Not exact matches
For the
change in annual
mean surface air
temperature in the various cases, the model experiments show the familiar pattern documented
in the SAR with a maximum warming
in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and a minimum
in the Southern
Ocean (due to ocean heat uptak
Ocean (due to
ocean heat uptak
ocean heat uptake)(2)
The interaction of the
ocean and atmosphere
means that these
changes in sea surface
temperatures are translated into
changes in wind direction and strength.
On shorter time scales, however,
changes in heat storage (i.e.,
ocean heat uptake or release) can affect global
mean temperature.
ECS is defined
in terms of global
mean temperature change, not separately for land and
ocean.
I particularly enjoyed the slides that, when combined (1) provided an overview of hotter and cooler CO2 molecules as it relates to how they are seen from outer space and from profile — because this will make it easier for me to explain this process to others; (2) walked through the volcanic and solar activity vs assigning importance to CO2
changes — because this another way to help make it clearer, too, but
in another way; (3) discussed CO2 induced warming and
ocean rise vs different choices we might make — because this helps point out why every day's delay matters; and (4) showed Figure 1 from William Nordhaus» «Strategies for Control of Carbon Dioxide» and then super-imposed upon that the global
mean temperature in colors showing pre-paper and post-paper periods — because this helps to show just how far back it was possible to make reasoned projections without the aid of a more nuanced and modern understanding.
Temporarily, you can also store heat
in the
ocean or release it, but the scope for
changes in global
mean temperature through this mechanism is quite limited.
[Response: Theoretically you could have a
change in ocean circulation that could cause a drop
in global
mean temperature even while the total heat content of the climate system increased.
Anthropogenic climate
change will
mean an increased average
temperature for the
oceans and possible
changes in current systems that could locally amplify or reduce warming and can alter nutrient cycling resulting
in changes in the amount of nutrients available for the growth of phytoplankton, the plant plankton that are the base of the food chain.
By comparing modelled and observed
changes in such indices, which include the global
mean surface
temperature, the land -
ocean temperature contrast, the
temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the
mean magnitude of the annual cycle
in temperature over land and the
mean meridional
temperature gradient
in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.
By preventing any persistent build up of
temperature differential between air and water it also prevents any
changes in air
temperature affecting the
temperature of the
oceans and thereby
changing the air
temperature by indirect
means.
To point out just a couple of things: —
oceans warming slower (or cooling slower) than lands on long - time trends is absolutely normal, because water is more difficult both to warm or to cool (I
mean, we require both a bigger heat flow and more time); at the contrary, I see as a non-sense theory (made by some serrist, but don't know who) that
oceans are storing up heat, and that suddenly they will release such heat as a positive feedback: or the water warms than no heat can be considered ad «stored» (we have no phase
change inside
oceans, so no latent heat) or
oceans begin to release heat but
in the same time they have to cool (because they are losing heat); so, I don't feel strange that
in last years land
temperatures for some series (NCDC and GISS) can be heating up while
oceans are slightly cooling, but I feel strange that they are heating up so much to reverse global trend from slightly negative / stable to slightly positive; but,
in the end, all this is not an evidence that lands» warming is led by UHI (but, this effect, I would not exclude it from having a small part
in temperature trends for some regional area, but just small); both because, as writtend, it is normal to have waters warming slower than lands, and because lands»
temperatures are often measured
in a not so precise way (despite they continue to give us a global uncertainity
in TT values which is barely the instrumental's one)-- but, to point out, HadCRU and MSU of last years (I
mean always 2002 - 2006) follow much better waters»
temperatures trend; — metropolis and larger cities
temperature trends actually show an increase
in UHI effect, but I think the sites are few, and the covered area is very small worldwide, so the global effect is very poor (but it still can be sensible for regional effects); but I would not run out a small warming trend for airport measurements due mainly to three things: increasing jet planes traffic, enlarging airports (then more buildings and more asphalt — if you follow motor sports, or simply live
in a town / city, you will know how easy they get very warmer than air during day, and how much it can slow night - time cooling) and overall having airports nearer to cities (if not becoming an area inside the city after some decade of hurban growth, e.g. Milan - Linate); — I found no point about UHI
in towns and villages; you will tell me they are not large cities; but,
in comparison with 20-40-60 years ago when they were «countryside», many small towns and villages have become part of larger hurban areas (at least
in Europe and Asia) so examining just larger cities would not be enough
in my opinion to get a full view of UHI effect (still remembering that it has a small global effect: we can say many matters are due to UHI instead of GW, maybe even that a small part of measured GW is due to UHI, and that GW measurements are not so precise to make us able to make good analisyses and predictions, but not that GW is due to UHI).
Sensitivity experiments show that atmospheric CO2 closely follows decadal -
mean temperature changes when
changes in ocean circulation and
ocean - sediment interactions are not important.
The analysis uses a global energy budget model that links ECS and TCR to
changes in global
mean surface
temperature (GMST), radiative forcing and the rate of
ocean heat uptake between a base and a final period.
captd, you can have the
ocean water flowing around
in all kinds of ways, it doesn't
change the
mean surface
temperature, only redistributes it.
They compared their storm surge index to
changes in global surface
temperature, to
temperatures in the Main Development Region (MDR; a part of the Atlantic
Ocean where most hurricanes form), and to MDR warming relative to the tropical
mean temperatures (rMDR).
That
means building the global scientific network to monitor
changes in the
ocean's vital signs: pH,
temperature and dissolved oxygen.
The most likely candidate for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar variability (because I can think of no other force that can
change or reverse
in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar variability which I feel are a significant player
in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land /
ocean arrangements,
mean land elevation,
mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the
mean state of the climate (average global
temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation / oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova
in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles.
22 Land areas are projected to warm more than the
oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes Annual
mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average
in 2085 = 3.1 o C
Furthermore there is no evidence of what the increase
in SST actually
means and I would say it
means the hook that is the
temperature gradient of the first few cm of the
ocean simply shifts a little left or right but doesn't
change shape appreciably.
«These shifts were accompanied by breaks
in the global
mean temperature trend with respect to time, presumably associated with either discontinuities
in the global radiative budget due to the global reorganization of clouds and water vapor or dramatic
changes in the uptake of heat by the deep
ocean.
ECS is defined
in terms of global
mean temperature change, not separately for land and
ocean.
As we know from South African penguins, overfishing and
changes in ocean temperatures are affecting their prey source, which
means the populations of the penguins are affected.
Changes in mean global
ocean pH / pCO2, due to uptake of anthropogenic CO2, will reduce pH (ca − 0.3 to 0.5 units / 500 + µatm), and global warming will contribute to increased sea surface
temperature (+1.1 to 6.4 °C), by 2100 [1 — 4,7].
Alexander M. A., J. D. Scott, K. D. Friedland, K. E. Mills, J. A. Nye, A. J. Pershing and A. C. Thomas (January 2018): Projected sea surface
temperatures over the 21st century:
Changes in the
mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern
Oceans.
As the forcing and resulting
temperature changes are small, internal variability has a significant effect on simulated
changes even when comparing 25 year
means, with
changes varying
in sign over some land areas and most of the
ocean.
Feb 8: Projected sea surface
temperatures over the 21st century:
Changes in the
mean, variability and extremes for Large Marine Ecosystem regions of Northern
Oceans
It could be evenly distributed
in the global
ocean causing an almost imperceptable rise
in its
temperature well beyond the margin of detection error or it could be rejected by more efficient
means of transport from surface to space or by a
change which prevents it from ever reaching the surface
in the first place.
Girma Orssengo rightly demonstrates that one can not determine climate sensitivity empirically from observed
changes in CO2 concentration and
in global
mean surface
temperature unless one either studies periods that are multiples of ~ 60 years to cancel the transient effects of the warming and cooling phases of the Pacific and related
ocean oscillations or studies periods centered on a phase - transition
in the
ocean oscillations.
For the
change in annual
mean surface air
temperature in the various cases, the model experiments show the familiar pattern documented
in the SAR with a maximum warming
in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and a minimum
in the Southern
Ocean (due to ocean heat uptake) evident in the zonal mean for the CMIP2 models (Figure 9.8) and the geographical patterns for all categories of models (Figure 9
Ocean (due to
ocean heat uptake) evident in the zonal mean for the CMIP2 models (Figure 9.8) and the geographical patterns for all categories of models (Figure 9
ocean heat uptake) evident
in the zonal
mean for the CMIP2 models (Figure 9.8) and the geographical patterns for all categories of models (Figure 9.10).