Also relative to U.S. stocks, their outlook argues that Japanese, European and emerging
market equities remain attractively priced.
Not exact matches
And I fully recognize that we could be experiencing a repeat of the 2003 - 2007 period when
equity markets were generally positive, but global excesses largely
remained.
While fiscal and external shocks
remain, US
equities have become more closely aligned with corporate credit
markets in the short term.
But despite the
equity marathon, the strategist
remains bullish, arguing that the
markets have a good handle on what to expect from the Federal Reserve going forward.
«China, the recent growth engine for demand,
remains underpenetrated, and should
remain accretive, and the North American consumer
remains healthy thanks to the wealth effect (
equity markets and home prices
remain elevated supporting consumer willingness to spend),» she said in an email to CNBC.
Perhaps reflecting the mixed signals being sent by an economy where
equity markets are hot but other economic activity
remains tepid, 30 % of respondents to a recent COMPAS poll say additional stimulus spending should «probably not» be made.
The bank views corporate profits as the key driver of
equity markets, and expects these to
remain strong throughout the year.
The mere fact that Japan was now acting to reflate its economy meant that the sell yen, buy Japanese
equities trade that has dominated
markets in recent weeks
remained intact, said ING's Condon.
If one were optimistic about
equities as a long - term investment four months ago, there are as many reasons to
remain so, now that
markets are at 10 - month lows.
Bitcoin trading, and the capital allocated to it,
remains a very small part of the multi-trillion dollar
equity markets.
And now that the time for revisionist history has arrived, and strategists no longer have to serve a political agenda and scare investors and traders into voting with their wallets, the research reports calling for precisely the outcome that we expected are coming in fast and furious, starting with none other than Goldman, whose chief strategist David Kostin issued a note overnight in which he says that «the
equity market response to the election result will be limited» and adds that «our year - end 2016 price target for the S&P 500
remains 2100, roughly 2 % below the current level of 2140.»
Though U.S.
equities remained resilient, other
markets came under pressure.
Another third should be in international stocks (mature foreign
markets like Japan and Europe), with the
remaining third of your
equity portion in emerging
markets and what he calls global small caps.
It is important to remember that the macro environment
remains solid, and the
market volatility is so far largely contained to
equities.
We believe
equity market volatility is likely to
remain elevated relative to recent years.
Against this environment, our strategists
remain bullish on
equities and continue to favor emerging
market currencies and, in the fixed income space, prefer local
markets over external debt and maintain their higher - yielding yet better - quality bias.
Until then, global
equity markets will
remain nervous.
However, if real rates
remain low, gold will continue to attract attention as a potential store of value which may offer a ballast to
equity market volatility.
In particular, I think Japanese small - caps have
remained the outstanding anomaly in global
equity markets.
Although
equity indexes for the United States and other major developed
markets reached loftier levels in 2017, conditions have
remained fairly supportive for global stocks.
If the
market falls by 20 %, the value of the
equity holdings will be reduced to $ 180,000 ($ 225,000 * 0.8), while the worth of the fixed income holdings
remain at $ 75,000 to produce a total portfolio value of $ 255,000.
We believe valuations of select emerging - country
equity and sovereign bond investments
remain attractive relative to those available in developed
markets.
To the extent that the data
remain disconnected,
equity market volatility and intermittent sell - offs
remain very real possibilities.
Gold easily outperformed the broad US
equity market over that time period, despite the fact the US
market has charged higher in recent years, while gold has
remained well below its 2011 highs of $ 1,920 / oz.
Global monetary policy
remains broadly accommodative — and in some areas more and more so — propelling
equity markets ever higher and leaving a record amount of sovereign debt around the world (almost US$ 12 trillion by midyear) yielding at or below zero (source: Fitch Ratings, as of 6/29/2016).
Only
equity market investors are convinced that volatility will
remain low in the near term.
While the VIX and other measures of
equity market volatility are flirting with historic lows, volatility in other asset classes
remains elevated relative to the summer levels.
The strong
equity gains of early 2017 petered out over the summer, in spite of buoyant earnings, reflecting the
market's belief that
remaining upside in equites
remains limited, especially in the absence of meaningful tax stimulus in the US.
I think that will be a key point for
equity markets going into 2017, and while we
remain constructive on the US
market, we believe there's also an opportunity to pass the baton from the US
equity market in terms of global
market leadership.
Despite their outperformance year to date, EM
equities remain attractively valued compared to their historical valuations and to the valuations of their developed
market counterparts.
It
remains to be seen what gets accomplished and how this affects
equity and bond
markets.
Even more importantly, when credit
markets are struggling,
equity markets rarely
remain immune.
There have also been strong gains in
equity markets during 2004 and total credit growth still
remains relatively strong.
The VIX, a measure of the expected
equity -
market volatility as determined by put and call prices on S&P 500 Index options, trailed lower in 2017 and
remains well below its historical average.
«An illiquid trading environment has exacerbated price declines that first began in June on profit taking and then continued through July as
equity markets remained volatile on a host of concerns from geopolitics to earnings to the economy,» said investment strategist for LPL Financial, Anthony Valeri.
Major
equity markets in the Asia Pacific
remain flat, as a set of fresh economic data suggested...
Even more disconcerting is the fact that the relative strength of the XHB has
remained below its falling 200 - day moving average in spite of the broader
equity market recovery and the fact that the Fed has backed off its hawkish interest rate stance — two things that would normally translate into higher confidence for homebuilders.
Notice that the
remaining 62 % of
market history not captured in this graph contains not only the entire net gain of the
equity market over history, but also contains an additional 25-fold advance required to erase the cumulative 96 %
market loss that investors would have sustained by ignoring these conditions.
Following the announcement of new US sanctions on Russia, the Russian
equity market and the ruble have been volatile, and the environment
remains fluid and uncertain.
Despite the recent fluctuations and concern about major corrections in global
equity markets, Craig Erlam, senior
market analyst at Oanda, says fundamentals, like corporate earnings,
remain positive.
The gains over the last six years have been much more impressive in the U.S. and, as a result, valuations of many foreign
equity markets remain more attractive than the stretched valuations in the U.S., in our opinion.
While the vast majority of institutions have diversified into hedge funds, private
equity, and real estate, Tampa
remains all in on public
markets.
That said, John's comment is worth reading in its entirety, if only to realize that volatility
remains an inherent part of
equity markets.
While downside risks to these forecasts
remain, recent data in the United States have been slightly more encouraging and, in response,
equity markets and bond yields have recorded solid increases (see the chapter on «International and Foreign Exchange Markets&r
markets and bond yields have recorded solid increases (see the chapter on «International and Foreign Exchange
Markets&r
Markets»).
For now, broad
market perceptions are that we
remain in the ascent phase in the current
equity market cycle.
However, the
equity market results have failed to respond to the robust numbers as the SPOOS have gained a mere 1.25 % and
remain unchanged on the year.
Among the explanations that have been put forward are the increased credibility of central banks in controlling inflation (inflation rates
remain below 3 per cent across the developed world), the low level of official interest rates in the major economies reflecting low inflation and the continuing weakness in some economies, a glut of savings on world
markets particularly sourced from the Asian region, and changes to pension fund rules in some countries which are seen as biasing investments away from
equities towards bonds.
For now, longer term
equity market trend
remains positive.
HOOPP was an initial private
equity investor at Teranet's founding,
remained the largest shareholder when the company was taken public on the TSX, and eventually sold its stake into a $ 2.0 billion take - over bid in 2008; Ducati Motorcycle Company, initially an NYSE / Milan listed Italian sport motorcycle manufacturer, which was the subject of a deleveraging capital increase, taken private and eventually sold to Volkswagen / Audi Group in 2012 for US$ 1.1 billion; and Novadaq Technologies Inc., a medical devices company in which HOOPP was the largest private investor, with such company completing an initial public offering on the TSX in 2005 and which continues today with a
market capitalization in excess of $ 730 million.
Volatility clustered in February this year after a protracted calm in 2017, roiling global
equities, currencies, bonds and commodity
markets and this led it to
remain elevated through the end of March.