How about BAU with carbon dioxide buildup partially
masked by aerosol - induced global dimming, building climate crisis leading to a major economic recession?
Then there is stated to be another 0.5 C warming being
masked by aerosol pollution, principally in Asia that will clear as they hopefully clean up their air.
The team found that 74 percent of the warming that occurred during 1964 to 2010 was indeed
masked by the aerosol cooling effect.
However in John's recent weekly news (28 Dec) the 3rd article (Climate change 2013: Where we are now - not what you think) contained - «The new IPCC report tells us that half of warming (57 %) that should have already occurred has been
masked by aerosols mostly emitted since the turn of the century in rapidly developing Asian nations (yes, warming would double if cooling smog pollutants were suddenly cleaned up in Asia).»
Consider that currently we are at approximately 1/2 of one doubling since pre-industrial levels now (ignoring other gases), and that delta T is 0.8 DegC, 0.6 DegC estimated still to come from the thermal lag of the oceans, and some warming having been
masked by aerosols.
Not exact matches
The amount of warming caused
by CO2 might have been
masked over the years
by accompanying
aerosol emissions.
The observed amount of warming thus far has been less than this, because part of the excess energy is stored in the oceans (amounting to ~ 0.5 °C), and the remainder (~ 1.3 °C) has been
masked by the cooling effect of anthropogenic
aerosols.
In addition to those blasts of
aerosol and the dance of the wrist, viewers will be rewarded
by looking as well for the ways in which Solomon would
mask off certain forms within the painting.
This has been partly
masked by a negative human
aerosol forcing so far, but that
masking will likely become smaller as more people will demand cleaner air.
Research
by an international team of scientists recently published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters says that the cooling effect of
aerosols is so large that it has
masked as much as half of the warming effect from greenhouse gases.
This is a peer reviewed paper
by respected scientists who are saying that
aerosol forcing means that the majority of the warming caused
by existing co2 emission has effectively been
masked thus far, and that as
aerosols remain in the atmosphere for far shorter a duration of time than co2, we will have already most likely crossed the 2 degree threshold that the G8 politicians have been discussing this week once the cooling effect of
aerosols dissipate.
Probably this effect is usually
masked by variations in anthropogenic, volcanic or biogenic
aerosols, and is revealed only in Antarctica where other signals are quiet.
There is a nice article in GRL
by Kyle Armour and Gerard Roe on the interplay of
aerosol masking and climate sensitivity.
Steve 440 says: «A recent paper
by Douglas and Christy seems to claim that either 2C02 would lead to less than 1C or if 2C02 leads to greater than 1C then some forcing other than
aerosols must be «
masking» CO2's effect....»
By comparing this with only the GHG forcing of 3 W m - 2 (90 per cent interval of 2.6 - 3.6 W m - 2), it is seen that
aerosols in ABCs have
masked 20 — 80 per cent of GHG forcing in the past century.
Aerosol emissions associated with fossil fuels are
masking approximately 1/2 of the total energy imbalance experienced
by planet earth.
The observed temperature hasn't risen that much because
aerosol cooling parameters are postulated
by climate modellers which alledgedly
mask the «real effect».
Less cooling from
aerosols means there is less
masked warming waiting in the wings for when the skies are eventually cleaned
by pollution regulation.
This is said to be,
by AGWers, because
aerosols were
masking the true trend.
Hmmm... don't suppose it occurred to anyone to check the amount of anthropogenic
aerosols that were emitted during this time frame 1940 - 1970, or the fact that
aerosols have an immediate cooling effect on troposphere temperatures that can
mask the underlying warming caused
by the CO2 emissions that also accompany the
aerosols.
This is because the net warming it reports includes the cooling effects of
aerosols which partly
masks the warming caused
by greenhouse gases.
(d) Cowtan & Way (2013); England et al. (2014); Santer et al (2014); and Rosenfeld (2014); all provide solid evidence that the current mean global temperature has been
masked by such causes as: limited data; the negative phase of the PDO cycle; volcanoes, and
aerosols, respectively.