The global mean removed here is
the mean SST averaged from 60 ° S to 60 ° N.
This view is supported by model results that relate the variability of the global -
mean SST to North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (30, 31, 35) and by the existence of an AMO - like variability in control runs without anthropogenic forcing (28).
«However, the global
mean SST is 0.06 °C warmer after 1980 in ERSST.v4 because of the buoy adjustments (not shown) and there are therefore impacts on the long - term trends compared to applying no adjustment to account for the change in observational platforms.»
When Folland and Parker's correction is adopted to the historical SST data, the systematic biases in monthly
mean SST anomalies have been corrected almost perfectly at three stations, and the biases at the other two stations have been reduced by 40 - 50 %.»
In addition,
the mean SST made in early 1980s (Figure 11b) revealed that the warmest area of the Mediterranean was the Levantine Basin, with a mean SST of 21.8 °C, and the coolest areas were the Gulf of Lions and the Ligurian Sea, with a mean SST of 16.9 °C.
This shifts the mean about 0.2 °C to less cooling and at the same time narrows the standard deviation of
mean SST cooling.
Thus the effect of sediment cores, which show strong local effects (e.g. in upwelling regions) is minimized, and
the mean SST anomaly should be more representative for large scale tropical conditions (dominated by large scale forcings, such as lowered CO2 concentrations).
A Cess climate sensitivity parameter λ can then be computed as λ = ΔTs / ΔG, where Ts denotes global
mean SST, G is TOA net radiative flux, and Δ indicates the difference between warming and present - day simulations»
Trenberth and Shea (2006) proposed a revised AMO index, subtracting the global
mean SST from the North Atlantic SST.
BTW, my view that it is the regional climate variation that is not associated with the global change is very consistent with Vecchi and Soden's work showing that MPI is approximated by subtracting tropical
mean SST from MDR SST:
The full quote: «Figure 1 shows the 5 - month running
mean SST time series for the Niño 3 and 3.4 regions relative to a base period climatology of 1950 — 79 given in Table 1.
Regional modes of variability, such as the AMO, largely cancel out and make a very small contribution in the global
mean SST changes.
Global
mean SST has increased by about 0.1 [degrees Celsius per] decade since 1951 but has no significant trend for the period 1998 - 2013.
Bottom: Annual (April to March)
mean SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (grey shading) and its median (black line).
We developed a statistical model to simulate trends in MHW properties due solely to a trend in
the mean SST.
We also find that changes in
mean SST alone can account for the majority of these changes, at least over the satellite record.
We then perturb this input with the change in the seasonal
mean SSTs and the seasonal mean state of the atmosphere as projected by an ensemble mean of global models for the end of the 21st century.
This means the SST different between the western and the east - central Pacific is not as much as it might be.
Posters wrote about the SST as if
they meant SST (time average over the whole ocean).
An increase in LW flux from the atmosphere
means SST has to go up as well because the net radiative heat loss decreases.
Not exact matches
That
meant the first generation of
SSTs were banned from flying at supersonic speed over land, which greatly reduced the appeal of supersonic aircraft.
To do so, we simulated a
SST time series which assumes its statistical properties (
mean, variance, autocorrelation) are stationary in time.
However, the Hadley Centre
SST data set60, 61 (HadSST3, v3.1.1.0) is not global in coverage: rather than interpolating over all space and time coordinates it consists of spatial
means within 5 ° × 5 ° bins, leading to missing values in the absence of data.
However, comparison of the global, annual
mean time series of near - surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding
SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million
SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
Note that the values are the
mean changes of SAT over land, and
SST over ocean.
Yet the paper states that «The best - fitting model (ECS = 2.4 K) reproduces well the reconstructed global
mean cooling of 2.2 K...» I assume the difference is that the global
mean cooling cited in the paper includes the contribution of
SST change, which, according to MARGO, is -1.9 ± 1.8 °C, whereas the -3.3 or -3.5 °C is for SAT.
Also they use a 5 × 5 ° grid for the oceans (or
SSTs and Shakun et al 2011) and 2 × 2 ° grid for the land, and because of more data in the oceans, the global
mean is probably too biased toward the ocean.
Overall,
SSTs containing sperm from the long - sperm producing male were more common across the entire UVJ, with 68.43 ± 7.39 % (
mean ± s.e.m.) of
SSTs containing long sperm across the 13 females examined (X2 = 127.32, d.f. = 12, p < 0.001).
VAM's decision to focus all efforts on the new two - version Lerma model plus the loss of luxury accessories
meant the discontinuation of Rally
SST for 1982.
Does this
mean that for the time being high
SSTs in the northward drift of the THC are coexisting with a lessening of the circulation overall?
All other things being equal, warmer
SSTs mean greater potential latent heat release, which ultimately is the energy source from which the storms derive their power.
I'm afraid you misunderstand the
meaning of the
SST anomaly.
What if Emanuel's observations turn out to
mean that the effect of
SST on hurricane intensity is larger than the theoretical prediction?
Therefore, the potential intensity depends mostly on variations of
SST (which controls hs *) for climate variations that do not affect the
mean temperature of the troposphere.
Suppose that
SSTs consist of two separable components — a
mean with a long run trend, and an oscillation:
...» the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long - term
mean; moreover, North Atlantic
SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific
SST will remain almost unchanged.
This
means that we can bypass the UHI troubles by accepting uncorrected
SSTs as valid — a huge data pool of uncorrupted temperatures.
Even if there is equal warming in the tropics, but the heat is not dissipated to the poles fast enough by the ocean currents, the area of high
SSTs will increase and more heat will dissipated by other
means like TC's.
A tropical
SST link would explain why the signal is strongest with a 10 to 20 year lag of the long - term changes (Waple et al, 2001), but the noise in the NAO record could
mean that you only see significant changes after long term averaging.
But today's anomaly,
SST [2005]--
SST [1961 - 1990], depends on both the GW trend in the
mean a and the oscillation, in which case the current anomaly is influenced by GW.
-- «But global warming very definitely DOES affect the temperature of the tropical free troposphere, so it is not possible to conclude, as alas many have, that increasing
SST per se
means increasing tropical cyclone intensity (though it usually does signify more TC - related rain).»
If you redefine «anomaly» as
SST [t]--
SST [1961 - 1990]-- a * (t - 1976), then the anomaly is independent of GW, but has little physical
meaning w.r.t. hurricanes and is impractical to implement.
But it's fairly well established that warmer
SST means more hurricanes in general, but not always.
There is virtually universal agreement that average hurricane intensity on Earth is a straightforward function of ocean - atmosphere temperatures; thus, rising
SSTs will inevitably
mean more intense hurricanes.
Here the adjustment is determined by (1) calculating the collocated ship - buoy
SST difference over the global ocean from 1982 - 2012, (2) calculating the global areal weighted average of ship - buoy
SST difference, (3) applying a 12 - month running filter to the global averaged ship - buoy
SST difference, and (4) evaluating the
mean difference and its STD of ship - buoy
SSTs based on the data from 1990 to 2012 (the data are noisy before 1990 due to sparse buoy observations).
My understanding of the hurricane debate is as follows:
SST's ought to rise with global warming and all else equal that ought to
mean greater hurricane reach / activity, but we don't really understand the «all else» yet.
This
means that you start with ice cover and then you simulate the
SST and let this go into calculating the
SST.
However, comparison of the global, annual
mean time series of near - surface temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding
SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive Ocean - Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million
SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
ie deviation of
SST from some localised equilibrium, rather than
meaning rate of change of...
«On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global
mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal
SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century
SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»