GaveKal Research recently published a piece that was highly critical of the idea that profit
margins revert to the mean over time.
Not exact matches
First, profit
margins in the U.S. seem
to have stopped
mean reverting in the old, normal way, and second, some real estate markets have bubbled up and then stayed there at high prices.
I think Michael Dell is an incredible entrepreneur, and the business model he developed for Dell Computer allowed him
to reap incredible rewards from an industry with commodity characteristics,
mean -
reverting profit
margins, and low barriers
to entry.
Profit
margins may
mean -
revert eventually, but it might be a while for that
to happen, given the global pressures that are keeping wage rates low.
Profit
margins will
mean revert when, labor begins
to be scarce again.
My view is that profit
margins will not
revert to mean for many years, until the increase in capitalist labor is absorbed.
Earnings yields are still high relative
to Treasuries, though if profit
margins mean -
revert, this argument is hooey.
Some are taking current revenue and then assigning a
mean reverted profit
margin to come up with what earnings should be, then assigning some mid point multiple that doesn't take historically low interest rates into consideration.
High
margin, high growth companies usually
mean revert due
to: (1) new entrants and future competition; (2) new, disruptive business models; and / or (3) new technologies that make a company's product obsolete.
I think Michael Dell is an incredible entrepreneur, and the business model he developed for Dell Computer allowed him
to reap incredible rewards from an industry with commodity characteristics,
mean -
reverting profit
margins, and low barriers
to entry.