With
marginal voters in marginal seats, the margins matter.
Not exact matches
It clearly shows that
in these
marginal seats, the key battleground
seats where the general election will be won and lost,
voters are very concerned about threats to religious liberty and free speech.
Just one per cent of the electorate - less than half a million
voters in marginal swing
seats - determined the outcome of the last general election.
Instead of mucking
in with the multifarious resistance movement - which, as you rightly state here, does not require universal agreement
in order to progress, that sort of Leninist thinking is weedkiller to the grassroots - Labour is already positioning itself for the next election, terrified of doing anything at all which might upset the few swing
voters in key
marginal seats that the party has repositioned itself towards over the past twenty years.
The
voters in marginal seats receive, no doubt to their delight, a great deal more attention from the parties than anyone else.
My research
in 2014 has included a weekly national telephone poll, surveys
in over 100
marginal seats, two rounds of my Project Blueprint research on the quest for a Conservative majority, a detailed study of
voters» attitudes to Europe, polling - day surveys of
voters in the European elections, five by - election polls, and regular updates on the state of the parties.
This would have the added benefit of lessening the importance of the million
voters in marginal, Middle England
seats, whose power to swing elections has led Labour to pander excessively to their centre - right views.
Below is the text of my presentation at the Conservative Party Conference this afternoon setting out my latest research
in marginal seats and the Tories» challenge
in building an election - winning coalition of
voters.
If the election is as close as many commentators anticipate, first time
voters could have a significant impact, particularly
in marginal seats.
The 1990s electoral tactic of announcing drastic future expenditure targets and forcing Labour to accept or reject them is designed for an electoral battleground for the swing
voters in the
marginal seats in contention between Labour and the Conservatives, almost all of which are
in England.
Our research showed that, by 64 per cent to 22 per cent, C1
voters in marginal seats believe that the welfare state is too generous.
Analysis of my polling
in the forty most
marginal Conservative - held
seats showed that Tory «defectors» and UKIP
voters are not the same people.
Harman still pops up from time to time
in her pink bus, dropping
in on
marginal seats to talk to women
voters.
Britain's current electoral system means
voters in marginal seats are the ones which decide the election.
The leadership's strategy is to register and canvas more
voters in target
seats, banking on increased turnout to flip new
marginals that were long thought to be beyond Corbyn's reach.
Just 0.0016 % of
voters choosing differently would have given the Conservatives a majority, while the election saw a rise
in very
marginal seats: eleven were won by fewer than 100 votes.
There are heartland and liberal
voters in every
marginal seat: it will take a positive agenda to secure them.
Boundaries have changed
in many
seats since 2005, and the strength of the Lib Dems means some two - way
marginals now look more like three - way
marginals: add
in the rise of smaller parties such as the Greens, plus highly volatile national polls, and even hardened tactical
voters may struggle to work out which horse to back locally this time.
Political parties,
in league with tech firms, target
voters in a few
marginal seats to sway national results.
Voters in marginal constituencies like Glenda Jackson's Hampstead and Kilburn know more about parties» policy positions than those
in safe
seats like Gordon Brown's Kirkaldy and Cowdenbeath, according to research carried out by the University of Nottingham's Caitlin Milazzo.
The first was detailed information about every potential Conservative
voter in each of the
marginal seats.
But
in 2014, as a failed parliamentary candidate desperate to get back into the party's good graces, he launched a grassroots volunteer scheme that sent party members into
marginal seats to distribute leaflets, knock on doors, and work the
voters.
For instance, knowing that
in my local constituency, we have roughly 2.89 x more power than the average UK
voter due to it being a
marginal seat, could help encourage people to go out and vote knowing they actually could make a difference.
There are «heartland» and liberal
voters in every
marginal seat.
That was before Lord Ashcroft had published his survey of 19,000
voters in marginal seats.
The way our elections work encourages parties to ignore the views of the majority of the British public to focus on the handful of swing
voters in marginal seats.
The Tories may do well
in the south of England, where they're fighting
marginal seats against the Liberal Democrats — fleeing Lib Dem
voters will go to Labour, which should translate into safer Tory
seats — but it's
in the north of England and the East Midlands where there are many Conservative MPs hanging onto their
seats against Labour challengers.
In fact a whopping 22 % of Labour voters in those marginal seats said they were willing to vote for the Lib Dems to keep David Cameron out of No 1
In fact a whopping 22 % of Labour
voters in those marginal seats said they were willing to vote for the Lib Dems to keep David Cameron out of No 1
in those
marginal seats said they were willing to vote for the Lib Dems to keep David Cameron out of No 10.
It will legitimise them because
in marginal seats Labour will have to chase the second preferences of UKIP / BNP
voters.
In practice of course we can't actually be that confident that voters in a tight LD - Lab marginal will behave the same way as in a seat where the Lib Dems have a 20 % majority, so it's a bit of a shame Ashcroft didn't include some more challenging LD - Lab fights like Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bermondse
In practice of course we can't actually be that confident that
voters in a tight LD - Lab marginal will behave the same way as in a seat where the Lib Dems have a 20 % majority, so it's a bit of a shame Ashcroft didn't include some more challenging LD - Lab fights like Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bermondse
in a tight LD - Lab
marginal will behave the same way as
in a seat where the Lib Dems have a 20 % majority, so it's a bit of a shame Ashcroft didn't include some more challenging LD - Lab fights like Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bermondse
in a
seat where the Lib Dems have a 20 % majority, so it's a bit of a shame Ashcroft didn't include some more challenging LD - Lab fights like Cambridge, Hornsey & Wood Green or Bermondsey.
But fear of local
voters counted as much yesterday evening as fear of local activists - at least for MPs
in marginal seats,
But on election day, it will still let the Tories target
marginal voters in must - win
seats more precisely than ever before.»
«Or will Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green and all progressive
voters come together
in the
marginal seats that matter to elect a parliament for progress and reform and a Labour - led government with Ed Miliband as prime minister?
As
in other
marginal seats, a small majority of
voters said they were optimistic about the economy over the next year, though slightly more so for themselves than for the country as a whole.
I will also show some new analysis of my recent polling
in marginal seats, which should help us understand the
voters who supported us
in 2010 but are currently reluctant to do so next time.
In the 2017 general election campaign, he was secretly recorded suggesting that Lib Dem voters should consider backing Labour's Rupa Huq in her then marginal seat of Ealing Central and Acto
In the 2017 general election campaign, he was secretly recorded suggesting that Lib Dem
voters should consider backing Labour's Rupa Huq
in her then marginal seat of Ealing Central and Acto
in her then
marginal seat of Ealing Central and Acton.
Corbyn will spend five days
in Scotland, and aims to speak to thousands of
voters in marginal seats.
Despite losing the
seat by just 103 votes at last year's general election and although the Tories are allegedly holding back their campaign at David Cameron's request, Nick Clegg's party trails by 17 points
in two separate surveys of
voters in the key
marginal.
It's certainly true, as I observed earlier, that BME
voters are concentrated
in such
seats but there are significant — and increasing — BME communities
in many
marginal seats (including one very important south London
marginal!)
In the key
marginal seats, every leaflet posted through every door and every phone call to every floating
voter could make a difference.
He said the shift involved a Tory tendency to win
in marginal seats and a greater distribution of Labour
voters in seats where it was pipped by third parties, adding: «It is these last two things which has turned a system that once looked as if it was to the advantage of Labour to the Tories» advantage, and there is a boundary review to come.
At the moment you're probably right that even if Con picked up every UKIP
voter, it wouldn't affect the result
in those most
marginal seats... but it would make a difference
in target
seats further down the list, and consequently to Labour's majority / largest party prospects.
And that it therefore represents a toughening of the Tory position to reflect the views of
voters in marginal seats, not least
in the midlands and north.
This would have broken the stranglehold of floating
voters in Middle England
marginals over the political centre of gravity, and would have rewarded Labour for mobilising support
in its working - class heartland
seats.
However, it will be won or lost
in the 117
marginal seats we need to win
in order to gain an overall majority; and it will be won or lost on the decisions of swing
voters in those constituencies.
The potential power of a
voter in a
marginal seat is thus much greater than that of a safe
seat.
A third of
voters in 40
marginal seats would consider voting for Ukip at the next general election but over half said they would next cast their ballot for the eurosceptic party, a new ComRes poll for ITV News suggests.
Whereas
in marginal seats with two or three parties very close to each other, the behaviour of small numbers of
voters could change the result and so every vote counts.
As the loss of safe
seats is rare, parties target resources on a small number of floating
voters in marginal seats.
Either Mr Pickles or Lord Forsyth could get the Tories a landslide - we are doing well despite Mrs Spelman not because of her or because of Mr Letwin's confused platitudes that appeal to The Guardian editorial more than swing
voters in marginal seats.