Sentences with phrase «marginal seats if»

Talking of which, do you want to do a deal for 2015 where we won't stand in your marginal seats if you don't stand in ours?»

Not exact matches

Corbyn plans to visit at least 40 marginal seats during the parliamentary recess that begins on Friday, enough to put him in Downing Street if Labour won them all.

If that wasn't enough, the last election was influenced by an individual who poured # 50,000 into marginal seats to influence the vote.

And a handful of MPs, including ministers like Norman Lamb and Jo Swinson (if she retains her marginal seat), who could emerge through the middle as the compromise candidate.

If the election is as close as many commentators anticipate, first time voters could have a significant impact, particularly in marginal seats.

If Nigel Farage wins 2,000 to 3,000 unhappy Tories in each of the key marginals, he has written, the party could lose thirty seats and install Ed Miliband in Number 10 Downing Street.

The pamphlet, by the Labour - affiliated Fabian Society and Policy Network thinktank, admits Labour has lost ground among the DE bottom social group but says it will only restore its electoral fortunes if it performs better among white - collar and skilled workers, who are strongly represented in marginal seats in the South and Midlands.

My seat, Brighton Pavilion, is a hotly contested three way marginal which we must win if we are to have a good working majority after the election.

Clearly even if the Lib Dem vote is holding up better in the Lib Dem Tory marginals — that doesn» mean the Lib Dems would win these seats were a general election held tomorrow.

We'll also see if the Tories manage to take Labour's most marginal seat, City of Chester, where the majority is just 93.

This seems to be on the back of opinion polls which may not have changed if you allow for their inbuilt margin of error and which certainly ignore the fact that Northern marginal seats are running ahead of the national figures.

Senior Labour backbencher and former minister Frank Field said: «If last night's vote heralds the start of Ukip's serious assault into Labour's neglected core vote, all bets are off for safer, let alone marginal seats at the next election.»

It would be very sad if the two right - of - centre Eurosceptic parties at the general election were not able to find some way, at least in marginal seats, of reaching an accommodation so that anti-referendum candidates don't get in with a minority of votes.

If you're lucky enough to live in a marginal seat like Taunton Deane, you will be bombarded with messages from candidates, because your vote makes an enormous difference both to who becomes your MP, and the overall balance of party seats at Westminster.

In a close election that could still be the difference between a majority and a hung Parliament, so don't underestimate its potential importance, but it would be a remarkable election if the swing in marginal seats really was 4 or 5 points bigger or smaller than the national picture.

Channel 4 News spoke to former MPs who lost their marginal seats in May and to candidates who lost, despite standing in seats where there had been a sitting Labour MP.They all aspire to win back the seats Labour will need to secure if the party is to return to government.

Fair enough if you include other seats in the West Midlands - but then of course the same can be said about Lancashire where there's a whole swathe of marginal seats.

If they behave differently to the national polls, and if different groups of marginal seats behave differently to one another, it's obviously a very big deaIf they behave differently to the national polls, and if different groups of marginal seats behave differently to one another, it's obviously a very big deaif different groups of marginal seats behave differently to one another, it's obviously a very big deal.

Regular readers will recall that before the election it looked as if the boundary reviews would have favoured the Tories more — I suspect this change is largely because the 2017 election happened to produce a lot of very marginal seats, and that small boundary changes have flipped some of these in Labour's favour.

Polling by Populus (for Lord Ashcroft) has, however, suggested that LibDem MPs could face wipeout in Tory / LD marginals if they don't have a non-aggression pact with the Conservatives in these seats.

I'll put up full notional results later on today, but looking at England and Wales as a whole, it looks as if the Conservatives would lose 10 seats, Labour would lose 28 seats, the Liberal Democrats would lose 4 and the Greens would lose one (by my calculations the new Brighton North would be a close three - way marginal, with the Conservatives narrowly ahead of Labour).

«If we apply this swing to each Labour marginal, the Tories would win 52 out of the 60 seats.

The Labour education minister reviewing the decision went out of his way to visit and listen to my angry constituents, but he didn't overrule a decision which was obviously right even if politically painful for me and my marginal seat.

These two won't win any seats under first past the post but could take sufficient votes to keep Labour in if in a Marginal, remember Crawley and Harlow to name but two in 2005 where Labour held on by their fingernails and the UKIP vote was far higher than their majority.

Even if AV creates 80 more marginal seats (doubtful), most of those seats will still return the same MPs they would have returned under FPTP.

If they didn't then the parties would spend their money and effort in all seats relatively equally rather than in the marginals.

Not sure, if this is undetAnd, labour spent more than the Tories in 2005 75 % of labours spending in 1997 came from the private side, and recall 1979 when the closed shop meant everyone had to joina Union, that union had to give money to the labour party, we knew the next election would be the most vicious since 1992 ′ we win the campaign, lost the election that time, The Tory press isn't as strong as it was then, the tories haven't got lost of «extremist» stories about labour they had thrn to smear us now, They're a smaller party not just cos of Ukip, But labour has a lot of keen strong members, and it'll come doen to 70 or so marginal seats what happens, while not losing our working class votes in Newcastle, birmingham Luton Rotherham, Scotland, and if they're not abstaining, or voting Ukip, we have to ask why they're voting tory

If Corbyn's young support is concentrated among ethnic minorities and the university educated, that will only help him in certain marginals - most seats with lots of ethnic minorities, university students or metropolitan young professionals are already safely Labour.

If history is any guide we might expect the Conservatives to do a little better as most of the battleground seats have new Conservative incumbents, but only by a very small amount — the reality is that Con - Lab marginals do tend to behave in pretty much the same way as the nation as a whole does.

But if the Tory lead ends up at the upper end of current polling and they hoover up the grey vote, they could take a swathe of seats on this list while struggling in some of the tighter metropolitan marginals.

If the latest polling from Lord Ashcroft is sustained Labour will do rather better in the marginal seats that their share of the vote nationally would suggest thus making an outcome where they get fewer votes but more seats a greater probability.

«What is particularly missing at this time is her coming out in public, meeting her constituents, talking to TV cameras, explaining what happened, perhaps being a little humble about all of this and giving a satisfactory explanation to her constituents and the wider Conservative family to be quite frank, because speaking to people from the West Midlands region where she is an MP, these things do have a knock - on effect and there are other marginal seats far closer to her constituency where people have got Labour majorities to overturn which may be more difficult if the local Conservative politician is seen as tainted and not having justified their actions and also I gather that Conservative Party HQ has had party donors from the region expressing concern that she hasn't satisfactorily justified what she has done.»

He said the shift involved a Tory tendency to win in marginal seats and a greater distribution of Labour voters in seats where it was pipped by third parties, adding: «It is these last two things which has turned a system that once looked as if it was to the advantage of Labour to the Tories» advantage, and there is a boundary review to come.

If there is a real story at all in the Tories» winning a marginal seat in Cheshire two years before a General Election, then it is that Cameron can win without having to please the Tory base in the least, and indeed while defining himself against it for the amusement of the BBC / Fleet Street dinner party circuit.

At the moment you're probably right that even if Con picked up every UKIP voter, it wouldn't affect the result in those most marginal seats... but it would make a difference in target seats further down the list, and consequently to Labour's majority / largest party prospects.

I don't think UKIP are going to win seats but they could split the Conservative vote if they are very strong and let Labour through in those marginal seats.

Now if that happens next May there'll be 12 months before the election and some of our colleagues in marginal seats might get a bit windy.

Thus anyone wavering will think, «It's worth voting for UKIP, they can win this time» whereas with FTTP as used for Westminster they will be lucky to hold Castle Point and in a marginal seat such as Reading West if I want to unseat Labour MP Martin Salter I will have to vote Tory as the UKIP candidate will be very lucky to make 4 figures.

One senior Tory said the party faces a «devastating pincer movement» from Ukip in a string of marginal seats where Conservatives won in 2010 with narrow majorities over Labour: «If more Tory votes are siphoned off to Ukip, and Lib Dems switch to Labour, we will be done for in those seats and our position in the north of England will be terrible.

If Space pulls this off, it's because we're heading to 230 + Democrats in the House and we've won many more marginal seats than this.

Like Derby South, this is a very marginal seat where it is very difficult to believe that the Tories would have won if they had had the competence and / or honesty to admit before the election that Midland Mainline Electrification would have to be postponed because of therrpobelms which have arisen with electrification of the Great Western line.

Frank Field: If this is «start of UKIP's... assault into Labour's neglected core vote, all bets are off for safer, let alone marginal seats»

At least in modern times (the post WW2 era), most cabinet ministers have always had safeish seats, the main reason being that you generally need to have sat for a couple of parliamentary terms to get into the cabinet and if you have a marginal seat you tend to lose it before you get to cabinet level.

My point is if Cameron is as confident as he claims that he will get an overall majority he should be spending much of his time visiting marginal Labour seats.

There are many MPs around that age in Labour inclined marginals if things get extremely bad for Labour (so starting to lose seats)

Nine times as many voters in marginal seats are likely to vote for David Cameron as vote against him if he emphasises his promise to cap immigration to about 50,000 pa.

If Osborne represented a marginal seat it would imply that he only won it in 2010 so he obviously could not be chancellor having only been an MP for less than 4 years.

More marginal seats tend to have far more pragmatic, centrist Tory MPs — whicjh makes one wonder just how even more right wing the Tories will become if they go down to a big defeat

Though they quarrel and compete with the Lib Dems, Blair and Brown need their votes not to collapse into the arms of David Cameron - «Come home to the Tories,» as he didn't say - if they are to save some of their own marginal seats next time.

The consolation for the Liberal Democrats is that relatively few people in these seats realise they are in a Lab / LD marginal — if the party can successfully position themselves as THE party to beat Labour in those seats, something they have great experience in doing, they could do far better in those seats and start gaining Labour seats to balance losses to the Tories.