Not exact matches
Within their paper, the pair details their development of a new algorithm that simulates the evaporation of water at the molecular scale that
matches theoretical, numerical, and
real - world
observations.
So the jury is still out: Scientists simply don't have enough
observations of
real termites to
match them to the model.
If
real - world
observations don't
match the models forecasting catastrophic species loss, why do you nonetheless side with models anyway?
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the
real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes
match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric circulation.
Thus it is natural to look at the
real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes
match observations very well).
A simple comparison of
observations with projections based on
real world climate forcings shows a very close
match, especially if we take natural unforced variability into account as well (mainly ENSO).
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the
real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes
match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric circulation.
Instead, we have a very good idea of what GHGs do to radiation, we have a reasonable idea of what aerosols and land use changes do, and we can look for fingerprints in the
real world
observations that
match what we expect to have happened.
In our 2010 SIO estimate, it was found that the CFSv2 sea ice extent seemed too excessive (due to too thick ice in the initial condition), and the extent confined within 60 cm of ice thickness
matches the
real time
observation.
That could explain the resolute failure of
real world
observations to
match model expectations and the failure to appear of the anticipated tropospheric «hot spot» that was expected as a marker for AGW.
For me that was as powerful as Richard Feyman's statement that no matter how beautiful a theory is, if the
real world does not
match the theory, then it is the theory that must go, not the
observations.
It shows up well in their Figure 1a about which they state ``... you can see how well the POGA H global average surface temperature
matches the
observations...» It
matches well the phony eighties and nineties and would be off the mark if the
real temperatures were substituted.
Since, without free parameters, and parameterizations calibrated (or fudged, if you like) to
match observed data (such as it is), models (the principle means of attribution) are unable to replicate
real world
observations, then the statement above is obvious patent nonsense.
Firstly, on a factual matter, the OHC comparison which I published above...... was not intended to be a comparison with
real - world
observations, only a comparison with the GISS E ensemble mean result, which should correspond to the reported GISS E temperature profile which was simultaneously
matched.
But even when you compare the
observations to the model projection with the closest
matching time period, the
real warming still fell short of the projections.
So explain why the only experiment that matters (
real world
observation) doesn't
match up to the computer climate models (and never has).
I was under the impression (from a quick read of the paper) that the paper showed that IPCC models and
real satelite
observations don't
match because IPCC models are wrong.
My «Word
matching» throws up the issue that the paper is only useful for «clear sky» applications, when M's calculation is based on «
real sky» radiosonde
observations and «
real sky»
observations from a high tower.
Climate modeler Dr. Gavin Schmidt of NASA GISS comments on the failure of models to
match real world
observations.