Sentences with phrase «marginal seats from»

In the marginal seats, the poll used the same trick I did back in the PoliticsHome polling of marginal seats from 2008.

The 52 - year - old is one of the few senior Tory MPs to have won a marginal seat from Labour, taking Hastings and Rye in 2010.

Not exact matches

The Liberal MP for the Victorian seat of Murray, Sharman Stone, said the Cadbury grant was all about trying to win a marginal Tasmanian seat yet the loss of SPC Ardmona from her region would present a «real manufacturing emergency».

The voters in marginal seats receive, no doubt to their delight, a great deal more attention from the parties than anyone else.

Pendulum - find the electorates on the electoral pendulum, with seats listed from the most marginal to the safest.

The electoral pendulum orders seats from the most marginal to safest based on results of the last election.

The intelligence from Populus was brought to them by the same team who run operations in the party's marginal seats.

Welcome to Hot Seats, a series in which local academics report from the UK's marginal constituencies.

Not only can the state of play in the marginals look rather different from the national polls, different kinds of marginal seat can look rather different from each other.

Labor retained its most marginal seats and gained La Trobe and McEwen from the Liberal Party in 2010, ending the chances of a Coalition majority.

Switching from Labour to UKIP in a Labour marginal, or switching to UKIP from anyone in a safe Labour seat, is clearly not going to make a Miliband premiership more likely.

Below is the text of the polling presentation I gave in London this evening, including my latest national poll findings and new results from marginal seats in England and Scotland.

As a party leader, Nigel's job is to talk up favourable polls — like those recently commissioned from Survation by his party treasurer, Alan Bown, which put UKIP in a strong position in various marginal seats — or dismiss bad ones, or advise us to ignore them altogether, as circumstances dictate.

Harman still pops up from time to time in her pink bus, dropping in on marginal seats to talk to women voters.

But from those that were, we can see a picture that is both grim and variable - Labour losing its ultra-marginals, in with half a chance of clinging onto one or two slightly more solid marginals, in danger of losing some of its semi-marginals, and at risk of losing rock solid safe seats in long - standing Labour heartlands.

It comes as a series of new polls suggest that the party are making no progress in the marginal seats they need to win from Labour in order to form the next government.

Firstly, in Conservative - vs - Labour marginals the Conservative vote is largely unchanged from the general election, but the Liberal Democrat vote has dropped to the benefit of Labour, this means on a uniform swing Labour would gain about 28 seats from the Conservatives (though these would be seats that the Conservatives gained at the last election, so in practice the Tories would be helped by the incumbency bonus of the new MPs).

Virtually all the Conservative - held marginals are being defended by MPs who gained their seats (mainly from Labour) in 2010.

jsfl, In order to calculate the swing from 2005 in these marginal seats, we need to have the party shares that occurred in these constituencies — not the national shares.Given that Anthony is quoting a 29 % Con lead over Labour and a swing of approximately 11 % from Lab to Con since 2005, the implication is that in 2005 the Tories enjoyed a 7 % lead over Labour in these paricular seats!

Exactly how they asked this is unclear from Lord Ashcroft's report, but the ultimate effect is that the Conservatives hold onto an extra 12 seats in Con - v - Lab marginals (implying that Lib Dems and others» second preferences broke in the Conservatives favour), and the Lib Dems hold onto an extra 11 seats in Con - v - LD marginals.

And as every Tory seat bar one is in England or Wales, this adjustment increases the number of Tory marginals that Labour could hope to gain (and, also, reduce fractionally the number of seats that the Tories regain from the Lib Dems).

The Tories will want to snatch Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, in the Borders and Scotland's most marginal seat, from the SNP's Calum Kerr.

He has produced a table listing 32 marginal seats that the Tories ought to be targeting at the next election (defined as requiring a 5 % or under swing from red or yellow to blue).

I suspect that not more than one quarter of the money from CCHQ (5 % of our total campaign spend in marginal seats) is funded by Lord Ashcroft.

Though the Conservative Party tried its best to take some of the more marginal seats between it and Labour, such as Bridgend and Newport West, Labour successfully defended all of its 25 seats and took a further three (Gower, Cardiff North, and Vale of Clwyd) from the Conservatives.

[9][10] He was one of 130 candidates who received help from 20,000 countryside campaigners from the Countryside Party who «poured into marginal seats all over Britain» in an attempt to unseat anti-hunting Labour MPs.

Hot Seats is a series in which academics report from the UK's marginal constituencies.

At 0.01 %, this is the fourth - lowest majority in all of post-war UK electoral history — and quite a change from the previous election in 2005 when this was the UK's 158th most marginal seat.

The Gravesham seat is a key marginal which Tory candidate Adam Holloway took from Labour in 2005 with 654 votes.

Analysis from the Bureau found that in the 20 most marginal seats in the election the Conservatives have raised # 321,182, compared to # 183,052 for the Liberal Democrats and just # 74,545 for Labour.

Such a result in these Labour / Conservative marginals would leave the Tories short of winning the 117 seats they need to take from the governing party in order to have an overall majority.

If you're lucky enough to live in a marginal seat like Taunton Deane, you will be bombarded with messages from candidates, because your vote makes an enormous difference both to who becomes your MP, and the overall balance of party seats at Westminster.

The Conservative party chairman said:» Labour should be very worried that in a week when Gordon Brown has dominated the news, the Conservatives have made a crucial gain from Labour in the north and achieved a swing in three marginal seats which would mean three strong Conservative gains in a general election.»

As we meet in the lower whips office, around the corner from the Commons chamber, I ask Barwell to provide his top tip for winning a marginal seat.

It will come from Tory MPs in marginal seats as their constituents complain that they can not secure GP or hospital appointments.

As with the ComRes marginal poll in the week the seats polled were mostly ultra-marginal seats — in this case, the 12 most marginal Con - Lab seats, the 12 most marginal Lab - Con seats, but whereas the ComRes poll was a single sample representing the most marginal 40, these were 24 individual samples, one from each seat.

6 are Conservative held seats where the Lib Dems came a close second last time and need not unduly delay us, all show a shift from Lib Dem to Conservative and Conservative holds, the most interesting ones being Watford (which was a three way marginal in 2010 and remains so in this poll) and the two Cornish seats in the sample which both put UKIP in second place, more on that later.

However, as we've seen in previous Lord Ashcroft polls of Lib Dem marginals there is an awful lot of variation between individual constituencies — some seats (Carshalton & Wallington and Thornbury & Yate) are actually showing swings from Con to LD.

As a Labour analysis shows a fall in membership in Tory associations in the most marginal parliamentary seats, De Piero is to launch a campaign to sign up supporters who are normally disengaged from politics.

In 2015, candidates in marginal seats will face this ever increasing threat from the likes of MPAC.

Curiously they did not express the same view in their press release highlighting my survey of marginal seats in March, which showed a number of potential SNP gains from the Lib Dems, or when they welcomed my «super poll» at the end of last year which gave the SNP a 6 - point lead over Labour.

In this last quarter 34 Tory associations, all in marginal seats, received funds totalling # 116m from these 2 clubs alone.

Not sure, if this is undetAnd, labour spent more than the Tories in 2005 75 % of labours spending in 1997 came from the private side, and recall 1979 when the closed shop meant everyone had to joina Union, that union had to give money to the labour party, we knew the next election would be the most vicious since 1992 ′ we win the campaign, lost the election that time, The Tory press isn't as strong as it was then, the tories haven't got lost of «extremist» stories about labour they had thrn to smear us now, They're a smaller party not just cos of Ukip, But labour has a lot of keen strong members, and it'll come doen to 70 or so marginal seats what happens, while not losing our working class votes in Newcastle, birmingham Luton Rotherham, Scotland, and if they're not abstaining, or voting Ukip, we have to ask why they're voting tory

So while Tim Farron would be delighted to receive tactical votes from Labour supporters in marginal seats, he wants nothing to do with any electoral pact or «progressive alliance» that formally associates his party with Corbyn.

We find that Conservative support is holding up better in its key marginal seats than the rest of the country, and also that the Liberal Democrats are recovering strongly, albeit from a low base, in the seats they are defending.

As I've written before when writing about constituency polls of Lib Dem seats and marginal polls of Lib Dem battlegrounds, we don't really have the evidence from past elections to judge what the most accurate methods are.

This was clear from the major study of the country's marginal seats that we conducted with YouGov before the election.

They were carefully chosen marginal seats, well away from Labour seats whose MPs might be displaced by boundary changes and the reduction in the number of seats from 650 to 600.

Over the course of the last month, the voluntary party's tour of marginal seats has clocked up campaign visits to no fewer than 72 constituencies across England, from St Ives in the South West to Tynemouth in the North East.

If the latest polling from Lord Ashcroft is sustained Labour will do rather better in the marginal seats that their share of the vote nationally would suggest thus making an outcome where they get fewer votes but more seats a greater probability.