats, two rounds of my Project Blueprint research on the quest for a Conservative majority, a detailed study of voters» attitudes to Europe, polling - day surveys of voters in the European elections, five by - election polls, and regular updates on the state of the parties.

As ever, though, national polls can only tell us so much — it would be in the marginal seats that A.V. would make a decisive difference.

«For the exit poll seat projections to be right, Labour had to be wiped out in Scotland, the Liberal Democrats would have to be wiped out in their Tory marginals and we would have to done really badly in the English marginals,» the campaign aide recalled.

The Liberal Democrats» vote has fallen by half in constituencies where Labour are their main challengers, according to my latest round of polling in marginal seats.

After yesterday's Channel 4 News poll showing plummeting Conservative support in key marginal seats, leading Tory lobbyist Peter Bingle emails colleagues to describe his «despair» at his party's election campaign.

Not only can the state of play in the marginals look rather different from the national polls, different kinds of marginal seat can look rather different from each other.

«The UKIP threat is draining Tory support in key marginal seats so much that the party could let Ed Miliband into Downing Street, according to a poll released today by Lord Ashcroft, former deputy chairman of the Conservative party.

One recent poll of marginal seats found 74 % of Labour voters and 75 % of Ukip voters backed their local service being bought by the state.

Below is the text of the polling presentation I gave in London this evening, including my latest national poll findings and new results from marginal seats in England and Scotland.

In my last round of polling in Conservative - Labour marginals I found the Tories consolidating in most seats where they had been ahead in previous rounds, while Labour had extended their leads where they had been doing well last year.

He began to become interested in political polling in the autumn of 2004 at a time when he was already working to help Conservative candidates win — and hold on to — some of the most marginal seats up and down the country.

As a party leader, Nigel's job is to talk up favourable polls — like those recently commissioned from Survation by his party treasurer, Alan Bown, which put UKIP in a strong position in various marginal seats — or dismiss bad ones, or advise us to ignore them altogether, as circumstances dictate.

In August 2011 I conducted a poll of 41 marginal Conservative - held seats to find out whether the static national polls were hiding a more nuanced picture on this crucial battleground.

He commissioned polls in 20 Liberal Democrat - held marginal seats in September 2014.

Analysis of my polling in the forty most marginal Conservative - held seats showed that Tory «defectors» and UKIP voters are not the same people.

Taken together, groups of Conservative - Labour marginals in my research have shown swings to Labour at a similar level to those in the national polls, but there are wide variations between seats with similar majorities: in the first round, published in May, I found swings to Labour of 8 % in Amber Valley and just 2 % in Morecambe & Lunesdale.

What Ross shows is that Crosby recruited the best campaigners and pollsters, and carried out specific and detailed continuous polling in priority seats — Conservative marginals, but also Labour marginals, and increasingly in «safe» Lib Dem seats in the south and south west.

It comes as a series of new polls suggest that the party are making no progress in the marginal seats they need to win from Labour in order to form the next government.

We still haven't seen a post-election Populus voting intention poll (though to answer Mike Smithson's question here, I understand they are still doing them, they are just having a quiet period following the election), but Lord Ashcroft has commissioned them to do some polling in marginal seats, with some interesting findings.

A poll of 100 key marginals by Crosby / Textor is reported in today's Daily Telegraph to show the Conservatives picking up 74 Labour seats but none of the 20 Liberal Democrat seats in the sample.

Boundaries have changed in many seats since 2005, and the strength of the Lib Dems means some two - way marginals now look more like three - way marginals: add in the rise of smaller parties such as the Greens, plus highly volatile national polls, and even hardened tactical voters may struggle to work out which horse to back locally this time.

In most seats this is only a marginal difference — in Lib Dem held seats it can be substantial, as repeatedly shown in polls of Lib Dem marginal seats using a two - stage national - then - constituency voting intention questions (see here by Lord Ashcroft, and here by YouGov).

This seems to be on the back of opinion polls which may not have changed if you allow for their inbuilt margin of error and which certainly ignore the fact that Northern marginal seats are running ahead of the national figures.

Recent polling in Lib Dem - Tory marginals suggests that Nick Clegg's party will keep almost all of the 23 Lib Dem seats David Cameron needs to win for a majority.

«Unfortunately, the polling I have already done in individual seats, starting with the most marginal, shows the Tories already behind in 24.»

Recent polling of key marginal seats by Lord Ashcroft found that Cameron's party can afford to lose no more than 21 seats to Labour in order to remain the largest party in parliament.

The polling by Lord Ashcroft found that despite the dreadful national figures, the party is actually running level with the Conservatives in most of the marginal seats that David Cameron needs to win a majority next year.

The ousting of top Lib Dem Alexander in this seat looks to be a realistic prospect - a Lord Ashcroft marginal poll in February found the SNP on 50 % with the Lib Dems on 21 %.

April's Lord Aschroft poll of marginal Scottish seats saw a 26.5 % swing towards the SNP against the Scottish Labour leader, with the Scottish Nationalists now nine points clear in East Renfrewshire.

Recent polling of Liberal Democrat marginals found that while the party faces losing dozens of seats to Labour, they could hold on to a surprising number of seats against the Conservatives.

His previous polling of Lib - v - Lab seats was a little disappointing — he polled the four most marginal LD - v - Lab seats, all of which fell to Labour easily on huge swings.

Note that this wasn't what we've often called a «marginal poll» in the past (a single poll of a group of marginal seats), it was 14 separate polls, one in each seat, individually sampled and weighted.

The average position in the national polls when this fieldwork was being done (10th September — 3rd October) was a 3.6 % Labour lead, so once again the difference between the swing in the marginal seats and the swing in the national polls is tiny.

Lord Ashcroft has repeated the same sort of large marginals poll that PoliticsHome did in 2008 and 2009, looking at the clusters of key marginal seats that will provide the battleground for the next general election.

It's not a very exciting finding — swing in Conservative marginals not vastly different to other seats — but it's one that gives me some confidence in the poll.

As with the ComRes marginal poll in the week the seats polled were mostly ultra-marginal seats — in this case, the 12 most marginal Con - Lab seats, the 12 most marginal Lab - Con seats, but whereas the ComRes poll was a single sample representing the most marginal 40, these were 24 individual samples, one from each seat.