Sentences with phrase «marginal swing seats»

Just one per cent of the electorate - less than half a million voters in marginal swing seats - determined the outcome of the last general election.

Not exact matches

He claimed 40 per cent of the vote at the 2005 election but is holding the country's most marginal seat - a 0.2 per cent swing would see it go to the Tories.

Instead of mucking in with the multifarious resistance movement - which, as you rightly state here, does not require universal agreement in order to progress, that sort of Leninist thinking is weedkiller to the grassroots - Labour is already positioning itself for the next election, terrified of doing anything at all which might upset the few swing voters in key marginal seats that the party has repositioned itself towards over the past twenty years.

This would have the added benefit of lessening the importance of the million voters in marginal, Middle England seats, whose power to swing elections has led Labour to pander excessively to their centre - right views.

The 1990s electoral tactic of announcing drastic future expenditure targets and forcing Labour to accept or reject them is designed for an electoral battleground for the swing voters in the marginal seats in contention between Labour and the Conservatives, almost all of which are in England.

Stroud has been relative to others a very marginal seat since 1992 as well as a swing seat as its winner's majority has not exceeded 9.1 % of the vote since the 19.2 % majority won in that year.

She won a 22.6 % swing, but the seat will be marginal next time it comes up for election in 2015.

Taken together, groups of Conservative - Labour marginals in my research have shown swings to Labour at a similar level to those in the national polls, but there are wide variations between seats with similar majorities: in the first round, published in May, I found swings to Labour of 8 % in Amber Valley and just 2 % in Morecambe & Lunesdale.

How can it be right that the electoral battleground is fought in 100 key marginal seats which swing at each election and decide the colour of the government?

Firstly, in Conservative - vs - Labour marginals the Conservative vote is largely unchanged from the general election, but the Liberal Democrat vote has dropped to the benefit of Labour, this means on a uniform swing Labour would gain about 28 seats from the Conservatives (though these would be seats that the Conservatives gained at the last election, so in practice the Tories would be helped by the incumbency bonus of the new MPs).

jsfl, In order to calculate the swing from 2005 in these marginal seats, we need to have the party shares that occurred in these constituencies — not the national shares.Given that Anthony is quoting a 29 % Con lead over Labour and a swing of approximately 11 % from Lab to Con since 2005, the implication is that in 2005 the Tories enjoyed a 7 % lead over Labour in these paricular seats!

He has produced a table listing 32 marginal seats that the Tories ought to be targeting at the next election (defined as requiring a 5 % or under swing from red or yellow to blue).

It is difficult to prove that the battlebus campaign was the factor that swung the last election in the Conservatives» favour, although it was specifically targeting marginal and swing seats, and clearly the Tories saw it as a key campaigning tool.

The way our elections work encourages parties to ignore the views of the majority of the British public to focus on the handful of swing voters in marginal seats.

The Conservative party chairman said:» Labour should be very worried that in a week when Gordon Brown has dominated the news, the Conservatives have made a crucial gain from Labour in the north and achieved a swing in three marginal seats which would mean three strong Conservative gains in a general election.»

April's Lord Aschroft poll of marginal Scottish seats saw a 26.5 % swing towards the SNP against the Scottish Labour leader, with the Scottish Nationalists now nine points clear in East Renfrewshire.

And where we did achieve swings against the Tories, these were in safe Labour seats, rather than in the target marginals, in which we worked so hard.»

His previous polling of Lib - v - Lab seats was a little disappointing — he polled the four most marginal LD - v - Lab seats, all of which fell to Labour easily on huge swings.

The average position in the national polls when this fieldwork was being done (10th September — 3rd October) was a 3.6 % Labour lead, so once again the difference between the swing in the marginal seats and the swing in the national polls is tiny.

It's not a very exciting finding — swing in Conservative marginals not vastly different to other seats — but it's one that gives me some confidence in the poll.

In 2001 the average swing in all English seats was 1.6 %, the average swing in Lab - v - Con seats was also 1.6 %, the average swing in marginal Lab - v - Con seats was -0.5 % (that is, overall there was a small swing to the Conservatives, but on average there was a tiny swing to Labour in the Lab - v - Con marginals).

You can see that marginals do behave a little differently sometimes — the Conservatives managed a better swing in their target Labour marginals in 2010, Labour did better in those seats where they had fresh incumbency in 2001 — but the differences aren't huge.

However, as we've seen in previous Lord Ashcroft polls of Lib Dem marginals there is an awful lot of variation between individual constituencies — some seats (Carshalton & Wallington and Thornbury & Yate) are actually showing swings from Con to LD.

In a close election that could still be the difference between a majority and a hung Parliament, so don't underestimate its potential importance, but it would be a remarkable election if the swing in marginal seats really was 4 or 5 points bigger or smaller than the national picture.

Yet in vital marginal seats in England, Labour's swing barely registered.

«This is the most marginal seat in the country - it needs just a 0.2 per cent swing to go to the Conservatives.

«If we apply this swing to each Labour marginal, the Tories would win 52 out of the 60 seats.

The Liberal Party appeared to shift campaign resources into defending its safer seats, Labor achieving substantial swings to win the marginal seats of Kingston, Makin and Wakefield, but failing to dislodge the Liberal Party in Boothby and Sturt.

This is a swing of 6 points (the equivalent of a Labour lead of about 5 points in a national poll), so suggests Labour may be doing somewhat better in key marginal seats than in the country as a whole.

The Tories may lose fewer close marginal seats to Labour than might be expected given even a regional swing.

In some previous elections the swing in close marginals (particularly marginals gained at the previous election and where the new incumbent is standing again) has been a lot less than in most other types of seats.

Voting intention Our poll shows in these marginals the Tories are ahead of Labour by 43 per cent to 36 per cent - that's a mirror image of Labour's victories in these seats and a YouGov analysis suggests it amounts to a 9 per cent swing to the Tories from Labour and a Conservative government with an overall majority of 60 - 70 seats.

However, it will be won or lost in the 117 marginal seats we need to win in order to gain an overall majority; and it will be won or lost on the decisions of swing voters in those constituencies.

As it happens the Conservative - Labour swing in marginals was much the same as it was in safe seats in 2005, but the changes in the parties votes was different — both the Conservatives and Labour did better in their key marginals than elsewhere, it's just their mutual improved performances cancelled each other out!

FPTP is meant to function so that there are two sets of safe seats for each of the main parties — and as the pendulum swings from one party to another, the marginal seats switch from one party to another.

It makes Cheltenham the tenth most marginal seat in the country, requiring a 0.55 % swing to take the seat.

In addition, there is new ICM poll of 96 Labour marginals in which the Conservatives need a swing of between 4 per cent and 10 per cent to take the seat.

Either Mr Pickles or Lord Forsyth could get the Tories a landslide - we are doing well despite Mrs Spelman not because of her or because of Mr Letwin's confused platitudes that appeal to The Guardian editorial more than swing voters in marginal seats.

The respected psephologist John Curtice has calculated that the Tories could gain 71 seats from Labour without winning a higher share of the vote than in 2001, simply by a swing to the Lib Dems splitting the progressive vote in our marginals.

It's the SNP / Lab gap that remains static and the swing from Conservative is now so significant that of their 13 seats they are now projected to lose 5 and by a substantial margin in the most marginal of Stirling.

On a more simple measure of affordability, the median house price of the marginal Liberal seat held by Malcolm Turnbull — which needs a swing of 3.9 per cent to change hands — is a staggering $ 1.65 million.