One day, or week or even month of unusually cold weather does
n't mean climate change isn't happening.
After a thorough read of the three positions described in Climate Dialogue, I conclude that many well
meaning climate scientists are working hard to understand this complex messy system.
Some researchers thought that
meant climate just isn't that important a factor in tropical flu outbreaks.
Thinking about the problem in terms of temperature increase for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (which we will probably exceed with current policies and energy trends), even studies that reinforce the skeptical narrative of low
mean climate sensitivity leaves some chance of warming greatly exceeding international goals and historical boundaries (say a 5 percent chance of warming exceeding 4 °C).
Lucarini, V., and G.L. Russell, 2002: Comparison
of mean climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere between National Centers for Environmental Prediction and two atmosphere - ocean model forced runs.
Variations in 20th century trends which do not correlate to c02 are routinely dismissed as either aerosols or heat going into the oceans, when it is very clear these are related to PDO cycles,
which means climate sensitivity to c02 must be overstated.
It is encouraging that the
global mean climate sensitivity parameter for cases involving lower stratospheric O3 changes and that for CO2 changes (viz., doubling) are reasonably similar in Christiansen (1999) while being within about 25 % of a central value in Hansen et al. (1997a).
I will address this point in a separate response to Manzi, but Goklany makes the classic mistake of thinking that stabilizing concentrations at 750 ppm
means the climate shifts to a new, static state.
«High latitude places often have late climate departures, but that does not
necessarily mean climate change won't impact those places,» Mora said.
Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top - producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global
annual mean climate changes.
Even
for mean climate, no comprehensive assessment of the surface climatology of variable or high resolution models has been attempted.
21 See, for example, Odile Blanchard and James Perhaus, «Does the Bush Administration's climate
policy mean climate protection?»
However, Bossuet et al. (1998) reached a somewhat different conclusion when they increased the vertical resolution in the ARPEGE model; they concluded that increasing vertical resolution produced little impact on the
simulated mean climate of their model.
Here we present a new index of the year when the
projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
-RRB-, even studies that reinforce the skeptical narrative of
low mean climate sensitivity leaves some chance of warming greatly exceeding international goals and historical boundaries (say a
Increasing this threshold enhances the tropical intraseasonal variability in the model and produces a more coherent MJO as well as a drier and
colder mean climate in the model.
Since the heat storage capacity of the ocean is > 1000 times that of the atmosphere, having a solid handle on all these is crucial to accurately projecting even average
mean climate across multi-decadal time.
Such varied migration
rates mean climate change is ripping apart the delicate connections between mountainside species, the team concludes.
Kane and his team also observed that unlike Earth, which experiences climatic changes such as an ice age because of slow variations in its orbit around the sun, Wolf 1061c's orbit changes at a much faster rate, which could
mean the climate there could be quite chaotic.
But if further studies bear this connection out, perhaps it'll kill the idea that cold
weather means no climate change... and help keep snowballs off the senate floor.
IPCC AR5 WG1 Ch.5 says: «The PETM was marked by a massive carbon release and corresponding global ocean acidification (Zachos et al., 2005; Ridgwell and Schmidt, 2010) and, with low confidence, global warming of 4 °C to 7 °C relative to
pre-PETM mean climate (Sluijs et al., 2007; McInerney and Wing, 2011).
Pachauri outlined the potential for major changes to the climate system, which could overwhelm human response strategies - breakdown of the thermohaline circulation, disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, a shift in
mean climate towards an El Nino - like state, reduced carbon sink capacity, methane release from hydrates, and a rearrangement of biome distributions.
Here, we investigate the extent to which these equatorial cold biases are related to
mean climate biases generated in the extra-tropics and then communicated to the equator via the oceanic subtropical cells (STCs).
Climate change by 2060 was computed as the difference (air temperature) or ratio (precipitation and solar radiation) of
monthly mean climate between the GCM (unforced) control and 2xCO2 simulations at GCM grid boxes coinciding with the crop modelling sites (Figure 13.1 b).