Some may object that ice - core and sediment - core records are often «tuned» to orbital variations, i.e., the timing is adjusted to
match orbital changes.
Not exact matches
This may then lead to additional
changes, for example, the incorporation of ozone feedbacks to solar
changes, or the calculation of vegetation feedbacks to
orbital forcing — which in each case improved the
match to the observations.
They are not tuned to trends, events (such as Pinatubo), paleo - climates (6kyr BP, LGM, 8.2 kyr event, D / O events, the PETM, the Maunder Minimum or the Eocene), other forcings (solar,
orbital etc.)-- thus every
match to those climate
changes is «out of sample» in the sense you mean.
Besides demonstrating his firm grasp of the power of these various factors to
change temperatures, this remarkable
matching of theory to real - world data also tells us just how ornery the climate beast may be: the
orbital changes that paced the ice ages were incredibly small.