Both outcomes are highly possible as are many other scenarios in between, resulting in many different possible results in
marginal seats like this.
Even northern
marginal seats like Pendle, lost last year and surrounded by other marginal seats which were also lost last year like Burnley and Colne Valley, will not be allowed to select.
Those guys could vote for Gay marriage without fear of losing in the future, as opposed to guys in more
marginal seats like Ball or Grisanti.
If you're lucky enough to live in
a marginal seat like Taunton Deane, you will be bombarded with messages from candidates, because your vote makes an enormous difference both to who becomes your MP, and the overall balance of party seats at Westminster.
Not exact matches
Persuading my editor to let me hire a vintage VW camper for a week to tour some of the most
marginal (and beautiful)
seats in the West Country seemed
like quite a coup at the time.
And a handful of MPs, including ministers
like Norman Lamb and Jo Swinson (if she retains her
marginal seat), who could emerge through the middle as the compromise candidate.
As a party leader, Nigel's job is to talk up favourable polls —
like those recently commissioned from Survation by his party treasurer, Alan Bown, which put UKIP in a strong position in various
marginal seats — or dismiss bad ones, or advise us to ignore them altogether, as circumstances dictate.
Boundaries have changed in many
seats since 2005, and the strength of the Lib Dems means some two - way
marginals now look more
like three - way
marginals: add in the rise of smaller parties such as the Greens, plus highly volatile national polls, and even hardened tactical voters may struggle to work out which horse to back locally this time.
Voters in
marginal constituencies
like Glenda Jackson's Hampstead and Kilburn know more about parties» policy positions than those in safe
seats like Gordon Brown's Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath, according to research carried out by the University of Nottingham's Caitlin Milazzo.
Democrats who represent
marginal districts,
like David Valesky, Bill Stachowski, Brian Foley, Darrel Aubertine, and Joseph Addabbo Jr. (the primary beneficiaries of gay - rights fund - raising), have tried to put off the vote out of fear it would jeopardize their
seats.
In practice of course we can't actually be that confident that voters in a tight LD - Lab
marginal will behave the same way as in a
seat where the Lib Dems have a 20 % majority, so it's a bit of a shame Ashcroft didn't include some more challenging LD - Lab fights
like Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bermondsey.
In 2015, candidates in
marginal seats will face this ever increasing threat from the
likes of MPAC.
Meanwhile, Ukip will be plotting to detonate more Clacton -
like explosions in the
marginal seats that will decide who walks up Downing Street next May.
But at the same time, Faso took a more direct shot Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, two of the state's most prominent Democrats who have vocally opposed the measure and pushed Republicans in
marginal House
seats like Faso's to vote against it.
1997 taught the Conservative Party that a fringe party
like the Referendum Party does not need to do spectacularly in order to deny us victory in crucial
marginal seats.
Like Derby South, this is a very
marginal seat where it is very difficult to believe that the Tories would have won if they had had the competence and / or honesty to admit before the election that Midland Mainline Electrification would have to be postponed because of therrpobelms which have arisen with electrification of the Great Western line.
Seats like Bishop Auckland have become
marginal for the first time largely for the same reasons.
I'd guess that it could be reduced to a
marginal but I think Labour have an upper limit here that will be short of actually taking it, but I agree that there are really no safe Tory
seats in London anymore except some of the outer ones
like Northwood / Romford etc..
I don't expect major changes in national vote share in 2020 necessarily but we could see UKIP still around 10 - 15 %, losing votes to the Tories in
marginal seats but profiting from a post referendum backlash at the Tories expense in Essex, Kent and Lincolnshire etc and old labour areas
like Sunderland, county Durham, Rotherham, Oldham etc which the Tories have abandoned.