Not exact matches
By comparing
volcanic activity to records of social unrest, the researchers found a correlation between the two that was too closely
matched to dismiss: «In years influenced by
volcanic eruptions, Nile flooding was generally diminished, leading to social stress that could trigger unrest and have other political and economic consequences,» Manning said.
Lesson 3 - Starter
Activity - Types of
Volcanic hazard - Hand out the card sort and students can
match the diagram of hazard with the correct name and explanation.
The acceleration and thinning do not
match the pattern I would expect from sub
volcanic activity.
Using a 1869 — 1882 base period and a 2007 − 2016 final period, which are well -
matched for
volcanic activity and influence from internal variability, medians are derived for ECS of 1.50 K (5 − 95 %: 1.05 − 2.45 K) and for TCR of 1.20 K (5 − 95 %: 0.9 − 1.7 K).
Lewis and Curry gave an estimate of TCR based on changes from 1930 — 50 to 1995 — 2011, periods that were well
matched for mean
volcanic activity and AMO state, and which delineate a period over which forcing approximated a 70 years ramp.
Using 1859 — 1882 for the base period and 1995 — 2011 for the final period, thus avoiding major
volcanic activity, median estimates are derived for ECS of 1.64 K and for TCR of 1.33 K. ECS 17 — 83 and 5 — 95 % uncertainty ranges are 1.25 — 2.45 and 1.05 — 4.05 K; the corresponding TCR ranges are 1.05 — 1.80 and 0.90 — 2.50 K. Results using alternative well -
matched base and final periods provide similar best estimates but give wider uncertainty ranges, principally reflecting smaller changes in average forcing.