AUM trends, or the stability of Argo Real Estate Opportunities Fund (AREO: LN), might present risk (s) to this valuation, but one could also speculate on a higher valuation based on share buybacks, rising AUM & margins, and a higher
market valuation multiple.
So we took a look at our data on private
market valuation multiples to see how publicly - traded cloud storage and file - sharing company Box compares to still - private Dropbox.
Not exact matches
But as BMO Capital
Markets analyst Tim Casey recently pointed out, the industry still appears to be on death row because of the «gradual but unrelenting erosion of revenues, operating margins and
valuation multiples.»
In other words, Tencent Music's apparent
valuation is already several
multiples of the whole Chinese music
market.
Assuming Box's
multiple doesn't expand, Dropbox would need to grow its annual sales to ~ $ 1.4 B (or 226 % growth from 2014 revenue of $ 400M) just to justify its private
market valuation of $ 10B.
The more corporate earnings grow, the higher the stock
market if
valuation multiples stay the same.
While it's true that the
market established even deeper
valuation troughs in 1974 and 1982 (near 7 times prior peak earnings, compared with the current
multiple of about 11), it is important to remember that long - term Treasury yields were 8 % in 1974, and 14 % in 1982, compared with about 4 % at present.
While the overall equity -
market volatility could impact sentiment and the
valuations that investors are willing to pay, our small - and mid-cap forecasts already assume that
multiples will revert to less than the historic median — so our outlook already is fairly conservative.
It doesn't matter whether one looks at basic measures such as median
valuation multiples over the past (bull
market) decade, or whether one uses a more complex discounted cash flow model.
Though it's impossible to say where the
multiple will be at any given time —
valuations are more volatile than trend earnings — 16.5 is an ordinary
market multiple (i.e. roughly fair value for the S&P 500).
As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings
multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for
market losses, particularly given that the current bull
market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher
valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other
market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.
«The later stages of the 2009 — 2017 bull
market are a
valuation illusion built on share buyback alchemy... The technique optically reduces the price - to - earnings
multiple because the denominator doesn't adjust for the reduced share count... Share buybacks are a major contributor to the low volatility regime because a large price insensitive buyer is always ready to purchase the
market on weakness... Share buybacks result in a lower volatility, lower liquidity, which in turn incentivizes more share buybacks, further incentivizing passive and systematic strategies that are short volatility in all their forms... Like a snake eating its own tail, the
market can not rely on share buybacks indefinitely to nourish the illusion of growth.
Finally, looking at
valuation, European banks traded at a material discount to tangible book value, one standard deviation3 below their historic forward price - earnings
multiple, and near a 20 - year low relative to global banking peers as the year came to a close.4 We are also finding select financial sector values in Asia, in both mature, under - earning banking
markets like South Korea and Singapore, as well as underpenetrated, growth - oriented
markets like China (particularly in insurance) and India (particularly in banking).
Investors looking for better opportunities with less stretched
valuations should reconsider international
markets, particularly Japan, where
multiples can still provide a lift for stocks.
On
valuations, it is important to note that the
market entered February with
multiples at multi-year highs.
The P / E ratio is a
valuation multiple defined as
market price per share divided by annual earnings per share (EPS).
When you're in this type of
market, I think the best investing style is buying stuff with a few catalysts, that are dirt dirt cheap (cause then you can still get legit
valuation multiple expansion), and have slightly lower
market exposure.
As a side note, we're quite aware of the seemingly «reasonable»
valuation of the
market, on the basis of the forward operating earnings estimates of Wall Street analysts, at least on the basis of simplistic «price / forward earnings»
multiples.
As John Hussman noted in Inflation, Correlation, and
Market Valuation, low inflation may often coincide with high
multiples, but they don't justify them.
During multi-year periods when
valuation multiples expand, we may struggle to keep pace with the
market.
During multi-year periods when
valuation multiples expand and growth stocks are in favor, it seems clear that we will struggle to keep pace with the
market.
Should we fear the lofty
valuation multiples, or should we fear the CAPE ratio itself, because of its notorious unreliability in picking
market peaks and troughs?
The price - to - earnings ratio, or P / E ratio, is an equity
valuation multiple defined as
market price per share divided by annual earnings per share.
The proposal, led by a mutual fund with investments in Oracle, points out that
multiple studies show that board and managerial diversity are linked to better corporate performance and higher stock
market valuations.
The speculative component rose above 100 percent during the 2008 - 2009 bear
market, when the drop in
valuation multiples made up the entire loss in share value, on average.
Now consider the growth stock: It actually ends up delivering a consistent 15 % annual gain in revenue & earnings — based on that performance, your fair value estimate rises accordingly & we can be pretty confident the
market's happy to maintain or increase its
valuation multiple.
Even if they did, and you value the company at an appropriate P / E and / or P / S
multiple based on those metrics, I'd be hard pressed to come up with a
valuation much higher than today's
market price.
By simply valuing the profits of a Darwin's Darling at their own
market multiple, these buyers delivered a
valuation to selling shareholders that far exceeded any share price the company might have independently achieved.
Unlike my individual company stock picks, I obviously have no specific Fair Value Price Target — I'm relying on my bullish oil / commodity view, continued Russian growth (and financial strength), and an improvement in
market sentiment and
valuation multiples.
And if such a new paradigm turns out to be (even half - way) correct, America's effective high yield status in the developed world could have even more bullish implications elsewhere — I mean, what's the appropriate discount & ultimate
valuation multiple for
markets like Europe (or Japan, or the UK, etc. etc.), when their risk - free rates are close to zero (or even negative) the whole way out the curve?!
Relative
valuations (vs. a sector or the general
market) might be relied upon either, based on some of the same ratios or EBITDA
multiples, for example.
Again, I'll highlight this Barrons piece on YouTube — the numbers are really astonishing — but looking at some of the
valuations already out there in the
market, I can't necessarily disagree YouTube (plus Google Cloud, and possibly other units too) would likely get valued at significantly higher sales
multiples than Alphabet currently commands.
Alas, the obvious challenge for all of us is: i) how to (reliably) find those long - term high - quality / high - growth companies, and ii) then overcome your natural aversion to a
valuation that's a large premium or even a
multiple of the
market average...
[NB: Noting
market valuations (and M&A
multiples) over the years, my rule of thumb is a 10 - 12.5 % operating margin deserves a 1.0 P / S, on average.
Given the company's diverse business lines, projected better environment for financials over the next twelve months and low
valuations the
market multiple could easily improve to a conservative 12 times forward earnings.
Valuation using multiples is a process involving the identification of comparable assets and obtaining market values for these assets; converting the market values into standardized values relative to a key statistic; and applying the valuation multiple to the key statistic of the asset bein
Valuation using
multiples is a process involving the identification of comparable assets and obtaining
market values for these assets; converting the
market values into standardized values relative to a key statistic; and applying the
valuation multiple to the key statistic of the asset bein
valuation multiple to the key statistic of the asset being valued.
1343 Cryptos, Half A Trillion Dollars Data from Coinmarketcap, which currently tracks Bitcoin and 1342 altcoins in circulation, shows the leap forward in
market valuation as
multiple cryptocurrencies continue to reach new highs of their own.
The quality of management teams in the REIT space varies widely, and the range of
valuation multiples that the
market ascribes to portfolios of similar assets suggests that there is the potential to create shareholder value by transferring assets from the underperforming REITs to the more capable management teams.
Buyside provides sellers with a lead - gen
marketing suite that includes customized landing pages with
multiple property
valuations, guiding potential home sellers to inquire about receiving a professional
valuation and advice.
The company's core products includes Home
Valuation landing pages, which combines
multiple automated home
valuations with visualizations of real - time buyer intent, its Buyer MatchTM dashboard, which intelligently pairs homebuyers and sellers within a brokerage, and its Real - time Buyside
Market Analysis (BMA), which arms a brokerage's agents with insights on buyer demand to help them close more listing presentations.
CPD 101: Business Enterprise
Valuation CPD 102:
Valuation of Property Impairments and Contamination CPD 103: Agricultural
Valuation CPD 104: Hotel
Valuation CPD 105: Highest and Best Use Analysis CPD 106: Multi-Family Property
Valuation CPD 107: Office Property
Valuation CPD 108: Seniors Facilities
Valuation CPD 109: Lease Analysis CPD 110: Creative Critical Thinking: Advancing Appraisal to Strategic Advising CPD 111: Decision Analysis: Making Better Real Property Decisions CPD 112: Real Estate Consulting: Forecasting CPD 113: Request for Proposals (RFPs) CPD 114:
Valuation for Financial Reporting - Real Property Appraisal and IFRS CPD 115: Appraisal Review CPD 116: Land
Valuation CPD 117: Exposure &
Marketing Time:
Valuation Impacts CPD 118: Machinery and Equipment
Valuation CPD 119: Urban Infrastructure Policies CPD 120: Urban Infrastructure Applications CPD 121: Submerged Land
Valuation CPD 122: Expropriation
Valuation CPD 123: Adjustment Support in the Direct Comparison Approach CPD 124: Residential Appraisal: Challenges and Opportunities CPD 125: Green Value — Valuing Sustainable Commercial Buildings CPD 126: Getting to Green — Energy Efficient and Sustainable Housing CPD 127: More Than Just Assessment Appeals — The Business of Property Tax Consulting CPD 128: Retail Property
Valuation CPD 129: Industrial Property
Valuation CPD 130: Residential
Valuation Basics CPD 131: Commercial
Valuation Basics CPD 132: More than Just Form - Filling: Creating Professional Residential Appraisal Reports CPD 133: Valuing Residential Condominiums CPD 134: Rural and Remote Property
Valuation CPD 135: Buy Smart: Commercial Property Acquisition CPD 136: Waterfront Residential Property
Valuation (Coming soon: 2018) CPD 140: Statistics 101: Math Literacy for Real Estate Professionals CPD 141: Exploratory Data Analysis: Next Generation Appraisal Techniques CPD 142: Introduction to
Multiple Regression Analysis in Real Estate CPD 143: Appraisal
Valuation Models CPD 144: Geographic Information Systems and Real Estate CPD 145: Introduction to Reserve Fund Planning CPD 150: Real Property Law Basics CPD 151: Real Estate Finance Basics CPD 152: Financial Analysis with Excel CPD 153: Entrepreneurship and Small Business Development CPD 154: Business Strategy: Managing a Profitable Real Estate Business CPD 156: Organizing and Financing a Real Estate Business CPD 155: Succession Planning for Real Estate Professionals CPD 157: Accounting and Taxation Considerations for a Real Estate Business CPD 158:
Marketing and Technology Considerations for a Real Estate Business CPD 159: Human Resources Management Considerations in Real Estate (Coming Soon: 2018) CPD 160: Law and Ethical Considerations in Real Estate Business (Coming Soon: 2018) CPD 891: Fundamentals of Reserve Fund Planning CPD 899: Reserve Fund Planning Guided Case Study